Nikola Vucevic and Kyle O’Quinn: An Underrated Combo

Mar 30, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic (9) celebrates after scoring in the first half against the Toronto Raptors at Amway Center. The Raptors won 98-93. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

In the Magic’s peak years surrounding that 2009 Finals run, their ideal offense featured Dwight Howard in the middle of the floor, surrounded by four shooters. That fourth shooter, in the power forward slot, was either Rashard Lewis or Ryan Anderson. For a time Brandon Bass was the starter, but even that was a “lite” version of the same idea, of having a floor-spacer in that position.

That center-forward equation has since changed quite a bit. Nikola Vucevic and Kyle O’Quinn are the Magic’s primary “traditional” big men — which is to say, they’re probably not going to shoot three’s like Channing Frye. They’re not bound to the paint like a Tyson Chandler or a DeAndre Jordan, but they don’t extend past midrange. While O’Quinn seems firmly entrenched in the “back up big man” role, there’s been times when he and Vucevic have shared the floor. That’s a big shift from the Van Gundy days, when Howard and Marcin Gortat rarely played together.

How then, does the team transition from the 1-in-4-out scheme to something closer to the Memphis Grizzlies? They play with two players—Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph—who operate in the post and midrange, and both get decent usage. The Magic won’t be in this situation all the time, probably not even most of the time, but navigating the “twin towers” lineup will be an important development if Vucevic and O’Quinn continue to receive playing time together.

Last season, according to NBAwowy.com, the duo logged about 250 minutes together. To be honest, that’s a pretty small sample size. Still, it’s an important sample, because almost all of those minutes came after Glen Davis‘ release. The Vucevic-O’Quinn combo logged about 17% of all available minutes from that point onward, so in that sense its significant. That being said, the usual small sample caveats apply here: We’re going to need to see a lot more of them together to be certain how effective the pairing is, and what happened last season might not carry over to the next one.

During that shared time, Vucevic had a heavy 25% usage rate — which is to say he took a shot, passed into a shot, or was fouled 25% of all plays. O’Quinn had a more modest 17.7% usage rate. In other words, while both were involved in the offense, Vucevic continued to be the primary option. However, this is not to say O’Quinn was ineffective, as we’ll soon see.

So what actually got done? Good things, actually! Turns out that both players actually shot better when they shared the court, compared to when they played without the other:

Without the other player

Vucevic FG%

52.6%

50.3%

O’Quinn FG%

58.2%

47.9%

That’s not even the best part. What’s really encouraging is that the team performed much better with both players, compared to only one of them or neither of them:

Points Scored Per 100 Possessions

Vucevic+O’Quinn

110.6

O’Quinn only

104.1

Vucevic only

102.0

Neither playing

99.7

That’s an enormous difference in offensive effectiveness. A leap of about 11 points per-100 possessions is a worst-to-first kind of leap. Really, I mean that literally: the difference between the worst offense (the Bucks) and the best offense (the Spurs) was 11 points per-100 possessions.

Again, this is a small sample size, and this is very noisy data. It’s unlikely the team’s offense is actually at an ultra-elite level when Nikola Vucevic and Kyle O’Quinn play together. Still, its an encouraging sign that the pairing was mostly successful when it did get used in the latter part of the season.

Side note: This was the second-best two-man lineup on offense for the Magic, among pairings that played any significant amount of time.  The first best?  O’Quinn and Jameer Nelson, which makes sense when you consider that Nelson was among the most prolific guards in the league last season at generating assists on midrange shots.

Mar 28, 2014; Orlando, FL, USA; Orlando Magic forward Kyle O’Quinn (2) celebrates with center Nikola Vucevic (9) against the Charlotte Bobcats at Amway Center. Center.The Magic won 110-105 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s go back to the relationship between the two big men. It’s an easier situation to navigate than for other teams because they can both move out to about the 18-foot range, which keeps the paint from being too clogged, but it’s not entirely simple either. At least one of the two bigs needs to have some passing acumen, especially when passing to the other big. That high-low passing is what made teams like the Gasol-Bynum Lakers work, and how the Grizzlies get by today.

For the Magic, O’Quinn is the passer. Vucevic very rarely assisted O’Quinn, dishing to him only three times in the post-Davis part of the season. O’Quinn, however, figured more prominently into Vucevic’s shot attempts. Of all the assisted buckets made by Vucevic, while both of them shared the court, 22.9% of them were assisted by O’Quinn. That’s the second-most among all teammates, trailing only Jameer Nelson (28.6% of assists).

What does this mean for the Magic going forward? Well, maybe nothing, depending on how much Channing Frye gets used. Despite being very effective when he’s played, O’Quinn might be buried behind Frye, Tobias Harris, and even Aaron Gordon for power forward minutes. He’ll probably still get playing time…but as Vucevic’s substitute. Still, if the coaching staff does choose to go with this combo again, they’ll have some comfort knowing that the dropoff from Frye to O’Quinn offensively might not be as big as we’d think.