Elfrid Payton has been a favorite project all year, both the difference maker and punching bag. It is clear he can post numbers. Getting nuance is the trick
The look on Elfrid Payton’s face following the Orlando Magic’s 118-102 loss to the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday was not one anyone would associate with someone who had just completed a triple double, the third of his career.
It was the face of someone who was frustrated, watching the end of another loss. Another game where he was more or less powerless to do much of anything. Even when he was playing at his best.
The Magic went down big in the first quarter when Payton stepped onto the court. When he did get on the floor he, for the first time in a while and certainly since he sprained his elbow, pushed the pace and attack the paint. His triple double of 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists all came virtually in the paint. He did not hit a field goal outside the paint. But it was his assist total that was most telling.
Payton had 10 assists, helping force the issue and awaken a stagnant Magic offense simply by being able to attack and getting into the offense with some pace. He was in complete control throughout the game.
This was the Elfrid Payton the Magic wanted to see on offense. Perhaps not the Payton they have seen throughout the whole season.
When Payton is tuned in this Magic team seems to take on a new identity.
“He is one of the most important players here,” Mario Hezonja said earlier this month. “As always, he is patient. He sees everything. If four of us are going too fast, he is slowing down to not go over fast. He’s really useful and finding everyone.”
Payton’s season has been a strange one to say the least. He has averaged 10.7 points per game on a 45.3 percent effective field goal percentage, both up from last year. He has posted 6.1 assists per game, slightly down from last year. By those measures Payton has been about the same.
Payton though has struggled by other measures. His box plus-minus went down according to Basketball-Reference from -0.7 to -1.5. That means this year, Payton estimates to play 1.5 points per 100 possessions worse than the average player. His defensive box plus-minus went from 0.8 to -0.4.
These numbers are concerning when evaluating Payton’s season. This was a young player viewed as part of the Magic’s core and someone who would grow. Instead he hit a road block this year — certainly slowed by an ankle injury in December and now the elbow injury Payton is slowly making his way back from.
When Payton is at his best though, the Magic can be very very good.
“The way the game is played today, it is the most important position,” coach Scott Skiles said of his point guard earlier this month. “If you don’t have quality play there, it is very difficult to win. He’s learning. With him, it’s just a matter of his mental focus and energy. When he has those things, he usually has a good game because he can effect a game in a bunch of different ways.”
He has had 10 assists or more in 11 games this year. The Magic have gone 6-5 in those games. Payton’s effectiveness is not simply about wracking up assists or putting up numbers. It is something more subtle.
That might be where Payton has had the most education this season. Trying to get down those subtleties of leading a winning team.
His ability to get into the offense quickly, his energy coming around a screen and his ability to get into the paint are usually good omens for wha the Magic are doing offensively. If he is holding onto the ball too long or slowly walking the ball up, the Magic are not likely playing confidently offensively.
Payton playing well on his own is no guarantee for the Magic. His defense has still be suspect as those defensive numbers before show. And the Magic need multiple players playing well to win. That has been the formula all year though. The margin for error for this team has remained small throughout the year.
For Payton, the rest of this season is about rediscovering that rhythm and continuing to manage the team successfully. Recapturing the spark and confidence from the end of his rookie season would not be bad.
“As the year is going on, I just try to continue to get better,” Payton said earlier this month before his elbow injury. “Just continue to try to get into the paint as much as I can. Get guys open. They are doing a good job knocking down shots. I am doing the easy job.”
Next: OMD Podcast: What's left for the Orlando Magic this season?
Whether he can do that more effectively the rest of this season and beyond is the question facing Payton now. And how he will avoid more frustrating triple double nights like Wednesday.