Scott Skiles has a lot of options for starting and closing lineups for the Orlando Magic in 2016. What should he choose? Our series looking at the starting lineup continues with David Iwanowski‘s look.
The Magic have a lot of options for the starting lineup this upcoming season.
It is likely the team has four of its five starting spots locked up already, as Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic each started more than 62 games last season.
It is a mystery what new coach Scott Skiles will do with the last slot in the lineup.
I believe the last slot should go to second-year forward Aaron Gordon.
That lineup would have a lot of defensive versatility, something that is as important as ever in the league right now. Gordon can potentially guard four positions, which allows him to switch on screens and not be exploited as a mismatch.
Gordon’s quickness allows for superior defensive rotations as well, meaning the guards can play aggressive defense and be more confident in the help.
Gordon can be a good complement to Vucevic and Harris, as he can cover any opponent that would otherwise have provided a tough matchup for them. He can guard quicker perimeter players and potentially allow Harris to guard more powerful forwards and play into Harris’ strength.
He can also challenge interior shots, which has been the defense’s biggest weakness. Gordon conceded shots at 48 percent at the rim. That number can improve if he remains healthy and he gets used to the speed and athleticism of the league.
At the NBA Draft combine, Gordon’s wingspan was measured at just less than seven feet, and his max vertical was 39 inches. That athleticism allows him to be a tough defender at the rim to go along with his perimeter defensive strength.
He had an individual defensive rating (points given up per 100 possessions) of 104.5, which was better than team average.
The lineup of Payton, Oladipo, Harris, Gordon and Vucevic had the second best defensive rating out of all lineups that played at least 85 minutes for the Magic last season, and it was only 0.1 behind the top defensive lineup.
He can also help out with rebounding, as he gathered almost 12 percent of available rebounds. His offensive rating was 98.9, which was slightly worse than team average. The reasons seem to be compiling and building.
However, Gordon appears to be improving his jump shooting, which will improve his scoring output and the scoring output of his teammates that would come with the increased spacing.
This lineup also allows the team to increase its pace, which helped the Magic offense last season. The team scored 1.21 points per possession with Gordon involved in transition, he shot 64.7 percent in transition, and perhaps most importantly, he drew fouls 22.9 percent of the time.
Overall, this is a starting lineup consisting of young players with a lot of athleticism and defensive potential, and should be the starting lineup at least in the beginning of the season.
If 2015 first round pick Mario Hezonja plays at a high level and earns a spot in the lineup, that is a great issue for Skiles to have.
Another interesting lineup question is which group to use down the stretch in a close game.
Last season, in clutch situations (the last five minutes of a game within five points), Gordon played extraordinarily well, although he only played in 16 of those games. He had a field goal percentage north of 83 percent, a defensive rating of 102.3, and an offensive rating of 136.4.
However, the Magic may want to eventually substitute Hezonja in there to create his own shot and instill offensive confidence. Therefore, Coach Skiles may want to consider pulling one of the more established wing players.
One possibility could be Victor Oladipo, whose net rating (offensive rating subtracted by defensive rating) is negative in clutch situations, meaning the team conceded more points with him on the court than him off of it per 100 possessions. However, he can still create offense for himself or his teammates, as well as hit free throws at a consistent rate (77.8 percent in clutch situations, 81.9 percent overall).
He is also a tough perimeter defender who can match up with nearly any opposing scorer, something that is very important late in the game.
Another possibility is subbing out Elfrid Payton. Although he performed well in clutch scenarios last season with a net rating of 7.7, he poses a risk on offense.
Defenses can step off him and pack the paint, forcing jump shots for himself and decreasing the spacing for his teammates. Teams will also play aggressive defense on him and potentially intentionally foul him, as his free throw percentage, both overall and in the clutch, were about 55 percent.
A lot of the lineup decisions will depend on how the individual players develop and how the specific game flow is. If the team is having trouble scoring, they will probably insert more offensive-minded players.
Right now, if I had to choose the lineup I would like to see Skiles put on the court to start the season, I would want Payton, Oladipo, Harris, Gordon and Vucevic starting and ending the games.
If Hezonja comes along fast, I would like to see him inserted as a closer and either Payton or Oladipo subbed out, depending on how that individual game is going.
The variety of options can only help a Magic team looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012.