Nikola Vucevic’s rebounding is down, but that is no problem
Nikola Vucevic made his name as an automatic double double machine and prolific rebounder. His numbers are down this year though. But it hasn’t mattered.
Early in the season, there was a statistic that sent some raised eyebrows through the Orlando Magic.
Nikola Vucevic’s rebounding was down. At least the raw number was. He was no longer grabbing boards at the prodigious rate he had his first two years in the league. The team was doing fine relatively on the glass, but Vucevic himself was not getting the number he wanted.
And this was even with a small lineup out there too when Tobias Harris was playing power forward.
It is true, the team was doing a better job rebounding as a group. Victor Oladipo saw his rebounding increase and Tobias Harris has long been a quality rebounder for his size and position.
Still, even Vucevic has acknowledged he would like to see his individual rebounding numbers increase. He told Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel before the Magic’s game against the Brooklyn Nets last week it is something he is aware of:
"“A lot of the times, I’m right there. The ball is going my way, but I don’t react to it. Or, a few times, I let the offensive guy get it over me. It’s just things I need to do as a big man.”"
Vucevic’s rebounding numbers are down. He is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game this year, his lowest since joining the Magic, and his 9.7 rebounds per 36 minutes are the first time he has averaged less than 10 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career.
Where Vucevic is struggling particularly is on the defensive glass. He posted a 26.0 percent defensive rebound rate last year. For the first time in his career, his defensive rebound rate has crept to less than 20 percent at 19.0 percent.
These are all numbers that could correct themselves — Vucevic after all still has a healthy 15 double-doubles in 36 games played.
Where Vucevic has started to see his rebounding drop is in contested rebounds. This year, Vucevic is grabbing 23.1 percent of contested defensive rebound opportunities (a rebound where an opponent is at least 3.5 feet away from him) compared to 24.0 percent last year.
The Magic’s team rebounding is about the same as it was last year — 76.4 defensive rebound rate (13th in the league) this year compared to 76.0 defensive rebound rate (eighth). The team does not give up a ton of offensive rebounds. And the team rebounds together well.
“I think we’ve been doing a better job in that area rebounding as a team,” Vucevic said in November. “That’s what we have to do now. Everything on defense, helping each and being unselfish, that’s what it takes to win. Everything we do, we do it as one.”
It is still on the defensive side of the ball that the Magic and Vucevic have seen his numbers sharply decrease. Teams have begun to take advantage of this in many different ways.
Nylon Calculus recently did a deep dive on the concept of “free rebounds,” or uncontested defensive rebounds. In looking at Pau Gasol, Seth Partnow revealed some interesting facts about these kinds of rebounds. Centers will grab about 50 percent of their rebounds on these free rebounds.
"Looking at the totals for everyone in the league, including the half-value of free rebounds and the minor penalty for failed attempts to offensive rebound, we’re left with total rebounds equaling about 71% of the actual number of rebounds. So to make the numbers more familiar to the scale we are used to from the box score, I used the ratio of “new” and “old” rebounds as an index with which to derive the following “adjusted” rebound totals:"
Here, the numbers show Vucevic is slightly above average as a rebounder. For his position, Vucevic grabs fewer uncontested rebounds. The rebound value metric shows Vucevic gets difficult rebounds for his team and is fighting for contested boards.
Where the story gets difficult is that Vucevic does concede a lot of rebounds. That comes part and parcel to having to fight for contested rebounds all the time.
The average center gives up about a 10 percent offensive rebound rate. Vucevic is giving up 10.7 percent offensive rebound rates. That is a bit below average.
Vucevic has also given up the third most contested offensive rebounds in the league through Jan. 12.
All this adds up to a complicated story about Vucevic and his rebounding numbers.
Vucevic is grabbing fewer rebounds as a percentage, but teammates are stepping up and grabbing more of those uncontested rebounds. His numbers are suffering in that regard.
He is doing a decent job grabbing contested rebounds, but is conceding a fair amount of offensive rebounds. Why this is happening is not exactly clear.
The Magic though are still an effective rebounding team. It seems as though the Magic are gang rebounding better and helping Vucevic out there. Overall Orlando can feel good about its job on the boards.
There are still moments though where Vucevic’s declining rebounding numbers show up on the offensive glass.
Next: Nikola Vucevic faces long odds for first All-Star Game
Overall rebounding is not a huge concern and neither are Vucevic’s lower rebounding numbers. The struggles are more anecdotal, showing up sometimes at the worst times late in games.