Should we reconsider Elfrid Payton’s Rookie of the Year candidacy?

Nov 7, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives to the basket as Minnesota Timberwolves forward Robbie Hummel (4) defends during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 112-103 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic guard Elfrid Payton (4) drives to the basket as Minnesota Timberwolves forward Robbie Hummel (4) defends during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 112-103 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Should we reconsider just giving Rookie of the Year to Andrew Wiggins? One writers says Payton has made a bigger impact and deserves the award.

Much like last year, the Rookie of the Year voting probably ended long ago.

This award is rarely given for anything more than raw statistics. The Magic learned that last year when Michael Carter-Williams‘ early season outburst was enough to sway voters when all advanced statistics suggested Victor Oladipo was the superior player.

Carter-Williams was playing fine, but was a high-usage, high-turnover player allowed free reign to wrack up stats and turnovers. Partly because no one else on that Sixers team could.

No one is holding grudges here.

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  • And no one would hold grudges if the voters name Andrew Wiggins as this year’s Rookie of the Year, as they are expected to do.

    Wiggins has earned that with his numbers. The top overall pick from last year’s draft has put in a lot of points and already established himself as the leading scorer and bets player on the Timberwolves. Minnesota definitely has a future all star and star in the making, as everyone expected.

    So who gets second?

    A look at NBA.com’s Rookie Ladder from Scott Howard-Cooper would suggest Nerlens Noel is second among rookies with Elfrid Payton third.

    Payton is very much in this conversation, however. And according to ESPN analytics reporter Ben Alamar, Payton actually should win Rookie of the Year over Wiggins because of the contribution he brings to his team.

    "As the No. 10 pick in the draft, Payton came into the season with the reputation of a strong passer who could defend and rebound as a point guard. Payton leads his team in assist percentage (31.7) with backup point guard Luke Ridnour in second place with 21.7 percent. Defensively, Payton’s 1.9 steals per 36 minutes also leads the Magic. He has the highest total rebound percentage of all wings and guards with over 500 minutes on the Magic at 7.8. Additionally, when Payton is on the court, the Magic score four more points per 100 possessions and allow one and a half fewer points per 100 possessions.So, despite his poor but developing shooting, Payton has clearly had a major impact on his team, and that impact only looks more impressive when put in the context of other rookies."

    It is an interesting point. Payton really has been a major contributor to the Magic and the offense does run significantly better with him on the floor. According to Basketball-Reference, the Magic are 4.6 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Payton on the floor and 1.5 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Payton on the floor.

    That is pretty stark. Wiggins pops in at 1.6 points per 100 possessions better offensively, but 2.1 points per 100 possessions worse on defense.

    There could be something to this bigger impact on his team argument.

    The raw stats though are what this thing gets decided on and very few voters are paying attention to the Timberwolves or the Magic. Here, Wiggins far outshines Payton:

    PlayerGMPFG%3P%FT%TRBASTSTLBLKTOVPTS
    Elfrid Payton7029.2.421.250.5274.06.11.50.22.58.5
    Andrew Wiggins6835.1.433.324.7424.41.81.10.62.015.8

    Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 3/20/2015.

    Those are the numbers the voters will be seeing more often than not. This is what they will make their decision based on. These numbers probably tell you all you need to know. It says all the voters need to know.

    It is good to know Payton has made such a positive impact on his team. But it is not enough to make any waves in the Rookie of the Year competition.

    Next: How did ESPN review the Magic?