Things can always change at the 11th hour. Deadlines have a funny way of doing that.
As things stand now, though, Tobias Harris seems set to hit restricted free agency as neither side appears close to agreeing to a contract extension.
The latest report comes from Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders, who reports Harris’ camp sees him as a budding young star who should be paid accordingly:
"The Magic and Harris have had talks, and those talks are said to be continuing. However, it does seem they are not close in a valuation. Harris’ camp sees him as an elite level scorer that has star potential and wants him paid accordingly. The Magic are not ready to pay that kind of price and seem more interested in letting Harris play out the season to see what the marketplace thinks. The Magic can always match a bigger dollar deal next summer, which gives them time to see if Tobias is really the player his representation believes he can be. For Harris’ part, he’d like to remain in Orlando and there seems to be room for a conversation if the gap between the Magic’s number and Harris’ number closes. That could happen before the deadline, however this one looks like it’s not going to get done. The one is like 30/70 that it doesn’t."
If Harris has more nights like Tuesday night, when he scored 25 points on 9-for-18 shooting, posting a 60.6 percent true shooting percentage, will make the Magic believe he might be worth something closer to star money. Then again, Harris has been a pretty consistent producer for the Magic — 15.6 points per game on 46.1 percent shooting in his 89 games in a Magic uniform.
Last week, it was reported that Harris’ camp was not planning on signing an extension.
None of this is particularly news. Many figured the Magic would wait and see what would happen with Harris on the open market. The Magic, after all, retain the right to match any contract offer for him.
At this point, it is just too difficult to determine Harris’ value on the open market. While Kemba Walker got a four-year, $48 million extension, he has played almost the entirety of his three seasons as a rotation player, averaging 16.0 points per game for his career and 17.7 points per game the last two.
Does Harris see himself in this range or higher? The numbers seem to suggest Harris would come in lower than that. But not much.
With the Magic already having signed Nikola Vucevic to a reported four-year, $53 million deal, the Magic have tied up some cap into players currently on the roster. Orlando also has Victor Oladipo‘s future to think about in a few years, not to mention Maurice Harkless‘ future.
It makes sense at this point for the Magic to wait and see what the market will bear for Harris. It has been really tough to gauge his value as there are a glut of small forwards in the league right now with his ability. Harris has never quite fit the definition of either position. The one thing the Magic cannot afford to do is overvalue him and overpay for a player that is still trying to prove himself.
Both sides seem content to watch how this year plays out.
Harris has made it clear publicly his preference is to stay in Orlando. There is no reason to think that will change after October 31. What will change is other teams will get the chance to bid for his services, so to speak. Ultimately, the Magic will have to decide whether he is worth keeping.