It has been a struggle for Dwight Howard through the first 20 games of the 2009-10 NBA season, but when your team is 16-4, you don’t have a lot to complain about.
Howard is still putting up very good numbers. He’s averaging 18.1 points per game, 12.1 rebounds per game and 1.8 blocks per game, but these numbers are down from last season when Howard finished fourth in MVP voting and was named the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Howard’s field goal percentage is actually up from last year, jumping to 64.6% from 57.2%, but his shots are down. Last season, Howard attempted a career high 12.4 shots per game, but so far this season, he is taking just 9.5 shots per game. Last year, Howard was grabbing 13.8 rebounds per game (which was actually down from his ’07-08 average of 14.2) and this season, he grabbing just 12.1 rebounds per game. The most surprising stat for Howard may be his blocks. Howard was averaging 2.9 blocks per game last year and finished with 231 for the year. This season, he has just 36 blocks through 20 games (an average of 1.8 blocks per game).
What’s to blame for Howard’s drop-off?
Let’s start with the obvious – foul trouble.
Howard is committing 3.9 fouls per game when he committed just 3.4 fouls per game last season.
In games where Dwight Howard has either fouled out or picked up five fouls, he is averaging just 15.3 points per game, 9.5 rebounds per game, and 1.3 blocks per game in just 29.8 minutes per game. In those games, Howard is shooting 75.7%, much higher than his normal field goal percentage, but Howard is only able to attempt 6.2 shots per game.
Now, let’s take a look at Howard’s numbers when he picks up three fouls or less in a game. It has happened nine times this season. He plays 36 minutes per game, and scores 22 points per game on 67.2% shooting from the field. Howard averages 11.9 attempts per game. He also grabs 14.6 rebounds per game and blocks 2.4 shots per game.
Howard has had both up and down games when he has received 4 fouls. It really depends on the timing. When he picks up, 3 first half fouls, his minutes are limited and his performance is worse.
Obviously, if Howard commits less fouls, he is going to play more minutes and is going to be much more productive.
Howard’s lack of production cannot completely be blamed on minutes played or fouls received. Last season, Howard’s minutes dropped from 37.7 per game during the 2007-08 season to 35.7 per game in 2008-09 yet Howard was still able to improve his numbers in field goal attempts and blocks while seeing barely any drop-off in scoring (20.7 points per game to 20.6 points per game). The Magic were also involved in a lot more blowouts last season, which can explain his very slight drop in scoring from the prior year. This year the Magic have only been involved in six games that would be classified as blowouts and they were on the receiving end of two of them.
Howard’s block percentage has fallen from 5.9% back to 4.2% (which was his averaged in the ’06-07 season and in the ’07-08 season).
Dwight Howard needs the ball more. Howard’s 9.5 attempts per game are not nearly enough for a player of his caliber.
I don’t think the issues with Howard’s attempts and scoring have been with getting Howard the ball, although the assists numbers are down. 47% of Howard’s baskets are being assisted on compared to 51% last season, but Howard is getting 6% of his baskets off of tips, compared to just 3% last season. I think the issues are where Howard gets the ball and what he does with it once he gets it.
As we all know, Howard is not much of a shooter. When Howard is at his best, he is receiving the ball within four or five feet of the basket. That hasn’t been happening enough this season. Too often, Howard has been getting the ball outside of his comfort zone and has tried to put the ball on the floor, resulting in a turnover. In fact, his turnover percentage is at 18.6%, the highest it has been since the 2006-07 season and the second highest of his career. Howard is shooting just 16.7% on jump shots – he shot 32.5% last season, but a lot of that has to do with the types of longer shots he is taking. A few times, Howard has tried to hit a jumper or bank one in and the results have not been good.
One positive that you can look at with Dwight’s lack of scoring is that he is passing the ball better out of the double team. Howard’s assist percentage is now up to 8.1%. He is passing the ball much better out of double teams.
Another positive is that Howard is drawing more fouls. His free throw percentage has stayed relatively the same but he is drawing fouls 32.3% of the time as opposed to 27.6% of the time last season.
Not only is Howard turning the ball over, he is getting more shots blocked. Last year, just 7% of Howard’s inside shots were blocked and now 11% of them are being blocked.
That’s important because, as Magic Head Coach Stan Van Gundy pointed out, Howard’s defense is still the key to Orlando’s success. With Howard out of the lineup, Orlando’s defensive rating is 114.2. When Howard, is in the lineup, their rating is 99.9. Opposing teams shoot an eFG% of 52% with Howard off of the court, but just 46.4% when he plays. The Magic are obviously a much better rebounding team when Howard plays – they’re defensive rebounding percentage is 77.4% when Howard plays and 69.3% when he does not.
Yes, it is true that the Magic have struggled mightily with the pick-and-roll, but as Eddy Rivera pointed out, this is not the fault of Dwight Howard and the other Magic big men, but the blame should be placed on Orlando’s wing defenders.
Howard has been called for some very ticky-tack fouls and has been frustrated easily. He has shown a bit of a self-control problem, picking up three technical fouls so far this season.
As of late though, Howard has calmed down and his numbers have been much better. Take a look at his last four games.
He averaged 37 minutes per game, scored 22.5 points per game, grabbed 15.8 rebounds per game and blocked 2.5 shots per game. He only picked up 2.8 fouls per game during this stretch. Howard was able to stay calm and regroup even when he picked up questionable fouls. The Magic also did a better job of getting Howard the ball deeper in the paint. This was probably most noticeable in Orlando’s win over the New York Knicks last Wednesday.
I did not include his game against the Warriors, because he got into foul trouble playing in the frantic up-tempo style. I won’t completely place the blame on him for his foul trouble because this was a strangely played and officiated game. Howard was one of five players in the game who picked up five fouls (and three of them were guards).
The return of Orlando’s stretch Fours, especially Rashard Lewis, has obviously helped Howard and Orlando’s offense. When Orlando is forced to play offense with a more traditional Power Forward (3 out/2 in sets), it is much easier for the defense to collapse on Howard and much more difficult for Howard to kick the ball out for an open shot. With Lewis (or Ryan Anderson) in the lineup, if the defense does account for all of the shooters, Howard will have a one-on-one matchup and if they don’t, Howard should be able to find an open man (or the shooters will find an open man as they swing the ball around).
Howard is still just 23 years old (but he will be 24 on Tuesday) and is still maturing. He is adjusting to the way the officials have called his games and is playing better and better while picking up less fouls. He is getting deeper into the paint and his teammates are getting the ball when he is in position to get a better look at the basket. As the season goes on, I’d expect Howard’s play to continue to improve and his numbers to go up.
(Andrew Melnick is Howard the Dunk’s lead blogger and a contributor at NFL Mocks Subscribe to his RSS feed and add him on Twitter to follow him daily.)