Could Tobias Harris get the max?
Tobias Harris is an incredibly unique player in the league and he is getting better. Will a team pony up in a big way this summer?
This entire season, the Orlando Magic have been prepping for what will come in July with Tobias Harris’ free agency. Contract extension negotiations did not seem to go anywhere this offseason as Harris and the Magic wanted to see what would happen this season to further assess his value.
While Harris played better this year than last and showed improvement with his 3-point shot and his scoring ability, there is a whiff of good player on a bad team about his performance and he still does little to make the players around him significantly better.
This is all to say, Harris is a 22-year-old combo forward with a lot of talent and potential but still no defined optimal role. That can happen with a team like the Magic who do not quite have their vision set yet.
And that makes determining Harris’ value all the more difficult as he enters restricted free agency.
The Magic have made it pretty well known publicly they will match just about any offer on Harris. Magic general manager Rob Hennigan has said the Magic will do whatever it takes to re-sign Harris. There had been previous reports the Magic were willing to match up to $13 million per year on Harris (pending any poison pill or back-loaded structures).
It is put up or shut up time . . . in July. It will come quickly.
And who knows what will happen. The salary cap is expected to rise to $69 million this year, but then balloon to $80-plus million the following year. League executives around the league know this and so there might be some weird contracts offered this year with teams willing to take a big hit this coming year knowing that contract will not be as big of a hit down the road.
And so that makes a statement from Chris Sheridan of Sheridan Hoops about Harris’ impending free agency that much more intriguing of a scenario:
"Just 22, Harris is going to get max money; you can bet your bottom dollar on that. But here’s two questions: Does he deserve it? Everything he has accomplished has been with awful teams. And will the Magic match? The educated guess here used to be yes, because that is what Rob Hennigan has told Magic season-ticket holders."
Let this be the first recorded instance of suggesting Tobias Harris will get the max. He is probably not an actual max guy, but a market max player. Put him in the second tier of small forward free agents after Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green and Kawhi Leonard. Those three players will definitely get max contracts.
But is Harris a better get than Khris Middleton or DeMarre Carroll? Is he going to get a max over them or more money than them? As Sheridan said, it is hard to tell whether Harris’ statistical output is a product of the teams he has been on and where he fits on a winning team.
The thought here and among Magic fans is that he is better suited as a sixth man. You do not pay the max for that. Harris still has to prove himself.
But if you ask some others, Harris is underused and underappreciated around the league.
Basketball Analytics author Stephen Shea said Harris is the NBA’s most underrated player:
"The elite [versatile forwards] must be able to score and rebound. They must also be able to shoot 3s. This season, only six players averaged at least 15 points and 6 rebounds per game, while also shooting 35% (on at least two 3-point attempts per game). Only six VFs met these minimum requirements. They were Love, Millsap, Bosh, Durant, LeBron, and our mystery man.Who might be missing? This grossly undervalued NBA player is not only among the NBA’s elite VFs, but also the youngest by four years to make the list.This player is only the 4th player in the last five seasons to meet the minimum requirements outlined above while still 22 years old or younger. The others were Love, Durant and George.The NBA’s most underrated player is Tobias Harris."
As Shea describes, Harris is a new brand of “versatile forward” that is becoming vogue throughout the league. These are forwards who can post up, face up and hit the 3-pointer. Harris is quickly becoming that. He posted up on 9.1 percent of his possessions and scored 1.04 points per possession on those post ups, that is second best on the team.
His 3-point field goal percentage also saw a nice bump to 36.4 percent, the highest of his career.
It was the sign of Harris’ improvement. He can put the ball in the basket and score when given the opportunity. The question remains whether he can continue to improve and get others involved or improve his efficiency.
The question this summer is how much that potential and that reality are worth.
It seems that Harris provides some pretty unique skills. So maybe it is worth a whole lot. Probably not the max, but then again… the NBA can get kind of crazy with money.