Assessing value on the Orlando Magic roster: Introduction and Role Players
Aaron Gordon
Aaron Gordon is both a good and a weird player to start with in doing this analysis.
Rookies are always on notoriously friendly contracts. The market-controlled contracts are set in the collective bargaining agreement and players have no choice but to sign them — or go play in Europe for three years when the rookie contract restrictions get released (still surprised no major player has threatened to do that yet).
Essentially, when it comes to rookie contracts, getting any production from a rookie is a positive and will lead to a team getting positive value for him.
Gordon for his part last season, recorded a below-average 11.4 PER (remember, PER is normalized so that the league average is 15.0). That is the place we start with. But considering Gordon’s salary was a relatively reasonable $4 million, that is not necessarily a horrible thing. He posted $350,178.95/PER (about 8.8 percent of his salary).
Comparing him to other players at or near his salary playing a similar position, Gordon appears to perform maybe a bit under how he should have been expected to perform:
Ordered by Salary
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Miles | 4,205,000 | 14.1 | 298,226.95 |
| Thabo Sefolosha | 4,150,000 | 13.8 | 300,724.64 |
| Danny Green | 4,025,000 | 16.5 | 243,939.39 |
| Aaron Gordon | 3,992,040 | 11.4 | 350,178.95 |
| Vince Carter | 3,911,981 | 9.6 | 407,498.02 |
| Devin Harris | 3,878,000 | 14.8 | 262,027.03 |
| Thaddeus Young (MIN) | 2,426,506.02 | 15.0 | 161,767.07 |
Ordered by PER
| Player | Salary | PER | $/PER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Lee | 5,450,000 | 11.5 | 473,913.04 |
| James Ennis | 507,336 | 11.5 | 44,116.17 |
| Anthony Bennett | 5,563,920 | 11.4 | 488,063.16 |
| Aaron Gordon | 3,992,040 | 11.4 | 350,178.95 |
| Iman Shumpert (TOT) | 2,616,975 | 11.4 | 229,559.21 |
| Rasual Butler | 1,448,490 | 11.4 | 127,060.53 |
| Shavlik Randolph (BOS) | 3,462,044.39 | 11.4 | 303,688.10 |
Of course, there is a reason for this — Gordon was on the shelf for much of the season and was a rookie. Among the players with similar salary, Gordon brought back the worst expected value of the group above. Among players with the same PER, only Anthony Bennett seemed to deliver less value for his dollar (and he is also a sophomore playing for his second team in two years).
For his production, based on last year’s stats, it seems like Gordon probably should have been paid a little bit less, but things get very variable at his production level in how much guys are getting paid.
Again, that is expected with how Gordon’s season went down. It is clear he has a lot of room for improvement.
So what can we expect from Gordon this year? What would make him more successful?
A median PER of 15.0 at next year’s salary of $4,171,680 would put him at $278,112.00 $/PER. That would be a much better value compared to these comparable players. For a role player like Gordon, that could be viewed as a success.
On a rookie contract, all the team can ask for is continued improvement.
The Verdict: Too Early To Assign Value
Next: Channing Frye