Orlando Magic Daily
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Where you pick in the NBA Draft matters

By Philip Rossman-Reich

Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Aaron Gordon (Arizona) poses for a photo with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Orlando Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Aaron Gordon (Arizona) poses for a photo with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Orlando Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Top pick is almost a guarantee

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Last Magic No. 1 Pick: Dwight Howard (2004) — .178 WS/48
2014 No. 1 Pick: Andrew Wiggins — 0.034 WS/48
Last No. 1 Pick All Star: Anthony Davis (2012) — .220 WS/48
2015 Odds for Magic: 8.8%

The top pick brings the greatest chance of securing an All Star and a franchise-changing player. Having the pick of the litter should give any team that advantage.

Nearly three in four top overall picks pan out into solid players and All-Star players. Andrew Wiggins, the top overall pick in 2014, was the 2015 Rookie of the Year and everyone sees the star potential in the young Wolves forward.

Winning the lottery is just that, winning the lottery. It is the biggest prize given out in the NBA.

The top overall pick has won the Rookie of the Year Award four times since 2004. The names are obvious — Blake Griffin, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and, now, Andrew Wiggins.

Even if they do not win the award, they tend to turn into solid players the following year. And 27 of the past 35 top overall picks have become NBA All Stars. The weight of stardom can be tough for a rookie to carry so early on.

But eventually they tend to find a way to carry that burden. More often than not, this is where you most likely find your lifetime-changing star. The other picks, have a much lower hit rate.

Next: Sloppy Seconds