Tobias Harris’ restricted free agency seems anything but predictable, and it is fully evidenced by reports the Orlando Magic are willing to match most offers — but possibly not a max contract according to league sources.
Tobias Harris’ market value has been difficult to ascertain.
On one hand, he is a valuable combo forward with a unique skill set who can flat out put the ball in the bucket. On the other, he is a player whose defense is average at best and offers scoring at one of the most easily filled positions on the court.
Orlando won just 25 games last year, giving Harris anything but a guaranteed shot at a max deal. With teams like the Boston Celtics lining up for his services, Magic general manager Rob Hennigan is going to have to weigh carefully just how much Harris is really worth. And what Hennigan’s actual assessment is really is all that matters.
But that, too, is difficult to get a real gauge on.
Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe initially reported July 1 the Magic would not match a max deal for Harris should the Celtics or any other team tender it:
Have been told the #Magic will not match a max offer to Tobias Harris, so the market value has been set. #Celtics
— gary washburn (@GwashburnGlobe) July 1, 2015
Washburn today (July 3) reported a league source has now indicated the Magic will match any offer and that should drive off interested teams:
League sources say #Magic fully intend to match any offer sheet for Tobias Harris, meaning interested teams such as #celtics unlikely to bid
— gary washburn (@GwashburnGlobe) July 3, 2015
There is the typical element of the smoke screen, and Hennigan may feel by making these statements general managers like Danny Ainge will simply steer clear of Harris. But there is no real evidence this strategy is effective, nor does it necessarily indicate Orlando is committed to Harris. The duplicity of the reports is puzzling, and making sense of these types of rumors is difficult.
The Magic may meet a max deal for Harris and retain his services. But with the drafting of No. 5 overall pick, Croatian swingman Mario Hezonja, Harris’ services are nearly redundant — at least eventually.
True, Hezonja is an unproven rookie, but his best natural position seems to be the 3-spot which is where Harris spent the majority of last season. Harris’ defensive struggles have limited his efficacy against power forwards especially. It may be that Orlando just is not the best fit for Harris.
The Sixer Sense
That fact, the incremental bit of leverage it gives the Magic, results in the luxury of not feeling as compelled to re-sign Harris. The bidding may prove too high for a guy that was unable to improve Orlando’s fate beyond simply being a poor team once again last year.
It is difficult to shell out max dollars to a player whose talents have yet to translate into any real measurable progress or wins.
While the Magic may have been most recently reported to be willing to match “any” offer, it is possible Hennigan is saying “Well, not that kind of any.”
The Magic at the very minimum are taking a wait-and-see approach with regards to this.