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Assessing Value on the Orlando Magic Roster: Class Warfare

By Philip Rossman-Reich

Mar 27, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) drives to the basket as Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson (1) defends during the second half at Amway Center. Detroit Pistons defeated the Orlando Magic 111-97. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 27, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Tobias Harris (12) drives to the basket as Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson (1) defends during the second half at Amway Center. Detroit Pistons defeated the Orlando Magic 111-97. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Elfrid Payton, Jose Calderon, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic
Jan 23, 2015; New York, NY, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives on New York Knicks guard Jose Calderon (3) during the third quarter at Madison Square Garden. Knicks won 113-106. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /

Rookie Contracts

The Magic in 2015 had a lot of guys on rookie contracts. That was by design. Rookie contracts are notoriously cheap. They are slotted salaries based on draft position and so teams do not have to worry too much about salary. It is really just about getting the most value out of these players and watching them out-produce their draft position and salary.

Even if a player does not hit, it is not a huge hit to the books.

We will save Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris for the next slide so we can discuss what their production looks like on their new salaries. For now, here are the Magic’s rookie-salary players and their market value and Value to Contract Ratios.

Player 2015 Salary Salary Class Market Value Value to Contract Ratio
Victor Oladipo 4,978,200 Rookie 6,314,222 1,336,022
Aaron Gordon 3,992,040 Rookie 84,631 -3,907,409
Elfrid Payton 2,397,840 Rookie 4,237,691 1,839,851
Andrew Nicholson 1,545,840 Rookie -1,161,287 -2,707,127
Evan Fournier 1,483,920 Rookie 499,937 -983,983
Shabazz Napier 1,238,640 Rookie 84,631 -1,154,009
Devyn Marble 884,879 Rookie/Minimum 499,937 -384,942
Dewayne Dedmon 816,482 Rookie/Minimum -330,675 -485,807

The caveat with rookie contracts is that they are under-market salaries. That is why it is best to compare rookie contracts together.

Here is the graph from Nygaard of rookie contracts:

This chart shows the spread of Value to Contract Ratios for players on their rookie deals. Graph courtesy of Nylon Calculus.
This chart shows the spread of Value to Contract Ratios for players on their rookie deals. Graph courtesy of Nylon Calculus. /

Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo gave the Magic the best value. That is good news as the Magic are tying a good chunk of their future to those players. Most of the players on the rookie scale have a negative VTC, so seeing the Magic get good value out of Oladipo and Payton is a very encouraging sign.

The solid value from Evan Fournier is also encouraging. Although the lower value may suggest the Magic should hold off on offering him an extension and watching him for another year to see if his value meets expectations.

The other players on rookie salaries appeared to play a bit below the median for this group of players.

The Magic are relying on internal improvement to make this season work. They will need to see it from a lot of players in this group.

Then again, the Magic’s key players in Oladipo and Payton seem to be contributing above average value. The hope is that continues while they remain at this salary level.

Next: The Extensions