The Nikola Vucevic conundrum

From the moment Nikola Vucevic proved to be a double-double machine, it became clear what the first big test for Rob Hennigan and his “Process” would be.

How do you evaluate Nikola Vucevic’s worth?

The whole — maybe not the whole, but a good chunk — of the Magic’s financial flexibility for the future and stability at center would be tied in to how much Vucevic can make on the open market and how much the Magic feel he is worth. The post-third year extension negotiations would be absolutely key to determining just how savvy a general manager Rob Hennigan is and could be as he plans the Magic’s future.

Vucevic has earned this difficult decision for the Magic. He came to the team in the Dwight Howard trade as an unknown — and under-used — commodity from the Sixers. In two years with Orlando, he has averaged 13.6 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. There still seems to be potential for growth from him as he gets more offensive touches in the post and improves his defense. He is not a rim protector but is improving his general defensive positioning and keeping the pick and roll out of the paint on his soft hedges.

Vucevic still has a lot to improve upon. And his extension negotiations will be about his potential as much as it is about what he gives the Magic now.

So what is that?

That is the big question. It is one that is really difficult to answer as the Magic assess his value and see what Vucevic wants.

Zach Lowe of Grantland tried to tackle this question:

"The Magic can nip that process with an extension, but given Vucevic’s strong play, it may cost them $11 million or $12 million per season to do that. And that would be a bet — on Vucevic improving his defense and functioning on offense without much shooting around him.Vucevic is a nimble post scorer for a behemoth. He’s quick sliding around the floor, and he’s strong enough to seal deep position against almost anyone. He shot about 46 percent on post-ups, per Synergy, with a bunch of crafty moves he can pull with either hand."

That $11 or $12 million number seems to be the range must have Vucevic pegged for. When Larry Sanders signed a four-year, $44 million extension in August 2013, that seemed to be the range many expected Vucevic to fall into.

In Sanders’ third year, though, he had a PER of 18.7 and 6.0 win shares for a Bucks team that made the Playoffs. Sanders was a serious contender to win Most Improved Player of the Year and a game-changer on the defensive end. His off-court issues and injuries quieted him last year with that extension secured.

Vucevic after his third year, had a PER of 18.8 and 4.4 win shares for a Magic team that won just 23 games. Unlike Sanders, Vucevic is a more consistent offensive force and has no off-field issues. His only issue may be an aversion to finishing strong at the rim, a lack of rim protection and shot-blocking for a 7-footer and a tendency to play away from the basket at times.

Either way, his numbers are comparable to Sanders. You would think their contracts would be too.

Of course, that does not get into the whole issue of the new TV deal coming up and the wash of new money that is coming. That would be a hint to the Magic to get this deal done now even if they have to overpay a bit or risk really getting Vucevic his cash next summer in restricted free agency — or even after that in regular free agency.

You can see the different factors playing into the negotiations with Vucevic. It puts the Magic in a very interested bargaining position.

Because ultimately this season is about figuring out what the Magic actually have and beginning to parse out who is part of the team’s future. That will have to come a bit early with Vucevic. The Magic have to make a commitment to him or be prepared to let him walk.

This obviously is not an easy decision. This is a pretty large commitment the Magic have to make. It will shape who the team will be moving forward and which direction this rebuild takes.

It is not something to take lightly. The trend right now seems to be to let these players hit restricted free agency and let the market set itself. That can be dangerous as it takes the power out of your hands as an organization. But it also makes sure you do not overpay by giving you the power to reject the offer sheet and let the player walk should he get too much in the open market.

This is a lot to play on.

Rob Hennigan has proven himself to be a savvy talent evaluator in trades and in the draft. His free agent picks will get tested a bit this year with the signings of Channing Frye and Ben Gordon. His assessment of Nikola Vucevic’s value and whether he can reach an extension agreement before the October 31 deadline could be something that really sets the direction of this franchise moving forward.