The Orlando Magic will have a few different options late in games, but does it begin with Victor Oladipo or Tobias Harris in crunch time?
Late-game situations always seems to come down to the perimeter. In the final minutes it comes down to, “which guard with the ball in his hands can create the best scoring opportunity or put up a shot that can just leave the defense scratching their heads?”
In the past two seasons, the Magic have seen Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo hit big shots in key moments. Those two seem to be the players for the Magic to turn to.
Outside of the pair, Nikola Vucevic demands the ball in many late-game sets, adding a third player in this debate, but Vucevic is a different animal than Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris.
The Magic’s perimeter threats have different expectations and different roles in the offense than Vucevic, whose role is partially determined by what those same perimeter players do with the ball.
Oladipo seems superior to Harris as a creator, but Harris is better at creating his own shot. It is best to look at what makes each effective and it may even be that the Magic’s recipient of late-game touches is on a per-game basis of who is playing the best that night.
But that type of analysis falls short because in totality there will be a guy who steps up as the No. 1 option.
It is worth trying to discern which guy it will be, with Oladipo and Harris the runaway candidates for the role. Teams need clutch players, and both have shown glimpses of having the stuff it takes to be a closeout scorer.
The Magic need that. Orlando needs to be a team that can have confidence that when games go down to the wire it has the players capable of closing them out.
It is well worth exploring how Oladipo and Harris are best used within the offense, and we will begin with a simple deduction from Harris’ best basketball last season.
Next: Tobias' Best Served Role
Three-Point Shooting Tobias Harris is Best
Tobias Harris shot nearly five threes per game in seven games in April, and the result was that it was his second-highest scoring month of the season as he hit 1.9 per game at a 38 percent clip.
Harris’ best scoring month came in October when he attempted 15 field goals per game, but his most efficient month came in February when he shot 51 percent from the floor while keeping his turnovers low at 1.6 per game.
When Harris is knocking down the triple he is a dangerous player at the 3-spot, but when he is not scoring his value is much tougher to find.
That is limiting as a player, because guys have to find ways to contribute when buckets are not coming as easily. Until Harris begins to rebound the ball in another gear while providing above-average defense, he is basically just a high-scoring forward.
There is value in that as proven by his relative demand during free agency, but general managers are not necessarily pinning Harris as the kind of guy that should be the No. 1 option on a good team.
The Magic are trying to become competitive, and Harris is likely the best isolation scorer at this point, but is that reason enough to single him as the clutch performer?
Next: The Vucevic Factor
What about Nikola Vucevic? Doesn’t his presence call for evaluation here?
Harris has to be consistent this year, but that benchmark of play will now be higher. That is to say that for $16 million a season, Harris is going to have to respond when he is called upon. Tobias Harris averaged 38.4 frontcourt touches per game last season and he averaged 0.44 points per frontcourt touch.
But he is not alone as a frontcourt option for Orlando.
Pippen Ain't Easy
Notably, Nikola Vucevic averaged 54.8 total touches per game, which was the same as Harris. Harris averaged 1.8 minutes of possession compared to Vucevic’s 1.5, so the ball is staying in Harris’ hands longer. He is taking the time to make plays but has yet to establish himself as the indisputable option late in games.
Vucevic also had more total touches than Harris during the season, while seeing the court about as much as Harris. Because Vucevic can step out on the perimeter, he has to be considered a high priority in high pick and rolls. We saw Vucevic called to the top of the arc to set space for Victor Oladipo, and Vucevic is often able to pick his spots when he pops on these plays.
He is going to continue to get touches, but the matter here is how the Magic can get the best response when it needs to isolate a player for a quick score.
Vucevic offered 0.542 points per half court touch, which was far higher than Harris’ 0.446. So, the argument can still be made the ball should be fed to Vucevic instead of isolating Harris.
This notion will be difficult to suppress if Harris does not deliver in games early this season. But while Harris and Vucevic are both great options late in games, Orlando did go to a certain former Indiana Hoosier more than both.
Next: What about Orlando's Highest Usage Player, though?
What About Orlando’s Highest Usage Player?
Victor Oladipo has the ball the most, so he has to make plays. That is one logical look to it.
He did average more than four assists per game in both his first two NBA seasons, and he could reasonably up that to five. He is a very good playmaker for a 2-guard, so Oladipo’s playmaking allows him to be featured as an isolation player who can find his teammates if the possession evolves that way.
Oladipo also decreased his turnovers to 2.8 per game this season, which is a reasonably low mark given his usage rate of 25.2 percent.
Oladipo also averaged 1.7 steals per game, so he is going to create some transition opportunities that Harris does not. When the defense creates offense, it is often the same player who reaps the benefits. Part of being the ultimate closer is to make some of the game defining plays on the defensive end.
Oladipo is that guy.
Moreover, Victor Oladipo averaged more touches than both Vucevic and Harris at 65.5 per game and his frontcourt touches were at 56.2 per game (far higher than Harris’ 38.4). Oladipo only averaged 0.319 points per frontcourt touch — but he was the heavy usage player according to just tracking the basketball.
He found his way into a lot of plays, and that is not at all a coincidence.
When Oladipo is handling the ball and being aggressive, he is an even bigger factor than when he functions as a cutter. He is best with the ball in his hands — and if Harris is going to be the one in isolation, Oladipo’s taken slightly out of his element.
However, if Oladipo is going to be high usage, it is requisite that he does make a lot of plays. Oladipo’s scoring leap to 17.9 per game was a very solid improvement, but much like Harris the chance is there for Oladipo to eclipse 20 points per game.
