NBA Draft: Orlando’s No. 51 Dakari Johnson or Robert Upshaw?
If the Orlando Magic go big with the second round pick, would the safe choice in Dakari Johnson make more sense than the raw upside of Robert Upshaw?
The second round is a chance to nab prospects whose stock is not as high for multitudes of reasons. Two early entrants in Dakari Johnson and Robert Upshaw should be on Orlando’s radar.
But which center will ultimately be the better NBA backup?
Because that is what it boils down to. The Magic are scarcely attempting to land a starter with a late-second round pick, but getting a big body to put behind Nikola Vucevic would be a nice luxury and an option well within play, particularly with Kyle O’Quinn’s future seemingly in flux.
Johnson hails from a much more storied program in Kentucky, but Upshaw’s raw athleticism raises intrigue as well. Both Johnson and Upshaw measured up well at the NBA Draft Combine, with Upshaw registering the highest standing reach (9-foot-5) while Johnson was the draft’s second-tallest player, behind only his teammate Willie Cauley-Stein.
Johnson’s standing reach (9-foot-4) was just an inch less than Upshaw’s — but he does not come with the same degree of athleticism as the Washington product.
And then there is the matter of experience and competition. The level of competition Upshaw encountered in his NCAA career scarcely paled in comparison to Johnson — hard to argue the SEC is not better than the Pac-12 at the moment. And those 4.7 blocks per game in less than 20 minutes are (vastly) inflated by the fact Upshaw was playing against guys who would fail to even draw any NBA Draft notice whatsoever.
And yet, despite Johnson’s exposure and Upshaw’s upside, both come with numerous questions.
Upshaw missed half the season after being dismissed from the team, while Johnson received just 16.3 minutes per game as part of John Calipari’s platoon substituting this year (something he said he will never try again). Johnson blocked 2.3 shots per-40 minutes, while Upshaw’s wildly inflated numbers would throw that over nine per game. That has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Fittingly perhaps, Upshaw comes with the highest “upside.” But that is one of the more exaggerated facets of drafting, most especially when it comes to drafting guys slated to be backups. With Upshaw, there is the chance he could be a lot like Larry Sanders (pre-retirement) whereas maybe the best that can be expected of Johnson is a career akin to Kendrick Perkins’ career.
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That may solicit groans from the fan base, but there is something to be said for having a seven-footer with the beef (255 pounds of it) to play the 5-spot.
What is the end conclusion?
Upshaw is the home run hit if it connects. Johnson is a safe NBA backup who will likely have a long career, but much like Perkins, he will fail to elicit much of a response from opposing players on the offensive end.
What is worse is that against conference foes, Johnson shot just 42.3 percent from the floor in 18 SEC games, while somehow shooting 71 percent from the line in those contests (up from just 48 percent in his freshman year). Given that the SEC features a high level of competition, it is a fair statement that Johnson may struggle around the basket in the Association — perhaps indefinitely.
All of that has to count for something, but if all things are equal, Upshaw is getting drafted first. Johnson meanwhile could last until Orlando’s No. 51 overall pick.
Given Orlando’s seeming dissatisfaction with Kyle O’Quinn, it would be less surprising to see Johnson selected to be the new backup center (as opposed to a swingman who may never equate to much).
Although there are talents to be had in the second round, size is an asset that will always carry a premium.
Both centers offer that.
Johnson just comes a little more refined, a little more cultured, and likely will make a bigger immediate impact. That said, it seems likely most Magic fans would prefer the upside of Upshaw. Even so, he likely will go long before Orlando’s second round pick, which may make this comparison merely a moot point.
Upshaw is currently slotted to go No. 52 overall on NBA Draft.net, but on Draft Express he has crept into the late first round (No. 25). Which is closer to true?
Whether it be Johnson or Upshaw, neither pick would be a poor one. Johnson gained tremendous experience going against Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns in practice. If for no other reason, that has to give him a slight edge over a guy whose school faces little to no competition of NBA value.