Orlando Magic Daily
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Where you pick in the NBA Draft matters

By Philip Rossman-Reich

Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Aaron Gordon (Arizona) poses for a photo with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Orlando Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Aaron Gordon (Arizona) poses for a photo with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Orlando Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 26, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives in front of Orlando Magic guard Victor Oladipo (5) as the Warriors beat the Magic 111-96 at Amway Center. Curry had a game-high 28 points and 8 assists. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) drives in front of Orlando Magic guard Victor Oladipo (5) as the Warriors beat the Magic 111-96 at Amway Center. Curry had a game-high 28 points and 8 assists. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports /

Diamonds are Tougher to Find

Last Magic No. 7 Pick: None
2014 No. 7 Pick: Julius Randle — -0.276 WS/48
Last No. 7 Pick All Star: Stephen Curry (2009) — 0.177 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 8.36%

There is really little difference in the significance of the sixth and seventh pick. Both have produced just seven All Stars in the last 30 years.

So again, teams are looking for a player to contribute at this point. Yes, the Stephen Currys pop up — thank Minnesota’s pick of Jonny Flynn at at six in 2009 for that — that can happen at any pick though. The odds of finding a star seem to decrease at this point.

So how do you draft for a solid player at this point in the Draft? Do you take best player available? Do you draft for need?

The general rule for the Draft is to draft best player available. The NBA makes it so easy for players to get traded, that problems with having too many of one type of player can be easily remedied. Plus, if you draft the best player, you have as good a chance of trading the pick for something else valuable in the Draft itself.

This is the point in the Draft where you start looking for sure singles and hope you can stretch them into multi-base hits. But getting the single is the most important. Taking a player who could develop into a home run can leave you striking out in the end — and wasting the pick while someone below you takes the Paul George or other All Star.

If the Magic end up falling back further from the fifth pick, then this is where you start picking a bit safer.

Next: The Long Shot