Statistical models think the Orlando Magic could be the team to make the leap

The Orlando Magic expect to return to the playoffs this season. Some are beginning to whisper this could be a team ready to make a leap.

Every year, there is a team that surprises. A team that truly does something nobody expected. Whether it is big or small, the league always finds a way to get its next breakout star and find a team to shoot up the standings in unexpected ways.

The Milwaukee Bucks seemed inevitable to make a leap with Giannis Antetokounmpo. But the chances of them racing to the best record in the league with Antetokounmpo sweeping up the MVP award so quickly seemed far fetched. That was completely unpredictable.

There are always unpredictable parts to the bottom of the standings too. The Brooklyn Nets were always a trendy pick to make the playoffs and burst through last year.

The LA Clippers also had their backers, surviving a series of trades and playing a scrappy style to secure their playoff spot. The Sacramento Kings became a League Pass favorite but fell short of the postseason.

The Orlando Magic were a true surprise. Before the season began, nobody had them making the playoffs.

The question for this year is what comes next?

With a playoff berth behind them, much the same roster back, an identity carved out and young players poised to improve, the expectations for the Magic are racing ahead. They are expected to make the playoffs as a baseline.

Orlando is no longer a surprise team. The Magic are an expected playoff team.

Beyond that?

There are at least a few people willing to whisper that Orlando could be that breakout team this year. A team like the Indiana Pacers in 2018 who found a star in Victor Oladipo and zoomed into the periphery of contention — pushing the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first round.

There are at least whispers of it.

But the loudest bullhorn undoubtedly goes to the statistical models as they try to figure out what the 2020 season will look like.

They all seem to like the Magic. The last thing they all seem to suggest about the Magic is worry about even getting back to the playoffs. The question is just how good this Magic team can be.

The biggest voice in the room comes from Kevin Pelton and ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric. Their simulation of the NBA season has the Magic finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference at 46.5 wins and a 93 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The statistics obviously favor the Magic’s youth and their potential to get better. But other indicators seem to suggest the team will play well. Specifically Orlando’s defense and the sustainability of that strategy.

Orlando finished eighth in the league in defensive rating last year and 10th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage. The team was actually seventh in both 3-point field goal attempts allowed and 3-point field goals made against.

In a league where so many teams are hoisting 3-pointers, being able to limit those attempts and force minutes has some power. That is a big key to Steve Clifford’s defensive strategy.

To be sure, for the Magic to get back to the playoffs or make this kind of a leap, it will take another stellar year defensively. That was the key to everything the Magic did and a huge part of their identity and building philosophy.

It would be one thing if this was a prediction that was all alone. But there are plenty of other statistical models that favor the Magic.

FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO model has the Magic winning 42 games with a 76 percent chance to make the playoffs. The 42 wins would put them eighth in the East. But the 76 percent chance to make the Playoffs is better than two teams ahead of them in the projection.

It all seems to add up that the Magic are expected to make another playoff push. And frankly, make it comfortably. Even as one of the lower seeds.

It feels like it would take a very bad luck season to keep the team out. Even with the Magic’s relatively small margin for error.

Orlando has come a long way within a year. Expectations for this team have changed dramatically.

Last year, seemingly reaching 30 wins would be considered something of a success.

Orlando Magic

Orlando needed some time to coalesce around an identity. But they found it and made a push for the playoffs, finishing a surprising 42-40 and completing the largest single-season increase in wins in the NBA last year at 17 wins.

Bringing back the same team will help the Magic answer some early season questions. Orlando will know who it is and have an understanding of how they have to play to make it back to the playoff level. That is comforting in some ways.

The question now is what comes next? What do the Magic do to build off the success of the 2019 season? What kind of season can they truly have?

The answer to those questions in the short term was to rely on internal development and continuity.

But finding a positive answer is still far from certain. No statistical model will change that.

There is a current of fans who fear getting stuck in the so-called “treadmill of mediocrity.” Nobody wants a team good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to make noise when they get there.

Those concerns remain valid. Fretting about it seems a bit premature though. For now, the Magic’s goal should be to replicate last year’s results and try to improve upon them.

That has created a new set of expectations. The playoffs are the only way this season could even remotely be considered a success. Failing to make the postseason would be a major step back. Especially considering how much capital the Magic spent to retain last year’s teams.

But ultimately the hope is the team can take the next step whatever that looks like.

It is still unclear what kind of a jump this team can make. The safe prediction is they will remain a low-40s team and one fighting for a spot in the playoffs still. The moderately optimistic prediction is they will fight for the sixth seed.

But what should be among those higher-range predictions is at least the thought this could be the team that takes that leap. There seems plenty of evidence to believe they can.