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Assessing Value on the Orlando Magic Roster: Class Warfare

By Philip Rossman-Reich

Mar 27, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) drives to the basket as Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson (1) defends during the second half at Amway Center. Detroit Pistons defeated the Orlando Magic 111-97. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 27, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) drives to the basket as Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson (1) defends during the second half at Amway Center. Detroit Pistons defeated the Orlando Magic 111-97. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Channing Frye, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic
Dec 21, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Channing Frye (8) and Philadelphia 76ers center Henry Sims (35) during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Amway Center. Philadelphia 76ers won 96-88. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports /

The Mid-level Guys

The Magic have three key mid-level guys to review. Two of them are lower middle class players and so we can more accurately assess their value:

Player 2015 Salary Salary Class Market Value Value to Contract Ratio
Channing Frye 8,579,088 Upper Middle Class 2,991,773 -5,587,315
C.J. Watson 2,077,000 Lower Middle Class 6,314,222 4,237,222
Jason Smith 3,278,000 Lower Middle Class -1,576,593 -4,854,593

As noted in the discussion above, upper middle class players rarely give value back. Like teams stuck in the perpetual bottom of the playoff/end of the Lottery, guys with this kind of salary are kind of just there. So let’s leave Frye alone for the moment. Fans rag on him enough and this just adds ammunition (the salary Rob Hennigan paid him kind of set him up for some failure and his production did not help).

So the lower middle class players. The Magic have Watson and Smith coming off seasons on the opposite end of the spectrum.

This chart shows the spread of market value for Lower Mid Level contracts in the NBA. Graph courtesy of Nylon Calculus.
This chart shows the spread of market value for Lower Mid Level contracts in the NBA. Graph courtesy of Nylon Calculus. /

Using market value then, C.J. Watson was on the upper end of the spectrum. And he was truly coming off a career year based on VORP last year at 1.3. He was really really good. Expecting him to match that production this year seems a bit unrealistic. And he will be playing on a higher salary, decreasing his potential value.

Watson earned the deal he got though. If he can get close to matching what he did for Indiana, then Orlando will have gotten its money’s worth.

Jason Smith really struggled for the Knicks last year and falls on the opposite end of this spectrum. It is hard to say at this point just how much the Magic are expecting from him and what he can actually provide. It is not likely he is going to add much value.

Next: Final Observations