Plenty of lineup options for the Orlando Magic
After re-signing Tobias Harris, the Orlando Magic appear to have numerous options to create a capable and versatile starting lineup.
Friday it was reported Tobias Harris has agreed to a four-year, $64 million contract. This was a big deal for the Magic, as they have the core established and will look to develop into a potential playoff team this year.
Some questions will arise about starting lineup possibilities for the team in 2016 after the signing. It is fairly safe to assume Harris, along with Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic, will crack the starting lineup at least in the beginning of the season.
What Scott Skiles will do with the fifth starting spot is still a mystery.
One possibility is starting Aaron Gordon at the 4, and playing a small and versatile style of basketball. Gordon has the quickness to guard perimeter players, and was measured with a wingspan of almost seven feet back during the Draft. If he bulks up, he could potentially guard three or four positions, which is incredibly valuable in the league right now.
The lineup of Payton, Oladipo, Harris, Gordon and Vucevic had the second best defensive rating (points given up per 100 possessions) out of all its lineups that played at least 85 minutes last season for the Magic with a 102.4 defensive rating, and it was only 0.1 behind the top defensive lineup.
Scott Skiles is known as a defensive-minded coach, and he may very well resort to the lineup that presents the team with the most defensive strength and versatility.
A lineup consisting of Harris and Gordon allows matchup options, as Gordon can guard the superior opposing scorer while Harris, who is a bit stronger, can guard the bigger opponent. A negative about that lineup is that it was somewhat offensively challenged, only scoring about 96 points per 100 possessions.
Gordon only shot about 27 percent from three last season, and needs to improve that number. However, it is definitely possible for him to improve enough to be guarded seriously at the perimeter.
Gordon improved his free-throw shooting from about 42 percent in college to 72.1 percent last season. Free-throw shooting is often a good sign of jump-shooting ability. Gordon has the capacity to improve his 3-point shooting to a respectable number, similar to how Draymond Green rose from 20.9 percent in his rookie season to 33.7 percent last year.
And Gordon is only 19 years old.
Gordon just needs to be a good enough shooter to force opponents to respect his shot and give his teammates more spacing to drive. He did shoot about 44 percent from the right corner three, and has been working on his jumper this offseason.
The lineup of Payton, Oladipo, Gordon, Harris and Vucevic had the best rebounding percentage of all lineups that played at least 40 minutes last season (53.3 percent), and that lineup can also bring a lot of pace — although last year it played at a pace of 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes last year. Specifically, it can be aggressive on defense and create turnovers, leading to easy fast break points.
Another potential lineup the team can resort to in order to address its offensive deficiencies is putting rookie Mario Hezonja in the starting lineup at the 3, and putting Harris at the 4.
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A similar lineup with Harris at the 4 and Fournier starting at the wing logged 114 minutes last season. It scored about 112 points per 100 possessions, but allowed 114.5 points per 100 possessions. Hezonja has about an inch and 10 pounds on Fournier, giving him a slight edge at the 3. If Skiles can help Hezonja develop into a solid defensive player, then that lineup can definitely work.
One other potential lineup that can work is starting Dewayne Dedmon at the 4 and going big. That lineup appears to be steering away from the conventional NBA direction, but Dedmon is mobile and athletic enough to not be helpless defending on-ball screens.
Dedmon also can provide rim protection next to Vucevic. Vucevic conceded 53.7 percent on shots at the rim, and Dedmon can help the defense prevent easy opportunities at the rim.
Dedmon has also drawn some double teams off pick-and-rolls, as he provides a serious lob threat. Generally, having two centers playing together can ruin a team’s spacing, but this lineup could work offensively.
Dedmon is essentially only capable of being a reliable scorer at the rim. About 75 percent of his field goal attempts last season were within five feet, and he scored at about 65 percent from that range.
Nikola Vucevic can score from inside and outside, and he can help provide the team some spacing. Although his most efficient spot was within five feet (about 63 percent), he shot 46 percent from 10-14 feet, 47 percent from 15-19 feet, and 43 percent from 20-24 feet.
Although he does not take many threes (2 for 4 on the season), Vucevic can look to develop his 3-point shot and could possibly provide a nice four-out setup when the team needs it. He could also provide a trailer-3 option on the fast break, which is important for Oladipo- or Payton-led breaks because their speed draws the entire defense’s attention.
It appears Channing Frye will not make the starting lineup, as his offensive game was too too predictable and his defensive game was inadequate for this Skiles-run team.
Personally, I believe the team should begin the season with 2014 first round pick Aaron Gordon starting at the 4. I believe he brings the versatility and pace that can help the team succeed, and can potentially grow into a Draymond Green type player.
If Hezonja’s development speeds along, they may consider putting him in the starting lineup because he has star scoring potential. Skiles may also consider the interior defensive skills of Dedmon for the lineup. The team may also look to use the rest of its cap on a rim protecting 4, so we will wait to see what Rob Hennigan does.
One thing is certain: the team has options, and that is a very good place to be.