How Elfrid Payton’s shooting improvement helps the Orlando Magic

Elfrid Payton worked a lot on his shooting this offseason, and his work has led to increased confidence and output. That could greatly help the Magic.

A year ago, it seemed inconceivable Orlando Magic rookie point guard with the very intriguing hairstyle would be considered a jump-shooting threat.

Last year, Elfrid Payton’s jump shooting was a huge liability, and teams were able to pack the paint with Payton on the court, stopping the offense from being able to drive easily.

Almost a quarter of the way through this season, the narrative has changed, as Payton has showed some strides in his shooting ability.

Specifically, he has improved his free-throw shooting and 3-point shooting from his rookie season.

Last year, he shot 55.1 percent from the line and 26.2 percent from three. He did not show much confidence shooting from three either, only averaging about one attempt every two games.

He only shot 2.6 free throws per game and 8.6 field goals per game in averaging 8.6 points per game.

This season, his stroke has improved, and he has a lot more confidence.

Despite missing his only 3-point attempt last game in Utah, he is shooting 33.3 percent from three and 71.4 percent from the line. He is taking 1.3 threes per game, and 11.3 field goals per game.

Albeit a small sample size, it is still a very good sign to see his shooting and confidence improve. Free-throw shooting is often a good sign for overall jump-shooting ability, and if Payton can sustain his improved free-throw shooting, then it would lead one to believe he can sustain or even further improve his jump shooting.

Good 3-point shooting leads to more success, and Payton’s improvement there could really help the team win more games.

There was a 0.69 correlation between 3-point percentage and wins last year, and the Magic’s place in the top half of the league in that stat (14th out of 30 team) has helped them open the season with an 11-8 record.

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While Payton’s free throw attempts have not increased from his rookie year (2.6 per game), his overall confidence has gone up. He is taking more shots, and in turn, scoring 10.9 points per game.

He is not afraid to attack the basket and get to the line, specifically at the end of games. That has allowed him to be an even bigger part of the offense. His usage rating has increased to 20.2 so far this year.

His field goal percentage is at 38.1 percent, which is very low, but that is partially due to shot selection.

He is shooting about 24 percent on mid-range jumpers from at least 15 feet out, and about 25 percent of his shot attempts come from that range. Those are generally bad shots for most players to take, and it appears Payton’s insistence on forcing those shots has lowered his field goal percentage.

If Payton can continue to build confidence in his 3-point shot, he may look to take more of those, and that would help the offense.

While Payton has shot 27 percent overall from mid-range, he is shooting 333. percent on corner threes and 33.3 percent from above-the-break threes.

He has been getting space for his threes, and that has helped him convert.

He is shooting 33.3 percent from three when the closest defender is between 4 and 6 feet away from him, and 41.7 percent from three when the closest defender is more than 6 feet away, according to NBA.com.

If he continues taking more of those shots and converting them at near or above average numbers, defenses will be forced to close out on him, and that would open the court up for drives for himself and his teammates.

That is likely the most important goal of Payton’s improved shooting.

A successful example of this is in the case of Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook.

Westbrook has not shot better than 33 percent from three in any season, and he has been at 29.9 percent the past two seasons. However, defenses still defend him at the perimeter, which allows him to blow by them and get shots at the rim or shots for his teammates.

The Magic hope Payton will get to that point.

There was a 0.47 correlation between 3-point attempts and wins last season, higher than almost every other variable, so Payton shooting more threes at a respectable number would likely help the team.

The Houston Rockets found success on the floor last season when subpar shooters, such as Josh Smith and Corey Brewer, were taking 3-point shots. Both players attempted 3.5 threes per game, had percentages worse than Payton’s current number (33 percent for Smith, 28.4 percent for Brewer), yet finished with significantly higher offensive ratings than Payton has (101.9 points per 100 possessions for Smith, 102.7 for Brewer).

The threat of the threes opens up space for drives, and those deep shots could also potentially lead to offensive rebounds.

It appears if the Magic do want Payton to shoot more, it should be in the flow of the offense, and not from pick and roll opportunities.

Through 85 pick and roll opportunities with Payton as the ball-handler, the Magic are scoring 0.48 points per possession, with Payton having a 28.4 effective field goal percentage and no three pointers made.

Meanwhile, he shoots 31.6 percent on catch and shoot threes.

An interesting number for Payton is that he is 7 for 15 from three at home, but only 1 for 9 on the road. That is likely a statistically insignificant stat, but one potential explanation could be that Payton is more confident at home.

There is still a different confidence about Payton. The shots may not be going in consistently yet, but he is not afraid to let it fly.

If Payton continues to play with confidence, as he has the past few games with this new starting lineup, he should look to take more of these threes, and hopefully stay at a decent percentage.

One potentially bad sign is Payton is 2 for 8 from three since the home win vs Utah on Nov. 13, and 16 for 25 from the free throw line in that span. He was 6 for 16 and 19 for 24 respectively before that point.

It is definitely too early to tell if this improvement in his shooting will continue or if it is just a case of an early season hot streak.

Next: Jason Smith is a secret weapon for Orlando Magic

One thing that is happening, however, is he is shooting more. Teams may look to guard his shot more closely, which would open up the court for penetration. All he has to do is keep taking the shot.