Vucevic, Harris and Oladipo all present cases for being the featured offensive player late in game, but all have their faults. Each is capable of averaging more than 20 points per game, but none will mark that as a noteworthy accomplishment if this team continues to rack up ‘Ls.’
Let us simply qualify Vucevic as the best post option and discuss which perimeter player should get the touches between Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris.
Next: Strengths and Weaknesses of the Two?
1) Victor Oladipo Must Get to the Line
Victor Oladipo must get to the free throw line to make it happen. He is just passable as a 3-point shooter but relies on his jumper as though it is a strength.
At this point, Oladipo’s best feature offensively is his ability to get to the basket, but he has to do a better job at finishing. He shot pretty poorly outside the restricted area in close range too, hitting just 26.3 percent of his shots from 3-10 feet.
Oladipo averaged just 4.5 free throws per game last season and that figure really needs to climb above six. It is a substantial improvement to expect Oladipo to jump to six free throw attempts per game, but if he could get to the line with that type of frequency he would have an edge in late-game situations when the Magic want surefire points. Because Victor shot 81.9 percent from the line, he is an enticing player to feature when the Magic are pressing for a whistle.
2) Oladipo’s shooting needs work, just like Tobias Harris
Oladipo was better than Harris in the mid-range though, knocking down a respectable 40 percent from 10-16 feet (Harris was 36 percent), but it still could bear improvement despite being better than Harris.
Oladipo shot just 34 percent on corner three-pointers which is really the quickest improvement to be added for the now-third-year guard.
If he could begin to knock that shot down like the bargain bucket it is, his scoring average would rise quickly considering he shot 21 percent of his attempts from the corner.
Oladipo needs to be a better 3-point shooter to make teams respect his driving game, and if he is aggressive at getting to the basket it will get him the space to start attempting some more contested looks in the half court.
If Oladipo aggressively pursues the rim, he could start getting to the line and getting respect from the referees.
3) Harris isn’t exempt from free throw attempt criticism, at all either.
It is harder to hold off the whistle if a guy is persistently attacking an aggressive defense.
Harris got to the line even less than Oladipo, attempting just 3.6 per game while knocking down 78 percent from the line. Harris averaged four per game in 2014, and he has to get back at least to that mark if not a little higher.
The Magic need points from the free throw line and while Oladipo’s style of play is more conducive toward getting high attempts, Harris cannot simply become a shooter in the offense. The Magic have to attack the rim.
As has been illustrated, a lot of the quips with Harris and Oladipo are mutual ones.
Neither is getting to the line enough, both are missing too many mid-range shots, and the 3-point shooting is still passable at best from both players.
Orlando needs a guy on the perimeter that teams are going to fear when games get close, and at this point not too many teams are likely worried about Oladipo or Harris being killers in the fourth quarter.
Orlando also has one of its best three talents in the paint in Vucevic, and featuring him in pick and rolls is an effective way to put two major scorers in the same final play.
That is what is enticing about the pick and roll: it can put a team’s best two offensive players in action for a final shot. Harris should likely already be running more pick and rolls, while Elfrid Payton certainly exhibits the characteristics of a great pick and roll point guard. The Magic still can isolate Payton with the ball and let him create for the three scorers on the court with him.
It is not as though it’s “All Oladipo,” “All Harris,” or anything of the sort: offenses are fluid machines that sometimes highlight multiple options in unison.
Next: What does it all equal in the end?
How Will it all Develop?
Orlando will begin to find out who its prime time performer is, though Harris has made enough clutch plays to make a case that the role is his. That is fine in its own respect, but a 25-win team should not necessarily have all questions answered, and last season’s numbers only provide guidelines from what happened during a failed season.
In breaking down Orlando’s problems, a lot of it has to be projected on what these players can become, not what each was during a disastrous season that featured coaching instabilities and an inconsistent starting lineup.
The simple isolated results of Harris at his best paint the picture of a guy who can be a clutch performer. It is just far from a one-man show given how heavily featured both Oladipo and Vucevic were last season.
Oladipo is continually the offensive workhorse throughout the game, so it may be counterproductive to shift the ball to Harris’ hands while the Magic are rolling. Oladipo runs the pick and roll with Vucevic well enough to reasonably call that “Orlando’s best shot-creating play.”
Harris is not really a point-forward or any kind of playmaker, so it’s not as though he’s the guy who is going to make last second plays extremely flexible. When the Magic used to isolate Hedo Turkoglu, shooters had their hands ready to benefit from his passing. Teammates aren’t quite looking at Harris and his 1.8 assists per game with the same eager eyes.
“But he can really get buckets!,” we consistently counter that with, citing plays like his buzzer-beating dunk over the Oklahoma City Thunder (below).
Oladipo is the best triple-threat on the team: he can create to the tune of four assists per game while knocking down jumpers and putting the ball on the floor. Just his versatility seems to indicate he is the one to go to.
There are arguments for both, and the development of Orlando’s clutch performer will be one of the themes developing this season.
On the basis of skill set, Oladipo seems best. Past performance, Harris.
And all the while, Vucevic will jostle for position or set the high pick.
If the past counts for something, we conclude Harris is going to get a lot of clutch touches. But it is just too hard to leave out Orlando’s best scoring guard and a big man who is arguably in the NBA’s top-10 offensively at his position.
Orlando has three great options late in games, and Skiles will be the one to call the plays. We will see what that transpires to.