Signing Analysis: Channing Frye’s Fit with the Magic

The Orlando Magic’s pursuit of a Power Forward has ended. Today the Magic agreed to a four-year $32 million dollar deal with former Phoenix Suns Power Forward — and Tobias Harris‘ first cousin — Channing Frye. Some fans, likely still grief-stricken over previous Magic off-season hit singles such as, the Aaron Afflalo trade, the drafting of Aaron Bleepin’ Gordon, paying a steep price for  Elfrid Payton, and/or the signing Ben Gordon‘s corpse to a $4.5 million dollar contract for the year met the the move of signing Channing Frye with rampant disapproval. While I myself have been fairly displeased with the previous moves made this off-season (see here) this move is different. Channing Frye is a great signing and based off of the contract Josh McRoberts had agreed to earlier in the day, Orlando didn’t overpay much, if at all, to acquire Frye’s services. Now if you base your opinion of Frye fully off his basic stats — 11.1 points and 5.21 rebounds per game —  then you’re likely underwhelmed, however allow me to enlighten you as to why Channing Frye is not only a good player, but why his fit is so excellent on this current Orlando Magic team.

Frye is a very unique kind of stretch power forward. Nearly all of his three-point attempts come at the top of the key, only 43 of his 432 three-point attempts came from the corners (You can take a look at his shot chart here). Now what’s important about this is that this creates ideal spacing for his teammates. In fact the off/on numbers for Frye last year with the Suns is kind of startling. The Suns had an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) that was 4.3 percent better with him on the court and scored 8.3 points more per 100 possession as well.

One of the knocks you’ll see about this deal is Frye’s sub par defense, and while I agree the pairing of Frye and Vucevic defensively isn’t ideal the stats show he isn’t nearly the negative impact defensively one may think. With Frye on the court the Suns are only .7 points per 100 worse and opponents increased their eFG% by 1.2 percent. At the rim, he allowed opponents to shoot 52.2 percent, which isn’t a good number but for comparison’s sake Nikola Vucevic allowed opponents to shoot 56.4 percent and Tobias Harris gave up 53.4 percent at the rim. Now what can we take from this? Frye’s positive impact offensively is much greater than his miniscule defensive deficiencies.

Now where does he fit with the Magic? I expect Frye to come in immediately and start at power forward. The Magic are in desperate need of shooting and floor spacing and he’s a hand in glove fit in those areas. With summer league underway we’ve seen that the Magic very possibly view Aaron Gordon as a ball handling three, combining that with Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo and you’ve got quite a plethora of guys who can run pick and pop with Frye. Another plus side this signing is guys like Oladipo and Payton have more room to work when attacking the lanes thanks to Frye camping out at the top of the key. On the defensive side of the ball Frye isn’t much of an athlete but he does add length, Frye sports a 7.2’5 wingspan which should help Orlando some.

Now one aftershock of this signing has to be what does Orlando do about all this power forward depth? My guess here is that the Magic move Tobias Harris into a permanent 6th man role and they likely trade Andrew Nicholson if the value is there or send him to the D-League to gain some value. Harris definitely still can have a role on this team as he offers a different type of skill set than Frye does. As far as Nicholson goes I just don’t see where he fits anymore. I believe Andrew was drafted to be a stretch four and that’s why the Magic put an emphasis on him learning how to shoot it and even encouraged him to do so, now with Frye in the mix for the long haul it doesn’t make sense for Orlando to replicate those skill sets. This may actually be the best thing for Nicholson in the long run anyways, he really is a fantastic post player and it’d be best for him if he was on a team that allowed him to play to his strengths.

Channing Frye has a defined role on this team and based on his play he should fill it effectively.  To those who are going to bet against Frye’s success in Orlando I ask you, how do you bet a guy that had this happen to him and then came back to play a pivotal part in the success of the surprise team of the season, the Phoenix Suns? That’s the kind of guy you want on your team, and now you have him Orlando.