Where you pick in the NBA Draft matters

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Aaron Gordon, Adam Silver, Orlando Magic, NBA Draft

Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Aaron Gordon (Arizona) poses for a photo with NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Orlando Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Looking for a star in the NBA Draft? Where you pick historically seems to matter. And where stars come from in the Draft is quite unpredictable.

The NBA Draft Lottery has put a wrench in predicting or talking about the Draft for now. Yes, the list of players officially entered into the Draft is complete and released. Teams will get their first chances to really interview and get to know the players in the coming weeks — most starting at the NBA Draft Combine on May 12.

Believe it or not, the Magic have the best odds of ending up with the sixth pick in the Draft rather than the fifth pick, where they would end up without a lottery system.

A good chunk of the Magic’s rebuild has been focused on the Draft. No one is hiding from that fact. The first two years were meant to be hard so the Magic could restock their talent pool with young players that could develop into potential stars and grow with the franchise.

The hope was that the Magic would build their core this way, rather than having to overpay for an uncertain “star” or trade for some disgruntled star and try to convince him to stay and be their leader. This is a deliberate rebuild.

Orlando will continue to put an emphasis on the Draft, which puts the team at the whims of those ping pong balls.

The numbers really show what a crapshoot that can be.

Josh Cohen of OrlandoMagic.com took a look at the percentage of All Stars to come from each pick 1-8 (where the Magic can pick this season) in since 1980. He discovered that really the top pick is the only one that guarantees an All Star (77 percent turn into All Stars). The percentages drop dramatically from there.

And so, it becomes clear where you are picking really matters in finding a consistent talent. There are always diamonds in the rough, but the odds are that a team 1-8 will get a solid, but not franchise-changing player. Those become rarer and rarer the deeper you go into the Draft.

This is about managing expectations. And each pick frankly should come with its own.

Next: The top pick brings the greatest guarantee