Victor Oladipo is still improving as a jump shooter. Defenses seem happy to let him shoot away. This summer, he has to make defenses respect his J.
The Orlando Magic’s backcourt is the brightest spot. If anything feels very certain with the Magic in this rebuild it is that this team sees a future in building around Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. March was good to both guards and they are the ones controlling the ball and leading the team it would seem.
The trick in rebuilding will come in how best to surround them. That was the focus of Zach Lowe’s latest analysis of the Magic backcourt on Grantland.
Of course, the unique (perhaps bad) thing about this backcourt is that it seems to go counter to the current trend in the NBA. As Lowe so bluntly puts it, neither Oladipo nor Payton are shooters. They have a long way to go to get there. Entering Friday’s game in Minnesota, Payton is shooting 34.8 percent on jump shots this year while Oladipo is shooting 34.0 percent on jump shots after shooting 32.6 percent on jumpers last season.
From Lowe:
"Oladipo remains a below-average shooter and ranks toward the bottom among shooting guards in gravity and distraction scores — proprietary SportVU tracking stats that measure how closely defenders stick to players (gravity) and how willing defenders are to drift away from those same players (distraction). Payton has the third-worst distraction score among all guards in the NBA, ahead of only Rajon Rondo and Ronnie Price, per data from STATS provided to Grantland. When Payton doesn’t have the ball, his defenders tend to ignore him to block Oladipo’s path to the lane; Oladipo and Monta Ellis could have a fun conversation about that."
You can see why defenses are not respecting these two quite yet. The way defenses guard them in the pick and roll is lay back, clog the paint and prevent Nikola Vucevic from rolling and from either player getting downhill. The Magic’s biggest challenge right now is finding more ways to space the floor for Payton and Oladipo to use their best skill — driving.
Yet, there is still no denying Oladipo’s jumper has gotten better and he has gotten more confident from outside the paint when he is not driving.
Take a look at Oladipo’s shot chart from last season compared to this season (courtesy of NBA.com):
2013-14
2014-15
There is still not a lot of green in Oladipo’s shot chart. There seems to be a lot more yellow, meaning he is nearing league averages, particularly around the rim.
The numbers are not lying though. Oladipo is improving as a jump shooter, even if incrementally. At some point, teams will have to respect his jumper and that will open up driving lanes.
Of course, it is still a work in progress and there are few shooters surrounding Oladipo — and Payton — to make defenses do anything other than collapse the paint and close off driving lanes. Oladipo is being forced into lower percentage shots and given tough angles through the lane.
Look no further than his last few games. Against the Timberwolves on Friday, Oladipo shot 4 for 19, missing all six of his 3-pointers. He followed that up Saturday with another poor shooting performance against the Bucks — 6 for 19. He did score eight of the team’s final 11 points to help Orlando secure the win.
Like with so many things with the Magic, it is a work in progress.
For Victor Oladipo to take the next step offensively, he is going to have to continue his improvement around the rim and his ability to get to the free throw line. But he is also going to have to improve his efficiency from beyond the arc and prove to defenses that they must respect his jump shot.
That part will not be easy. It is going to take his making shots early in the season and making defenses pay. It will not take the gradual improvement he has made this year — and games like he had this weekend are telling defenses their strategy can work to limit Oladipo (even if the Magic end up winning).
Like so many players for the Magic, this summer is going to be a big one for Oladipo. He will have to continue his upward trajectory.
He has made some incredible leaps this season, but there is still a long way to go.