The Nikola Vucevic on/off contradiction

The numbers suggest the Orlando Magic are playing worse with Nikola Vucevic on the court. The eye test suggests otherwise and reconciling them is difficult.

Nikola Vucevic continues to be something of a conundrum statistically.

Vucevic clearly makes a big difference offensively. There are few centers who have the ability to get their own shot in the post and step out and hit jumpers. Putting centers in the pick and roll and having the option to both roll and pop is extremely powerful.

His defense has improved subjectively. He is doing a better job challenging shots at the rim and getting into position. Vucevic is playing 30.0 minutes per game entering Monday, so is playing a substantial part of the game. He is an important part of the team.

Yet, numbers show the Magic and their best players perform better with Vucevic off the floor rather than on it.

Entering Monday’s game, the Magic are better on the offensive end than their average, posting a 103.9 offensive rating with Vucevic on the floor. However, the defense suffers, giving up a 105.4 defensive rating with him on the floor. The Magic, therefore, post a -1.5 net rating.

So despite playing its third best offense in the minutes Vucevic is on the floor, the Magic have their third worst net rating with Vucevic on the floor.

It presents quite a conundrum. And reviewing the numbers a bit deeper provides only more confusion.

Every key Magic player has a better net rating (net points per 100 possessions) with Vucevic off the floor rather than on:

These numbers suggest the Magic’s key players are playing worse with Vucevic on the floor.

The analysis from Hoops Excursion from last week (the numbers have not changed much) is pretty apt:

"Vucevic appears to be bringing down the rest of the team, which is an issue for a Magic organization that signed Vucevic to a 4 year $53 million contract extension last year that runs through the 2018-19 season. They have no apparent long term solution at center (no offense to Channing Frye, Jason Smith, Andrew Nicholson and Dewayne Dedmon) so Rob Hennigan and the rest of the Magic front office may have to begin searching for a better big man to fit with the rest of their young core."

Of course, that is what it appears. Numbers can be a bit deceiving.

What the eye test would say is Vucevic is a stabilizing force for the Magic. He leads the team in scoring with 16.5 points per game. And that number has been steadily climbing of late.

The Magic are significantly better offensively with him on the floor — 104.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court compared to 96.7 with him off. The Magic offense essentially goes dead when Vucevic is off the floor.

Defense could still use some work, but there really is no explanation for this discrepancy statistically. The Magic seem better with Vucevic on the floor, the numbers disagree.

This is not to say that there is not a problem. Vucevic has improved defensively subjectively. And his defensive numbers are down. These lineup statistics do not reflect that at the moment.

Still, there is no doubt Vucevic can continue to improve in this area.

How do we match what we see with our eyes to what the numbers say?

Two-man lineups are a bit risky to go on. There are three other players pushing and pulling the numbers too. The problem could be a similar player these units are all playing with too.

For example, the Magic’s starting lineup is their most-used lineup and has a +11.3 net rating while the team’s original starting lineup is the second most-used lineup and has a -11.3 net rating. There is still some data to build up here.

The best solution might be just to keep playing and find a way to make it all work.

The unit Vucevic is playing most with — 220 total minutes so far — is very successful and a key reason for the team’s jump up in the standings so far. Three of the four lineups Vucevic is in that have played the most minutes have a positive net rating.

It would seem something else is at work here.

Next: Trends or Mirages for the Orlando Magic at the quarter pole

If Vucevic keeps playing at the level he has recently, these numbers should see themselves reverse.