Where you pick in the NBA Draft matters

5 of 9

Dec 26, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Mike Miller (18) reacts after he made a three pointer against the Orlando Magic during the second half at Amway Center. Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Orlando Magic 98-89. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Fifth As Expected

Last Magic No. 5 Pick: Mike Miller (2000) — 0.106 WS/48
2014 No. 5 Pick: Dante Exum — -0.003 WS/48
Last No. 5 Pick All Star: DeMarcus Cousins (2010) — 0.104 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 26.15%

Why did I skip the fourth pick? The Magic cannot get the fourth pick in this year’s Draft, so no need to comment on its historical significance.

However, outside the Lottery, the Magic have a 1-in-4 chance at landing at their expected fifth slot. And now things get a little more interesting. There is no guarantee at the fifth pick that you will get a very useful player. For every DeMarcus Cousins and solid contributor in Jonas Valanciunas, there is a Thomas Robinson and Alex Len. Maybe the jury is not deliberating yet on Len.

The point being, the fifth pick has seen its struggles.

But it has seen some great picks too — Vince Carter, Scottie Pippen, Ray Allen. It is not likely you are going to get a superstar player, but you never know what you can find.

If the Magic can get a player like Mike Miller, the Rookie of the Year in 2001, at this spot, it would be a successful Draft. He was never a star, but was a solid role player and supporting player for the Magic in his younger days.

The Magic are likely going to be picking here or on the next slide at No. 6 — deciding between whatever is left between Mario Hezonja, D’Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Justise Winslow. As might be the case with previous picks historically, getting left with a player can be a bad thing.

Next: The Likely Spot