Nikola Vucevic 2015-16 Statistical Projections
Nikola Vucevic ranked No. 6 in the NBA in rebounds per game last season with 10.9 per game. He was one of just nine players to average double-figure boards last year. But it was actually a down year for Vucevic on the glass, and Orlando was not a good rebounding team, averaging 1.7 rebounds per game less than its opponents.
Vucevic had 45 games with 10 rebounds or more, and he had 45 double-doubles. Vucevic grabbed 69.6 percent of his rebounding chances, but he was good for just 39.3 percent of contested boards, a figure that lurks behind the top rebounders in the league considerably. By comparison, DeAndre Jordan was good for 44 percent of contested boards while man-child Andre Drummond snagged an outstanding 49 percent.
Now, it must be realized on a very real level Vucevic is not the physical specimen Jordan and Drummond are, but this is also not a facet of basketball as reliant on athleticism as many think. Vucevic can raise that figure with better footwork, tougher play, and a meaner streak — flat out, and as simple as it sounds.
Omer Asik grabs 45 percent of contested boards and is more flat footed than Vucevic even. A lot of it is just putting his mind to being the type of rebounder he has been while at his best.
Vucevic averaged a full board better per game in his first season in Orlando, but as he has become more featured in the offense, he has relaxed his effort on the glass. It is somewhat easy to understand, but nevertheless equally as disconcerting.
If the Magic up Vucevic’s workload offensively, does he turn into Brook Lopez?
That might be pure hyperbole, but the point is Vucevic needs to increase his efforts on the glass while also being more active in trying to get the ball. On some level that will affect his offensive rebounding, but a well-conditioned Vucevic could be an absolute monster.
The Vucevic we want to see is the one in the video here against the Miami Heat in Dec. of 2012 — that guy who can average 15 boards per game because he is hungry and active.
As for expectations, we are going to assume Vucevic stays about the same on the glass and that he gets more help this year from teammates. Just because Vucevic can grab the board does not mean he should have to. Oladipo and Harris are both capable of getting another full board per game.
Combine their increased figures with a consistent and steady Vucevic and the Magic are a passable team on the glass. Get Vucevic hitting the glass as he did against the Heat in that game, and at other times, and the Magic are a very good rebounding team. Rebounding, much like defense, is very effort reliant.
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