Superficially Tobias Harris puts up numbers that warrant his new contract, but basketball is about more than scoring and grabbing boards.
The argument guys can put up “empty numbers” is not an invalid one. Particularly on poor teams, stats can be inflated and overall metrics sometimes fail to tell the full picture. In the case of Tobias Harris, the numbers are self-evident: 17 points, six boards and 36 percent 3-point shooting.
Those numbers alone dictate Harris is a bona fide starter. But now with his $64-million, four-year contract, more is expected.
Perhaps unfairly, Harris is now going to be evaluated on the basis of a large contract. The salaries handed out this offseason were market dictated, but the deals still come with expectations.
And from this: Harris cannot throw up numbers while the Magic lose mass games and still warrant the money he is now receiving. Giving Harris the contract was nearly a no-brainer after striking out on Paul Millsap (maybe even with getting Millsap too considering Harris’ production and age), but that does not mean he can just score 18 points and grab six boards — and be worth it.
The matter of whether Harris puts up “empty” numbers is a very subjective thing.
On one hand, Harris shoots 46.6 percent from the field. That is a respectable mark.
But there are glaring holes in that 46 percent. First off, Harris shoots just 38 percent from 3-10 feet and just 36 percent from 10-16 feet. That would not be so problematic maybe if Harris did not take 32.3 percent of his shots from the mid-range.
While many will argue that the mid-range shot is a waste of time, it is really not. It is the shot defenses most concede. When Elfrid Payton breaks down the defense, Harris is going to be required to knock down those shots.
Next: What does Harris' 3-point shot chart reveal?
Three-Point Shooting
Harris took 42 percent of his triples from the corner and knocked down 45.1 percent of those, which is a very solid mark. But elsewhere on the court, he is a far less effective. Harris shot 26 percent from the right wing, 30 percent from the top of the arc and 37 percent from the left wing.
The 26 percent in particular needs major work, especially given Harris shot 60 from that spot (more than he took from either corner, respectively).
So while Harris comes up with an overall respective mark of 36 percent, the full picture is a shooter who is very inefficient in taking wing shots.
Boiled down simply: Harris is a scorer, but not a well-rounded nor efficient one. His mid-range shooting is too poor and his range is not fully developed.
It really simplifies down to a lot of things that make Harris the questionable talent he is: He is not a lights-out shooter, but his play style reflects that of a guy who thinks he is.
Harris has to become a better threat from all over the arc, and he also needs to hit the mid-range jumper more effectively, because it will be there in the offense.
However, he has to be a more efficient scorer if the Magic are going to take the next steps as a franchise. He saw 72 percent of his minutes at the small forward spot last season, putting to rest the argument that he has no position.
Next: What about Tobias' defensive effort?
Defense, Defense!
The problem really lies there with his defense. Harris admitted himself to Zach Lowe of Grantland he has trouble getting into defensive stance, and he has even hired a yoga instructor to work on his flexibility. He said he is already “getting a little bit lower,” but that really needs to be checked with what makes a fundamentally sound defender.
Defense, all things being equal, is really just a lot of hard work.
And staying down in a defensive stance is trying not just on flexibility but on leg strength. A good defender stays on his toes and slides his feet laterally, but too often we see Harris resting on his heels, standing nearly straight up, and trying to “run” laterally to cover the initial slow-footed reaction to a defender.
This model simply will not work against NBA-caliber athletes. It barely is enough to cover a player at any level, honestly.
The timing required to stop a drive along the baseline or cut off a pick-and-roll defender is requisite upon a player being on his toes, being able to make that split-second reaction to a jab step or a change in direction.
The way Harris plays defense leaves a lot of that as guesswork to the wind, and when guys got going last year, Harris was often at a loss to stop them.
Flashing back to the Sacramento game on March 6, Tobias Harris gave up 39 points to Rudy Gay, allowing the Sacramento Kings forward to hit 16 of 26 from the field and 3 of 6 from 3-point range. Gay also came up with eight boards, three assists and six blocks/steals in the game. Harris put up 19 points of his own, but Gay caused plenty more damage.
