The Magic’s starting frontcourt has struggled mightily and it may be time for a change.
The Orlando Magic’s nine games under coach James Borrego have illustrated a striking difference between the play of Orlando’s guards and its frontcourt. The story for its starting frontcourt is not a good one, and adjustments to the lineup seem imperative after having been thoroughly outplayed by opponents in the two losses to the Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Hornets this week.
On one level, it seems strange to think of Orlando’s frontcourt being so abysmal. Nikola Vucevic is by most reckonings an All-Star whose time is just yet to come. He is arguably the most crafty big man in Orlando Magic history, able to finish well with both hands, a possessor of feathery soft touch and an instinctive rebounder who is capable of cleaning the glass with the best (No. 5 in NBA in rebounding through March 2). But beyond Vucevic, the question marks begin, most especially in the starting lineup it turns out.
Orlando’s starting frontcourt has been out-scored 95 to 77 in the past two contests while also having been out-rebounded 56 to 42.
The Magic allowed the Atlanta frontcourt to hit 55.2 percent from the floor, including seven of 13 from three-point range.
Charlotte milked 43 points out of Al Jefferson, Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the latter two of whom are not particularly strong offensive players (at least yet). Zeller repeatedly found his way to the offensive boards — not boxed out by Channing Frye — as he grabbed three first half offensive rebounds to aid him in scoring eight relatively easy points on the Magic.
What has gone wrong?
Paul Millsap went absolutely bonkers in the Atlanta contest, hitting four threes in the first quarter as the Hawks raced out to a 12-point lead after one period. DeMarre Caroll repeatedly found the corner pocket open as he bagged three triples from the best spot on the arc.
Al Horford was quiet but extremely efficient, finding that Nikola Vucevic had enough responsibilities on the defensive end that he could not contest Horford’s automatic midrange jumper (Jeff Teague‘s dribble penetration keeping Vucevic in the paint did not help either). While the Magic were able to score 46 points between Channing Frye, Vucevic and Tobias Harris, the Hawks obliterated the trio on the glass and most of it was Magic players just simply not boxing out.
That is just poor fundamentals and poor court awareness — it has nothing to do with talent.
Next: What can be said for the reserves?
Orlando’s reserves are shining
The call for change is echoing very audibly, but as to what these changes should be, it is less easy to discern.
Outside of Vucevic (and even inclusive of him at times), the best Orlando big on the court has been 25-year-old Dewayne Dedmon. He has been getting calls early in the first quarter to come in at the 4-spot, and then remaining on at center when Vucevic heads for his breather.
While Dedmon lacks offensive refinement, he is good at choosing his spots and doing what he does do well — finish at the rim. After checking in to the Charlotte contest, he quickly found a cutting lane and was rewarded with a perfectly executed lob from Luke Ridnour.
Early in the second quarter he snatched an offensive rebound to create a second shot, deflected a loose rebound to create a third, and the Magic’s Andrew Nicholson finally capitalized by knocking down a jumper. At the half, Dedmon had been credited with four rebounds, two of which were on the offensive end, as well as having come up with a couple of steals.
Dedmon, Maurice Harkless and backup point guard Luke Ridnour finished the half +5, though the Magic trailed by a point. Harkless made the most of his new-found playing time, and Dedmon has been working hard all season.
Next: Is the effort there?
So, who is giving full effort then?
Given the struggles of the starters, it seems more and more that it should be the gritty play of Harkless and Dedmon that gets the minutes.
Dedmon came in for the fourth quarter and went full on beast on the glass again, grabbing and scoring on pure effort alone following a Ben Gordon miss which capped an 8-1 Magic run and forced the Hornets to call for a timeout. His block minutes later on Cody Zeller was a picturesque defensive play, save for the fact he did graze Zeller’s arm and pick up a personal. Just the effort alone vindicated Dedmon’s play though.
Dedmon finished the Hornets contest with nine boards in 20 minutes of play, his most minutes played since Feb. 11 against New York when he saw 21. In Dedmon’s last eight games, he is averaging 16 minutes per game and tallying 3.8 points, 4.4 rebound and 1.4 blocks. Per-36, that works out to 8.8 points, 9.9 rebounds and 3.15 blocks. All of those numbers, if sustainable, are starter-worthy on this Magic team.
So, start Dedmon, right?
Maybe not.
Dedmon’s lack of offensive skills fail to complement the Magic starters in the same way Channing Frye’s pretty three-point stroke does. While Frye may not even be a casted shadow of Dedmon defensively, he is one of the few Magic shooters other teams fear.
Because Nikola Vucevic has been attracting so many double and triple teams, Frye is having easy pickings at the arc. There is just no other power forward the Magic can expect consistent three-point shooting from.
