WED JAN 7 @ DENVER
Time: 9 PM ET
Vitals: 15-20 (.429); 10-8 at home; 6-9 vs. Eastern Conference, negative-1.8 point difference; 2-game winning streak
The Denver Nuggets essentially would be a top-five team in the East, but many do not really consider the disparity in the Conferences as Denver’s primary pitfall.
The team has floundered with a deep roster bereft of top-end talent for quite some time. Since the departure of Carmelo Anthony, Denver has lacked a closer. And Ty Lawson still is not necessarily that guy.
Featured Matchup: Point Guard — Ty Lawson vs. Elfrid Payton
Ty Lawson impressed me at North Carolina. Why? Because he played through turf toe. Anyone who has ever experienced turf toe can attest to the crippling effect it has on the foot. He played through it in the NCAA tournament, and thrived.
Detractors contend Lawson has not evolved much over his career. He is still the same gunner and penetrating guard he has always been.
The same borderline All-Star.
But the one thing Lawson has shown over his career is that he can score the basketball. He averages a team-high 16 points per game.
The thing is, Lawson is a great distributor too, dishing out more than 10 dimes per game, while guiding an offense that ranks 11th in scoring. Lawson only shoots 42 percent from the floor, but he is good at drawing contact too, averaging 5.5 free throw attempts per game.
Elfrid Payton has his work cut out for himself, in other words.
Payton’s best chance is to force mass miscues, because the Denver Nuggets play breakneck basketball and can tend to get sloppy. The Nuggets average 14.3 turnovers per game, while hitting just 32 percent from three as a team.
But Payton has the ability to disrupt guards at half court, and trapping with Victor Oladipo could result in a turnover mess for the Nuggets.
Lawson can shoot lights out, and like any guard with a great jumper, he can bury the Magic nearly single handedly if he gets hot.
If he does not? The Nuggets have Kenneth Faried, aka “The Manimal,” to clean up the mess.
Denver ranks No. 3 in the league in rebounding with 46 rebounds per game. Faried and frontcourt mate Timofey Mozgov combine to average nearly six offensive rebounds per game combined. They are a big part of the Nuggets’ low-post dominance.
Heavily to its detriment, though, Orlando lacks such a closer too.
Victor Oladipo can score, but the Magic need a guy who can be isolated at half court, a guy who it can be cleared out for and a bucket expected. Tobias Harris has obviously done the same too with his late-game heroics this season.
That may be what this game comes down to if it is close: the battle of Lawson against whomever the Magic go to in the closing moments.
Typically, this is not a post play, so the fact the Magic’s premier player is a 5-man in Nikola Vucevic works against the team here. Oladipo will likely get some wing isolation, but the hope would be to free a hotter Evan Fournier for triples if possible. Something has to happen to restore the Frenchman’s confidence at some point.
Denver should be able to defend its homecourt, notwithstanding that the Magic have played their best ball on the road.