2015 NBA Draft: 18.5 Percent Is The Magic’s ‘Magic’ Number
The draft lottery will be held Tuesday night and the Orlando Magic have an 18.5 percent chance of obtaining a top-two pick this year.
This year’s crop of rookies really projects interestingly: There are two talents in the draft thought to be franchise-changing talents (Jahlil Okafor and Karl Anthony Towns). But beyond that pair, the rest of the lottery is more replete with depth than top-end talents.
The Magic are looking at nearly a one-in-five chance of landing either Towns or Okafor. Barring that, the team really is going to heavily consider Justise Winslow of Duke. The Magic could take Winslow if they land the third pick, or if not, pray he slips to the pick Orlando is slotted at.
And, as the chart below from Rukkus indicates, the first pick can pay major dividends:
Problematic also this year for Orlando is the seemingly consensus No. 3 and No. 4 prospects in the class (D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay) are both point guards, a position at which the Magic are already fully committed to Elfrid Payton.
Landing the No. 3 or No. 4 pick would likely just mean that Orlando would “slightly reach” on Winslow. But he is the guy who could give the Magic the best boost, given the team’s need for a wing defender and fast-break ignitor.
Because Winslow is widely considered the best wing player in this draft, it is not really any sort of reach — but much more about drafting the talent that best fits the Magic.
The Magic have a 9.7 percent chance at the third pick and a 26.1 percent chance at the fifth pick. Drafting sixth is set at 36 percent, so Orlando has better than a one-in-three chance of not even being in prime position to draft Winslow.
That is why we have taken preliminary measures to scout both Kristaps Porzingis and Mario Hezonja, both of whom could be options for the Magic if they rate higher than Winslow in the team’s draft preparations.
Stanley Johnson will also be in play for consideration. The Magic can still snag a top-tier swingman with the sixth pick, but Winslow will likely be gone if the team drafts from that spot.
The worst case scenario is at 8.4 percent that Orlando drafts seventh or eighth. If this happens, it really will not impact much though, because of the lack of disparity in the talents slated to go outside of the top five. There would also be the option to simply package the pick with a contract like Channing Frye’s and obtain some assets.
Magic general manager Rob Hennigan has certainly shown an ability to get crafty with draft night trades (citing Elfrid Payton’s acquisition as proof of trade flexibilities), and if he found a deal favorable to just let go of this year’s pick, he may do so.
The Magic could have teams trying to deal up to grab a guy whose value is being over projected. Sometimes that comes with a big payout.
Whatever the case, the Magic will hope on that 18 percent chance of a top-two pick. In all, the team has a 58.3 percent chance of landing a top-five pick. That is better than a coin flip the Magic will have a chance at Winslow (or Towns/Okafor).
We will be right on top of the draft lottery Tuesday night with immediate reactions to the Magic’s fate.