The Orlando Magic are still muddling around at about .500 since December began. Their numbers suggest they are defying the odds. And no one can figure it out.
The Orlando Magic are one of the most mystifying teams in the league.
One game they are up, the next they are down. Then they are up again. They play well one week and look like a Playoff team. The next, they look lifeless as if they barely belong in the league.
This has been the story all year long. And, nearing the season’s midpoint, it is quickly becoming part of the team’s identity. At 16-20, the Magic are still 1.5 games out of the Playoffs, but there is still plenty of skepticism about that Playoff bid.
And it is completely warranted.
If statistics and analytics are to be believed, the Magic are overperforming their play so far.
According to Basketball-Reference’s Pythagorean Wins formula, the Magic should be 13-23 this season. This is based on the strength of their schedule and the results in those games, using offensive and defensive rating as an indicator of the team’s strength. Orlando is playing three games better than their statistics suggest.
Indeed, net rating — the different between a team’s offensive rating and defensive rating — is typically a better indicator of a team’s overall health in the long term of a season than anything else. Orlando struggles mightily there. The team has a -4.5 net rating, 25th in the league.
By this measurement, Orlando is one of the 10 worst teams in the league and hovering near the bottom five. The teams similar to them in net rating are the 10-24 Dallas Mavericks and the 14-19 Sacramento Kings.
The stats do not favor the Magic. Certainly, the numerous blowout losses weigh down the Magic’s overall offensive and defensive ratings. But that is part of the team’s profile too. There is no hiding from the team’s struggles. And these numbers clearly show the Magic have some fundamental problems.
Or maybe they are a mirage. The only thing that matters at the end of the day is that record. And Orlando is right there fighting for the team’s playoff life.