The Orlando Magic have three guards capable of starting and playing at a starter’s level. Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier are hard to sort.
Two weeks ago, Scott Skiles had to face a difficult decision.
The Cleveland Cavaliers had just picked apart his Orlando Magic but the lackluster third quarter effort particularly left him wanting more form his starting unit. The energy had been down for that group for several games and coming out of the locker room had been a particular problem.
Skiles was left with a difficult decision for sure on who to take out of the lineup.
He ultimately took out the Magic’s second overall pick from the 2012 Draft in Victor Oladipo and stuck with Evan Fournier, who was playing much better overall. The decision somewhat previewed a difficult decision that could come this spring at the trade deadline and the summer when the Magic have to decide how much Evan Fournier should get in free agency.
That is a debate for another day.
The lineup change has charged up the Magic though. It has proven to be the correct move in the short term for the team. Orlando is 6-2 since the lineup change. Victor Oladipo has begun producing a lot more, averaging 17.0 points per game and shooting a 46.8 percent effective field goal percentage after posting 12.8 points per game and a 41.2 percent effective field goal percentage.
It does not really take any stats to see Oladipo is playing much better or at least producing a lot more. It also does not take many stats to see Evan Fournier has taken a bit of a dip since the lineup change too.
In the 14 games before the Magic made their lineup change, Fournier averaged 18.8 points per game with a 54.5 percent effective field goal percentage. But since the lineup change (the last eight games), Fournier is averaging 9.9 points per game with a 45.8 percent effective field goal percentage.
Again, the numbers speak for themselves in many ways.
But again, they do not paint a complete picture. The Magic have played very well since the lineup change. And with Fournier struggling now, the suggestion has come up that if the team should struggle, perhaps the Magic should move Oladipo into the starting lineup and bring Fournier off the bench.
Once again, the Magic’s lineups are a complete mystery it seems — full of promise and potential but also pitfalls and problems.
The rotation seems, as Skiles has said numerous times this season, has revealed itself. Zach Lowe of ESPN.com put it pretty bluntly what the decision is facing Skiles the rest of the year:
"On a simple level, the lineup change is about Evan Fournier emerging as a flat-out better option at 2-guard — and better overall player — than Oladipo. Critics slammed Rob Hennigan for “only” nabbing Fournier in exchange for Arron Afflalo on an expiring deal, but Hennigan did his diligence canvassing the league for better packages, and he understood how good Fournier could be.He’s longer than Oladipo, and a more sound defender. Oladipo is manic, and manic players always look like they are doing something on defense. But what he’s really doing a lot of the time is hopping out of Orlando’s scheme, and leaving a shooter open. Fournier sticks within the system, and he’s more rugged than you’d think."
Oladipo certainly is more willing to take risks. But he also has more talent and potential than Fournier. What the Magic saw in Fournier at the beginning of the season — floor spacer, solid at running pick and rolls and attacking holes in rotating defenses — is likely what he is.
The question is whether Oladipo realizes that future and whether he fits with the other pieces the Magic have in place too.
that was another question the Magic’s lineup change raised too. One that has not gone away even in eight very successful games. It was a question Lowe raised about the Oladipo-Payton pairing, a duo that has little shooting ability that need space to create driving lanes and create for others and score.
Splitting them up might be the best way to get the most out of both. That may not feel right considering they are two of the best players on the roster, but it might be the way to get the most out of them.
The numbers bear this out too.
| Combo | Minutes | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Average | 1076 | 100.92 | 98.5 | 48.2 | 25.4 | 14.8 |
| Payton-Oladipo-Fournier | 249 | 94.1 | 102.8 | 43.6 | 23.6 | 13.1 |
| Payton-Oladipo | 388 | 96.2 | 101.1 | 44.2 | 27.6 | 14.1 |
| Payton-Fournier | 538 | 97.0 | 99.1 | 46.3 | 25.1 | 14.6 |
| Oladipo-Fournier | 346 | 102.0 | 104.5 | 48.2 | 25.1 | 13.2 |
The lineup data reveals the team is not great with these three players on the floor at the same time and really not great with any combination of the guards.
The Magic’s supposed backcourt of the future has struggled to fit together in any iteration the team wants to put out there so far.
Orlando’s most effective guard duo this year by net rating that has played at least 250 minutes together is that Payton-Fournier duo. It does not exactly breed confidence that these guards can fit together with about any lineup — and it is important to note, the two-man and three-man lineups do not account for who those groups are playing with.
The numbers do change dramatically when looking at the last eight games, the team’s good play is a partial explanation, but these lineups appear to be used much more effectively:
| Combo | Minutes | Off. Rtg. | Def. Rtg. | eFG% | O.Reb.% | TO% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Average | 384 | 102.8 | 94.5 | 49.6 | 25.4 | 14.7 |
| Payton-Oladipo-Fournier | 25 | 114.7 | 89.8 | 49.0 | 25.0 | 7.4 |
| Payton-Oladipo | 129 | 105.2 | 91.3 | 47.9 | 29.3 | 14.2 |
| Payton-Fournier | 162 | 104.5 | 97.5 | 50.2 | 24.8 | 13.1 |
| Oladipo-Fournier | 58 | 113.0 | 96.2 | 60.1 | 20.9 | 13.5 |
The Magic have seen a lot more effectiveness even from the Payton-Oladipo-Fournier grouping in very limited minutes compared to the entire season. Orlando is playing really well at this stage of the season and in the last eight games.
The rotations had indeed revealed itself. This remains a small sample size at the moment but it looks like however Skiles chooses to employ these lineups, it is working.
It does not give the Magic much of a glimpse of what their future could be. Would starting Payton and Oladipo together be more effective? The early numbers seem to suggest so. But it should also be noted, Oladipo is playing less with Payton now as a percentage of his minutes than before and there remain doubts two non-shooters can man a backcourt.
For now, the duo seems to be working. It should remain an option Skiles can turn to should the team struggle.
The same concerns that existed when Skiles considered the lineup change very much remain.
It is clear the Magic are still seeking the right combination and the right group to provide consistency. They are still seeking the right fit for their group.
Next: Where would Victor Oladipo rank among Magic Sixth Men?
And certainly still seeking answers as decision dates creep up on the calendar.