Andrew Nicholson‘s disappointing second and third years in the NBA mean that his fourth year could turn out to be make or break.
Andrew Nicholson is not exactly the first player that springs to mind when you think of the revamped Orlando Magic.
He was the club’s first draft pick of the post-Dwight Howard era (actually selected before the Magic traded Howard), selected 19th overall in 2012. But, due largely to an influx of talent acquired via both free agency and the Draft, since then the St. Bonaventure product has found playing time increasingly more difficult to come by.
During his rookie campaign that was not the case.
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Competing with the likes of Glen Davis and Gustavo Ayon for minutes at the power forward slot, Nicholson made 75 appearances, 28 starts, averaging 16.7 minutes, 7.8 points and 3.4 rebounds per game, while shooting an impressive 52.7 percent from the field.
These numbers offer quite a contrast to his 2015 stats, as, due in no small part to the additions of players like Tobias Harris, Aaron Gordon and Channing Frye, his output last season dropped considerably, as he made just 40 appearances, three of which were starts, averaging 12.3 minutes, 4.9 points and 2.1 rebounds per game in that time.
Given Tobias Harris’ extension, Dewayne Dedmon’s breakout, Aaron Gordon’s scintillating Summer League campaign and the continued presence of, the albeit inconsistent, Channing Frye, Nicholson could find minutes are even more scarce next season, especially with new head coach Scott Skiles in town.
Skiles, as has been well publicized since he was appointed back in May, is a defensive-minded coach, which does not exactly bode well for Nicholson, whose work on that end of the floor still leaves a lot to be desired.
That said, under interim coach James Borrego, another defensive-minded coach who took over when Jacque Vaughn was fired in February, Nicholson showed signs of improvement.
"Andrew just does his job every night. He’s in the right place every single night. If you ask him to guard a certain way or stick to a game plan, he does it. And every time I watch that film, he’s doing the right thing. He may not go up and block every single shot. He may not come over and take every charge. But he’s in the right place at the right time. So I’ve seen more effort defensively and a higher awareness from him."
That this statement was made with a couple of weeks of the season remaining should come as no surprise, as after the All-Star break Nicholson shot 48 percent from the field, recording six double-digit scoring games in the final two months compared to just two prior to that.
Perhaps one of the main reasons for Nicholson’s post All-Star break resurgence was Borrego’s desire to overlook the Canadian’s attempt to add a 3-point shot to his arsenal during his second year in the league.
As Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel pointed out, in his rookie year Nicholson took 54.9 percent of his shots within 10 feet of the basket. In his second year that fell to 37.1 percent. Last season that number dropped even further, to just 31.5 percent. Under Borrego though, Nicholson made 79.2 percent of his shots within five feet and 45.5 percent from 5-9 feet.
With Borrego as head coach (a much smaller sample size for sure), Nicholson shot 46 of his 123 field goal attempts within 10 feet (37.4 percent of his total shot attempts). He took just 30 of his field goal attempts from beyond the arc (24.4 percent of his field goal attempts).
At least under Borrego, the Magic brought him inside the arc more. But he was still largely a jump shooter. And with a little more playing time, he still shot only 48.0 percent.
The offensive upturn Borrego identified behind the scenes may have saved Nicholson’s Magic career, as, if the rumor mill is to be believed he might have been traded at the deadline.
But, according to reports, the club felt the long-term replacement for Vaughn may eventually be in a better position to use him offensively, something that, perhaps, ensured he avoided being traded away for (practically) nothing, as Maurice Harkless was earlier this offseason.
Safe to say, Nicholson is going to have to work extremely hard if he wants to avoid becoming extraneous in the not-too-distant future. His offensive game, provided he is used in the right way, has the potential to be a true asset. But his lack of athleticism and tendency to overthink things on the other end of the floor make him a defensive liability at times.
During Borrego’s time in charge, the Magic improved defensively, but that had little to do with Nicholson’s contribution, as Orlando gave up 103.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court compared to 103.6 points per 100 possessions without him. The difference is marginal, but by continuing to work on getting to the right spots on the floor to aid team defense and making fewer mistakes individually will have a dramatic impact on his overall contribution.
Of course, Skiles’ presence and the more refined defensive system he is likely to implement should help someone like Nicholson immensely, even if the absence of a true rim protector, an issue Rob Hennigan should perhaps have addressed this offseason, will not.
That said, this is a contract year for Nicholson and if his hard work translates he can probably expect an extension and increased minutes coming off the bench.
If it does not though he might be playing elsewhere long before the trade deadline.