Do the Orlando Magic have a problem with fatigue?

Looking at the stats, one thing becomes clear: In mid-November, the Orlando Magic are wearing down as the game goes on. The reason though is unclear.

Much has been written, on this site and others, on the Orlando Magic’s youth, athleticism and potential.

Though they cannot be accused of a breakneck, push-it-up-the-floor, seven-seconds-or-less pace (the team ranks eight in fast break points per game and 17th in overall pace), they are also not a glacier.

Most would agree this is a team certainly capable of running and showing off some hops.

So despite this athleticism and youth, is it possible the Orlando Magic have a problem with fatigue?

There can be two types of fatigue in the NBA. Overall fatigue would be the cumulative effect of the long grind of a NBA season — 82 games, back to backs, practice and all the other little commitments building up and taking their toll on body and soul.

The other type would be game fatigue: the long build up of 48 minutes (or more) of (assumedly) full effort eventually wearing a player down minute by minute.

Looking at overall fatigue, the schedule has been fairly kind to the Magic so far. They have only played three back-to-backs. In these games they are 1-2. The two losses came against the Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards, while the lone win came against the 0-12 Philadelphia 76ers (so a pinch of salt may be needed when examining this game).

It would seem these back to backs do manage to tire out the Magic, though a few more examples are needed.

In today’s age of premier recovery strategies, charter flights and daily naps, the negative effects are severely reduced from the 1960s, ’70s and even ’80s. Nevertheless, traveling thousands of miles simply does exhaust people.

The Magic have played exactly half of their games away from Orlando, but have won just two of those games. It is also worth noting two of these away games were the second half of back-to-backs mentioned above.

Upon closer examination, extra detail comes to the surface of these away games. Only two of these games were played in the Western Conference (and one was in New Orleans, which is a mere 600 miles, or a one-hour, 40-minute flight away from Orlando). If the Magic have struggled with away games on their effective doorstep, how are they going to fare when they really start racking up frequent flier miles?

For example, the Magic have a five-game Western road trip in the beginning of December which will include flying from Minnesota to Utah, to California, to Colorado and Arizona, before heading home, all in nine days. This could be a very trying time for the Magic. It will certainly be telling.

It is also worth noting the Magic have already played four overtime period in the young season. That is almost another half a game playing on already tired legs. While the Magic have been home for the past week, Scott Skiles has said he and his staff are working on getting practice in while mixing in rest to help the team recover.

Almost every team will feel the effects of a NBA season at some point, but then again, the NBA season is not yet a calendar month old.

While there is an argument this is just what happens in an NBA season, what about this in-game fatigue?

Surely the Magic, with this previously mentioned youth and freshness, are not going to tire in an NBA game.

Yet again, the stats tell the story.

In the first quarter, the Magic are on fire. They average 26.8 points (tied for third in the NBA). After the rest of halftime, in the third quarter, they average 24.2 (good for 20th), but in the second and fourth quarter, where less rest has been had and the accumulative effect of fatigue is taking its toll, they only average 23.8 (26th in the NBA) and 22.9 (27th in the NBA). The net ratings and efficiency metrics also show a gradual drop as the game progresses.

Down from third and 20th in rankings to 26th and 27th. That is a big drop. The team loses offensive mojo as the game goes on and even though the defense keeps it up for the most part, it cannot carry the entire load.

The end effect is clear too, the team struggles in the 4th quarter. Fatigue may go some way to explaining this.

Even the free-throw shooting, which many will cite as a measure of how tired a team is falls from 83.3 percent (third in the NBA) to 76.8 percent (16th in the NBA) between the third and fourth quarters.

So the message is clear: The Orlando Magic get tired, defend worse and score less as the game goes on and with the less rest they have.

The question becomes: Why?

Could it be youth and a lack of veteran leadership? One can only speculate.

Much more likely, however, is the minutes played.

Scott Skiles is still new to this team. This team is still new to each other in many ways and still new to what is being asked of them. There has to be a period of finding out exactly what rotations work, exactly how many minutes each player can play, who should be playing what in back-to-backs.

The team has three players in the top 50 for minutes per game (which is actually a lot for one team) with Evan Fournier actually second in minutes per game behind James Harden. Skiles may simply need to adjust his rotations to let the fresh legs keep coming and propping up the team.

Skiles cannot be blamed for wanting to get the most out of his talented starters of course. The team is struggling for .500 and even in the East it can be a tough road to climb back from. A good start to the season is incredibly important. But could these starters-focused minutes be more doing more damage than good.

Of course, two of his major contributors off the bench are still inexperienced in Mario Hezonja and Aaron Gordon. When they have gained some of Skiles’ trust, the minutes may even out some, and lead to this balanced attack the Magic should be capable of delivering.

If not, then this could be a dangerous game to play. As mentioned above, heavy minutes now will weigh down all the more as the season goes on, and frustration from losing games that the team were winning earlier on in the game, could only add more woe and tiredness.

Whatever the cause, the progressive deterioration of this team’s play in November is not a good look for a team.

When that overall fatigue comes later in the year, it could hit the team hard if they do not find their focus and physical perseverance now. And they need to find a way to minimize the drop offs between quarters because one thing will become very apparent.

It is much easier to be tired when the losses start piling up.