Andrew Nicholson has shown hints he can be that guy, but he is every bit as much of a defensive liability as Frye is, if not more so. But that is the frustration of a mediocre, even bad, team. The talent level is so low as to have a lot of guys who do some things well, but not a rich enough blend to produce winning basketball.
Next: Where is that bearded fella now?
What is with Kyle O’Quinn‘s PT?
Philip Rossman-Reich speculated here at OMD that O’Quinn’s trade value is actually higher than Tobias Harris at the deadline And as debateably brazen as that is, the fact is O’Quinn is not even seeing court time and we are really left to guess as to why. The Norfolk State bruiser has appeared in just six minutes over the last four games, failing to see court in two of those contests.
O’Quinn is an aggressive and pesky defender, and he is another capable shot blocker much like Dedmon. His three-point shot is rather grotesque, but he hits some and he passes out of the high post better than any other Magic big. O’Quinn is foul prone, but he us not being asked to play starter’s minutes (anymore at least).
O’Quinn is going to find a nice contract somewhere this offseason, but will the Magic commit to him in light of the fact he is not even stepping on the court right now? He would have been one of the most pleasant developments of the Magic’s 2012 draft crew, with both Harkless and Nicholson having their respective struggles. But in recent times, his rotund beard has done nothing but linger on the bench (and actually now on the floor of some barber shop).
And with the Magic essentially having dug lower than the bedrock now, when will the time for change come?
Next: Should the starting lineup change?
So who gets the starting roles? Does it change?
Dedmon is a lock to get his minutes now, it seems.
He is a consistent threat on the glass, plays tough defense every night, and is only getting better. But outside of Dedmon and Vucevic, it is really just an endless list of questions. There is the matter of whether Nicholson can be consistent or whether Sunday night against the Hornets was just a flash in the pan.
Harkless has to stay mentally engaged on both ends of the court, but his flashes are as bright as any player’s on the roster. His backdoor cut in the Hawks game was run picture perfect and drew some “oohs” and “ahhs” from the Philips Arena crowd. In the Hornets game, his block on Bismack Biyombo, though called a foul, was a top highlight of the game. All three reserves have outplayed the starters, and that’s a problem.
Aaron Gordon, too, has had his moments. He was three for three from the floor in the first half against the Miami Heat on Feb. 25, but he rolled his ankle and has not played since. He is one of the Magic’s best defenders already, and could eventually evolve into Shawn Marion-type combo forward.
If he can stay healthy, he is in the same discussion as the other Magic reserves. In other words, he could start, too.
At what point does James Borrego simply bench Channing Frye? Is Tobias Harris the best answer for the starters as weak as he has been defensively? The case for starting Dedmon is certainly there, even with the concerns previously addressed here in play.
O’Quinn could easily step in and start getting minutes again. Nicholson and Harkless could be in the middle of being showcased, but their minutes have been productive.
The numbers are fairly illustrative, though. The Magic have been dominated by opposing frontcourts early in games, and the starters are not getting the job done. The Hawks do happen to have two All-Stars in its frontcourt, and the Hornets’ Al Jefferson has been an All-Star. But allowing the likes of DeMarre Caroll, Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to do damage, too, is less excusable.
While all three are quality NBA players, the Magic cannot consistently allow fringe starters to step up and have near-career nights. It stands to reason that effort alone can prevent a lot of this, and while the case could be made that Frye and Harris are sandbagging it defensively, it is more productive to just note that Dedmon’s energy changes games. He is willing to sacrifice his body and play his heart out.
Can that statement be made for Frye or Harris? Probably not. Or at least not in the same way.
Until the starters begin to play like starters, the experiments can certainly begin. Borrego’s first of those experiments came in the backcourt by supercharging the minutes of Willie Green. Elfrid Payton was erratic, so Borrego turned elsewhere. But he has been far less quick to do that with the frontcourt.
While Harris can score and Frye can shoot, the Magic’s issues run far deeper than that. Vucevic can’t grab every rebound and he shouldn’t have to. Dedmon solves that.
There is little rim protection with Frye or Harris at the 4-spot. O’Quinn fixes that. Nicholson adds scoring. Harkless high spirited defense. Everyone is bringing too much to the table to ride in the stagnancy of the starters’ mediocrity.
Change can come, but it has to begin with giving the guys who play hardest the most minutes.
This Magic team is all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason, so the remainder of the year can be spent allowing guys audition for larger roles. We already know at this point what Frye and Harris can do, but the same statement can’t be made about the likes of the younger talent on this roster.
Next: What has been the effect of James Borrego's tinkering?