Orlando Magic Daily
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Trends or Mirages: Breaking down this year’s Orlando Magic

By Brett David Roberts

Mar 25, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) and guard Victor Oladipo (5) high five after he made a basket in the act of getting fouled against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at Amway Center. Atlanta Hawks defeated the Orlando Magic 95-83. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 25, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) and guard Victor Oladipo (5) high five after he made a basket in the act of getting fouled against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at Amway Center. Atlanta Hawks defeated the Orlando Magic 95-83. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic, Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
Dec 20, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Paul Millsap tries to block the shot from Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) during the first quarter of a basketball game at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /

Mirage: Elfrid Payton’s Passable Three-Point Shooting

Elfrid Payton is not shooting the ball better, even if he appears more confident and ready to shoot the ball. His overall field goal percentage is down 1.3 percentage points, and he is particularly bad anywhere outside of the restricted area really.

Payton is knocking down a lower percentage from 3-10 feet, and he is particularly bad from 16 feet to the 3-point line (just 27 percent after shooting 34.5 percent in that range as a rookie).

But the biggest mirage of his shooting has to be his 3-point stroke.

Payton hit just 26.2 percent of his threes in his first NBA season and that figure has inexplicably leaped to 31.3 percent despite him shooting worse from nearly everywhere else on the court.

This is an example of a small sample size being deceiving, because 31 percent nearly is at the passable 34-percent mark at which the 3-point shot is profitable. He has hit 10 of 32 on the season, which is improved, but expect the figure to fall to worse than 30 percent as the season wears on.

Payton’s shooting stroke is much the same with almost no structural improvements, and it seems unreasonable to expect sustained success or improvement just upon watching his release. His elbow still juts out away from the ball, his palm still often touches the ball, and his guide hand is coming off far too soon in his stroke.

Until Payton makes some structural changes to his shot, it seems like pure insanity to expect much improvement.

His 31 percent is hardly shooting the lights out of the gym. But, brace yourselves, because it might get a lot uglier as his percentages normalize later in the season.

Next: D-Fence! D-Fence!