How Can Andrew Nicholson Improve?

A Negative Effect

Despite these positive statistics, they also show Nicholson has had an overall negative effect on the team.

Other than the net rating, you can see this effect by looking at his real plus-minus stats, which measures a player’s overall effect on the game while factoring in teammates and opponents.

He was 88th out of 95 registered power forwards in ESPN.com’s offensive real plus/minus with -3.12 points per 100 possessions. He was 78th out of all power forwards with a -1.02 defensive real plus/minus, and his -4.14 overall real plus/minus was 88th out of all power forwards.

He was also 87th out of all power forwards in ESPN.com’s measurement of wins above replacement player with -0.54, meaning he was valued as adding negative wins to the team.

He only shot 31.7 percent from the 3-point line, which would give the team 95.1 points per possession. The three point shot is a valuable shot because it yields a higher than average points per possession. It was something the Magic tried to add to his game after he did not shoot a single 3-pointer his rookie year.

He specifically struggled with shooting from the corners, shooting 25 percent from the left corner and 16.7 percent from the right.

But in Nicholson’s case, the offense would expect below average output when he shoots threes in general. It led to him getting buried further and further down the depth chart.

Overall, he was 11th out of 15 Magic players with a 47.1 percent effective field goal percentage.

Although he was fourth on the team in field goal attempts per 100 possessions, he was 12th in free throw attempts and ninth in three point attempts. His free throw percentage of 60 percent still would have yielded an expected 1.20 points per possession when he gets to the line, so that would still be a positive possession and he should look to increase his attempts there.

A way to do that would be to have him work closer to the basket, something Scott Skiles appears to be trying to do. The way he was used the last two years has certainly not been effective, something even Nicholson has admitted.

It was tough for the Magic to find the right way to use him offensively, where he seemingly contributed the most value.

A majority of his shots were from mid range, and he hit those at about 40 percent. The expected value of his midrange shot was 0.80 points per possession, which is far below the 0.996 team average.

He also was not a great spot-up shooter either, having a 47.5 effective field goal percentage and yielding about 0.94 points per possession on those shots. He was generally poor when involved in pick and rolls, with the team scoring 0.85 points per possession on those plays.

The team even suffered a lot offensively on his post-ups, scoring 0.72 points per possession on those plays.

He was sixth on the team in rebounding percentage, seventh in defensive rebounding percentage, and seventh in offensive rebounding percentage, even trailing Elfrid Payton in that category.

He specifically struggled on rebounding opportunities where opponents were battling him for the ball, as fewer than half of his rebounds were contested.

Although he has statistically been a solid interior defender, he has not been a great perimeter defender or helping guards when they get beat.

Opponents shot 43.1 percent against him from more than 15 feet away from the basket, while the league average was 37.1 percent. Opponents also shot 38.1 percent from three against him, 3.5 percent above league average and good for 1.143 points per possession.

Nicholson has a lot to improve on, and the coaches need to figure out how to go about doing it, and whether he should even have a role in the league.

Next: Finding Nicholson's fit