The Orlando Magic should not trade Nikola Vucevic… yet
Nikola Vucevic has been rumored to be on the trading block for some time. But the trade market’s recent history indicates that getting a good return for will be very difficult.
The days of offense-first big men dominating the paint on NBA courts is all but over.
Skilled post players, like Enes Kanter, Zach Randolph and Greg Monroe, have been relegated to bench roles. Others of their ilk, like Brook Lopez and Jahlil Okafor, have proved difficult to trade.
Even big men who play great defense, like Taj Gibson and Nerlens Noel, netted their teams disappointing returns at the trade deadline, despite filling roles valued in the modern league.
Teams want athletic, versatile players who can stretch the floor. This even goes at center. Earth-bound post players are going away.
In the NBA Finals, LeBron James and Kevin Durant play center for significant stretches. Big men that are perceived to be limited on either side of the court – whether it is a low-post player who cannot shoot threes or a shot-blocker who cannot score – do not have as much value as they used to.
There is now a glut of role-playing centers who can be signed for cheap. General managers and league executives simply are not willing to part with major assets to acquire these kinds of players.
Although Nikola Vucevic improved his defense and further explored his offensive skill set last year, the demand for him simply does not exist in the trade market. At least not to the degree that would make trading him worthwhile.
He is a good offensive player with a wide range of skills. For a team like the Orlando Magic with no clear direction at point guard, his playmaking is even more valuable.
He still is not much of a three-point shooter, but his stretching the floor out to 19 feet is also important for a team whose primary scorers need to attack the basket.
The point is, he has value for his current team.
From a pure basketball perspective, Vucevic’s trade value is at its nadir while his value to the Magic is stable.
Vucevic still has two years and $25 million left on his team-friendly contract. He will quickly become a lower-risk target for a team looking to temporarily bolster its rebounding and interior offense thanks to this deal.
In any trade, selling low on an asset is rarely prudent, especially when its value could soon trend upwards.
As much as the importance of offense-first big men has diminished, he still has a place in the league. At least one or two teams are liable to jump at the chance to trade for a contributor on a team-friendly contract. But they are not going to give the house for a player like Vucevic.
This is why there is no reason to force the issue and trade Vucevic sooner than later.
Vucevic is valuable to the Magic right now and will be more valuable to other teams later. Whatever his return is – and the Magic should and likely will seek draft picks – will be more valuable to the Magic later.