Every draft we are faced with a handful of players whose stock climbs considerably as the draft approaches.
Team workouts play a huge role in the NBA draft selection process. While it is clearly next to impossible to postulate which players will impress which GMs the most, it is not quite as difficult to figure which guys have more talent than what the general perception may be.
The consensus top two picks are unlikely to change. Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor are the toast of this draft class. Even D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay are unlikely to fall out of the top-five.
To a lesser extent, Justise Winslow likely does not last past Orlando’s No. 5 overall pick, either (though the case may be presented that Orlando’s pick could be spent otherwise).
But after that, things begin to get far dicier, and guys are able to improve (or worsen) their draft stocks as teams get a closer look at what they can bring to the table.
There are several players we are expecting to make some leaps as teams get closer looks at them in the next month.
Next: Could this be Orlando's guy after all?
Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
Stanley Johnson is currently projected to go No. 8 overall by NBADraft.net and No. 9 by Draft Express.
But might he not actually end up moving all the way up to Orlando’s pick at No. 5? That would preclude the possibility of trading down to pick him up with some additional assets.
Johnson offers some valuable traits that are not found in Justise Winslow that may make Orlando or even Sacramento or Denver select him in the top seven. Johnson is a better shooter than Winslow and he is more well suited to full-time small forward duties.
Defensively, it is tough to say which is the better option, but to be sure both offer lock-down potential on the wing. What may make Johnson ultimately more valuable than Winslow is that he can play the 4-spot in small-ball lineups, and he is longer than Winslow which will enable him to pester hot point guards if the Magic need him to.
Orlando already tried that this past season with Maurice Harkless, and it turned out to be one of the more impressive things Harkless did in an otherwise depressing season. Johnson, though, is a far superior prospect to Harkless, even considering Harkless’ initial high upside he was billed to have when Philadelphia selected him in 2013.
Johnson has nearly a seven-foot wingspan despite standing just 6-foot-6.5 (with shoes). He has every chance in the world to be Andre Iguodala. And that is exactly what Orlando needs. He could end up impressing staff enough that it makes it easy to bill him as the small forward of the future.
Moreover, with the reports May 23 that Scott Skiles is the leading candidate for the coaching job, Tobias Harris’ future is precarious — he and Skiles failed to see eye-to-eye while both were in Milwaukee, allowing the Magic to swoop in and give him a situation he would actually play.
If the Magic are looking for a definitive and true small forward, Johnson makes a lot of sense.
Next: The Defensive Monster
Willie Cauley-Stein, PF/C, Kentucky
This comes with the disclaimer that no one really seems to know where Willie Cauley-Stein should be drafted to begin with.
There is great disparity in most mocks, evidenced by his No. 11 projection on NBADraft.net contrasted with his No. 6 on Draft Express. Which is right?
It cannot be ruled out that Willie is selected by Orlando at No. 5, even. And due to his NBA-readiness and defensive skills, it seems Draft Express may be closer to the truth than NBADraft.net.
But that is just it: Cauley-Stein’s lack of offensive refinement could cause him to slip in the draft. Alternatively, the price on a guy who can defend the 4/5-spots while providing an anchor to the defense, rim protection — it is invaluable.
Cauley-Stein spent three years at Kentucky refining his game, but exhibited minimal offensive growth in that span. That has to be a black mark on his resume, but teams will not just allow a guy with his defensive talents to slip very far in this draft.
Looking at the teams selecting after Orlando, it is easy to make a case the Denver Nuggets draft him to play alongside Kenneth Faried. Sacramento also needs a power forward with Rudy Gay currently playing out of position or relying on workmen like Reggie Evans. Detroit will likely not retain Greg Monroe’s services, meaning they will need an interior player as well.
The fact Orlando and the three teams after it all need size, Cauley-Stein seems certain to go in the top-8. But his offensive shortcomings make it entirely possible that teams fall in love with guys who can put points on the board and allow Cauley-Stein to drop down to the No. 10 pick (Miami) or No. 11 (Indiana).
So, while it may be inaccurate to say his stock will climb, it could be solidified as a high position, which it is not yet.
Next: Size, Upside, Growing
Bobby Portis, C, Arkansas
Bobby Portis is expected to be a mid-first round pick. However, he offers great length that cannot be taught as a 6-foot-11 forward who can hit the glass on both ends of the court and finishes well on the interior.
Portis is well-suited to be an NBA power forward and apparently he is still growing, as he is more than an inch taller than when he enrolled at Arkansas a couple seasons ago. He could become a 7-foot power forward, and given his 245-pound frame, that would give a team a nice edge to have a guy with the capability of playing both post spots more than adequately.
What Portis lacks, however, is outstanding athleticism. He makes up for it with his ball skills, but he is not really a big back to the basket guy either.
Portis has some work to put in, and a lot of development to undergo. But that is often the case with 20-year-old prospects, and the old dictum “size cannot be taught” continues to apply to Portis.
With Bobby, it may not be a case of his stock rising, but more to the point if a team decides to reach on him due to being impressed by his workouts.
Make no mistake, he can impress. It will not come by jaw-dropping dunks and displays of athleticism, but he is a smart player and his instincts are good. There is a good possibility he rises from the mid-first round into the late lottery.
Next: A bargain shot pinner?
Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
This rise has already been in-progress.
NBADraft.net originally slotted Robert Upshaw to go No. 51 overall (the Magic’s second round pick) — but Draft Express currently has him rated as the No. 30 prospect in the draft and has him penciled in to go No. 25 overall.
This is a guy who basically spent the entire second half of the NCAA season disqualified from competition, and who is a very raw talent.
But teams have begun to learn from past mistakes, and the ultra athletic, long centers are not going to last into the second round as they once did in the past (citing DeAndre Jordan’s No. 35 overall selection as just one notable example).
Upshaw averaged 10.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and a 30.0 PER in his 19 games last year, while blocking nearly five shots per game. And he did all of that in just about 20 minutes per game.
As to how a team could let a talent like that pass with a late first? It will not happen.
Upshaw is going to likely play his way higher on the board, too, so if Orlando wanted to have any chance at obtaining him as the rim protector it needs it will have to deal for a pick in the early 20s.
Upshaw possesses the biggest hands and highest standing reach (9-foot-5) of any player in this year’s class. His physical attributes are what makes him rise in this draft, not his refinement nor basketball skills.
Given this draft’s relative depth, there may not be a lot of teams looking to deal those picks, nor do the Magic have a plethora of appropriate assets to offer at any rate.