Where you pick in the NBA Draft matters

The Likely Spot

Last Magic No. 6 Pick: None
2014 No. 6 Pick: Marcus Smart — 0.077 WS/48
Last No. 6 Pick All Star: Damian Lillard (2012) — 0.138 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 35.99%

The Magic actually have the best odds to land the sixth pick in this year’s Draft rather than fifth. It is more likely that at least one team will jump into the Top 3 and push the Magic down a spot.

That could be fine though. But the percentages really begin to drop when you leave the top five. Eleven fifth overall picks became All Stars in the last 30 years, just seven sixth overall picks have.

By the time you reach this part of the Draft, you are starting to thin out the top-tier talents and are just hoping for a fine role player. Role players are good. But the farther you fall in the Draft, the thinner the talent crop gets. You just hope you have someone that can get through his rookie contract as a contributor.

You will see a lot more risks at the No. 6 pick — this is where the injured Nerlens Noel was picked, where the potential-filled Jan Veseley and Ekpe Udoh. You find some horrific misses as well as the big hits — Noel and Smart possibly being one and Lillard definitely being a big smash for the Trail Blazers.

As expected, the talent starts to fall off and at around the fifth or sixth pick, it does not seem like you are looking for a star as much as just hoping for a player who can develop and contribute meaningfully. This is the point of the Draft where drafting on need might start to make more sense because the best player available may be a real project.

Next: Diamonds are tougher to find