The Orlando Magic may end up selecting fifth overall, but are there reasons to trade down further in the draft this year?
As it currently stands, the Orlando Magic have the fifth best odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick. Landing a top-three pick stands at 38 percent possibility, but if Orlando falls outside the top-three should it consider trading down further in the lottery to snag a similar prospect with assets?
The thought of trading down often elicits groans from fans because it nixes the idea of landing what most may consider a “home run” prospect.
But sometimes drafts have a different anatomy. That is to say, this specific draft is not a top-heavy draft.
Outside of Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, there are no players which can be labeled franchise talents. Some dispute whether even Towns or Okafor fulfill that expectation.
What becomes clear when analyzing the draft board, however, is that the Magic could get a guy in the 8-12 range every bit as valuable as those projected to go No. 5 overall.
The argument has to begin on a per-player basis.
Justise Winslow is projected to go fifth, with international prospects Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja and Kentucky freshman Trey Lyles slotted around there too.
What gets intriguing is that the talents projected to go in the late lottery and outside the lottery. These are the guys that are great values who could end up being better than the likes of Winslow, Porzingis and Lyles in the right situation.
The disparity in talent decreases and the lines between who is pick No. 8 is not so different from who is pick No. 14. This implies that the Magic could make this the year to extract value from the pick by finding a team enamored with the likes of Winslow.
It is not the favorite path for fans, but sometimes snagging a bargain in draft position can work out, particularly if you can get a secondary asset in return too.
Kawhi Leonard was a No. 17 overall pick and just won Finals MVP and is line for a max contract to be the Spurs’ next generation star.
Getting guys early in no way indicates getting the superior talents of a given class. There are a lot of reasons to get excited about talents others overlook, and that is what this exercise is about…
Those talents are as follows (NBADraft.net projected position):
8- Stanley Johnson
10- Willie Cauley-Stein
12- Sam Dekker
14- Kevon Looney
20- Montrezl Harrell
Each of these players deserves a closer look as the Magic, or any team, begins its draft preparations.
Next: Stanley Johnson
The argument for Arizona swingman Stanley Johnson is that he is equally as talented as Justise Winslow, but could be a defensive monster that would give Orlando the best 1/2/3 punch defensively imaginable.
Pairing an Andre Iguodala-type defender with Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton would be a horrid deathmatch for opposing backcourts trying to establish some type of offensive rhythm.
Johnson may not make the kind of impact Winslow does offensively, but he may yet. Johnson spent much of the season on mock drafts sitting ahead of Winslow before he struggled during the NCAA Tournament.
It is difficult to project, but he has a natural feel and a good looking three-point shot that would flush out the perimeter shooting with Evan Fournier developing into a fourth guard in that rotation for more shooting still.
The Magic need a shooter and another premier defender never hurts.
Next: Willie Cauley-Stein
Willie Cauley-Stein has been pushed for here already at OMD.
He is defensively exactly what is lacking from Orlando’s rotation right now, and he is slightly better than Dewayne Dedmon offensively, already.
Cauley-Stein is not good offensively, to be clear, but in the right offense and with the right adept point guard (see: Payton), he will find his buckets in much the same manner Tyson Chandler has. Chanlder has carved a full career even without a strong offensive game.
He is capable fully of flushing it down hard when Payton drops it to him, and that type of play has even rendered Dedmon competent for large tracts of time.
Next: Sam Dekker
Sam Dekker was just featured here at OMD as a potential late-lottery pick.
Dekker is just an intriguing guy due to his versatile skill set, great defense and savvy play.
He played better in the tournament than he did all season — stepping up in the NCAA tournament usually does inflate value some. Even so, Dekker appears to be a top-15 pick in this draft.
The argument people drive here is that Dekker is likely never going to be more than a very good role player, but the flip side of that coin is that the Magic need high-energy role players and adding a multi-positional defensive talent is always on the list.
Dekker could have a very high upside without ever being a featured offensive weapon, but he spots up well enough that teams will have to respect him.
Next: Kevon Looney
Kevon Looney may be the wildcard of this bunch.
He is the most raw of the guys worth dealing down for, but his length and defensive skills are again what is the attraction here.
He is a bit thin to play power forward initially, but with some work in the weight room, Looney could develop into a major force.
The Magic may be swinging longer term with this decision, but he is a natural talent basically in the mold of what Maurice Harkless was supposed to be (and was during stretches).
Getting rangy forwards with potential seems to be a recipe for either greatness or disaster, but that is only because the payout is so great one a player gets it like Looney seems to.
The proverbial flash in the pan label applies, so maybe this is not necessarily a pick the Magic covet without having some draft day finagling result in a team selling off a mid-first at a bargain.
Next: Montrezl Harrell
Lastly, Montrezl Harrell is a guy that can be obtained for a late first round pick most likely.
The argument against Harrell is his size, but it is hard to imagine him being much different than Chicago Bulls forward Taj Gibson.
Harrell plays bigger than he is because he is an outstanding athlete and there is no reason to believe his skill set would not transfer well to the pros.
Teams do not entirely avoid undersized-4s anymore because the league has started to change to the point that general managers value basketball players and athletes, of which Harrell is both.
He has a 7-foot-4 wingspan and plays above the rim, so it is hard to imagine how being 6-foot-8 really matters when you can play like you are a few inches taller.
Harrell would feed off Payton so nicely and get a lot of easy looks at the rim because he is active and has great hands.
If Harrell became one of the first forwards off the bench, which he could, the Magic could snag a good pickup by making a deal for an extra pick.
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