Orlando barely escaped with a 119-114 victory, butSacramento outscored Orlando 57-41 in the second half, and Harris was powerless to stop Gay. Rudy Gay is one of the better scoring swingmen in the NBA. But against Harris, he was nearly unstoppable.
Without Harris grasping the effort that is required to stop a guy like Gay, the Magic are going to stagnate.
At least he understands his defensive stance must improve, but he also takes exception to being called a bad defender, saying:
"“Guys are not straight dogging me out there. It doesn’t happen. You look at my on-ball defense, and it’s not bad.”"
That statement alone shows an element of selective memory, because Gay and others did in fact “dog” Harris on the court. It reflects part of the problem: One cannot play defense merely to be “not bad,” because that reeks of mediocrity. That is what results in teams winning 68 games over three seasons to be blunt about it.
In fairness to Harris though, he has his strong moments on defense. As Lowe points out:
"Harris got better last season. He was more diligent getting back in transition after years of admiring his own wayward jumpers while his guy leaked out. As the league get smaller, Harris will face more power forwards his size. And when Harris dials up the intensity, he can hang with crafty wing ball handlers; watch him switch onto Dwyane Wade and stick step-for-step with him on a crunch-time possession: That right there — that fluid bit of positional versatility — is why Harris almost got a max contract. It is the “how” you’d bet big on — if you think it’s something Harris can replicate. He swears he can bring that kind of defense more often. “You look at my on-ball defense, and it’s not bad,” Harris says. “If you say I don’t play defense, that’s an insult. I put in my effort every night. Guys are not straight dogging me out there. It doesn’t happen.”"
Harris has to take the pride in his defense to muster an effort that will at least have fans saying “Well, Player X simply played out of his mind and there was nothing Tobias could have done.”
Even with a slow-footed Hedo Turkoglu doing his best impression of defense, the overall result was far prettier with Dwight Howard backing him up in the paint. Harris does not have that luxury, nor do any of the other Magic defenders. It is basically on them alone to stop their man from getting to the cup.
When a guy gets by Harris or another perimeter defender, it is often going to require a secondary defender cutting off the driving lane, because Nikola Vucevic is not a shot blocker nor even a shot changer. And until the Magic fortify their defense with such a talent, it is going to take a lot more than “not bad” defense to reverse this team’s fate.
The Sixer Sense
Scott Skiles will demand effort. Harris is going to have to rely on that added flexibility — plus mass amounts of sheer effort — to will himself to be the type of defender that teammates are not constantly compensating for.
Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton’s hands will be occupied enough with opposing backcourts, and continually covering for Tobias getting beat off the dribble weakens the entire effort.
Defensively, Harris’ effort is only dubiously there. He is nto entirely mailing it in on the defensive end, but Stats, LLC also provides this: Harris has taken just two charges in the past four seasons. Charges are one solid indicator a guy is giving effort to get his feet into position and then sacrificing his body to gain that possession.
Harris has enough trouble stepping up to cut off a defender, and when he gets there he is simply not looking to lay it on the floor for his team.
That, combined with a simple evaluation of his lack of defensive stance, tells the story in full really.
Harris is a good scorer in spots and can put the ball in the bucket, but he is far from unstoppable. Defenses will continue to adapt to Harris by trying to force him out of his sweet spots.
He is going to have to dig a lot deeper defensively or endure his teammates frustrations as they waste fouls trying to stop Harris’ guy from getting into the paint.
Next: What does it all add up to?
What is the final word on Harris?
The overall picture of Harris is that of a guy whose scoring abilities do not really compensate for his other shortcomings. And that is really just not even in the mold of a Scott Skiles player.
It is a very harsh judgement to lay on Harris, but without a concerted effort to be a more efficient player and better defender, he just stagnates here and is perpetually that “poor man’s Carmelo Anthony,” for better or worse.
Harris is a complicated guy to evaluate because the basic numbers illustrate a good scorer who is really on the cusp of being an All Star even. But that is not the final metric to evaluate success, and wins only come as a result of doing the smaller things that do not show up in the stat sheet. Charges are one that nearly does show up, and Harris shows an utter inability to force turnovers in that manner.
At this point, without a stronger effort from Harris, he is going to remain a guy who is only worth the $16 million per season on the basis of points and rebounds.
That is just not enough.