Scott Skiles hints at another rotation change

With his team struggling the last four or so games, Scott Skiles hinted he is considering a lineup change if things do not change for the team.

Following the Orlando Magic’s 111-76 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night, Scott Skiles was at something of a loss to explain why his team came out with so little energy.

More than that though, he was at a continued loss for his team’s defensive slippage in the last four games. Orlando has now lost three of its last four games, and Skiles noted that one win was likely more about what the Denver Nuggets did wrong than what his team did right.

And so following a 35-point loss, Skiles said another lineup change might be coming down the pike.

“We have to consider it,” Skiles said. “I’m not going to say we are going to do it. We have to consider it. Our formula has been getting four, five, six, seven guys playing well on a night. That’s what we have to do. We’re going on four games in a row where it hasn’t happened. We’ve won one. At some point, you have to look at all the options.”

The Magic have been demonstrably better since changing their lineup after a Nov. 23 loss to the Cavaliers. Orlando has gone 6-3 in those games with a 100.4 offensive rating and a 97.0 defensive rating. Both those are better than the team’s season averages.

However, in the last four games, the Magic have been incredibly inconsistent on both ends of the floor — given to long periods where shots do not fall and long periods where the defense allows too much penetration.

The team has an abysmal offensive rating of 92.9 points per 100 possessions and 100.9 in the small sample size of the last four games. Considering it includes the Nuggets game (83.0 offensive rating) and the Cavaliers game (80.2 offensive rating), those are some pretty significant outliers dragging things down. The defensive number while not terrible, is above the team’s season average of 99.3 points allowed per 100 possessions.

It may be too soon to start really looking at lineup changes in any serious manner. The team is going through a small downturn of late. The concern is more to guard against the team allowing it to continue.

If that happens a lineup change might occur.

What lineup change would happen?

It has been easy to point to Channing Frye.

Since moving into the starting lineup, he has not produced much individually — 3.2 points per game and 37.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The team’s net rating with him on the floor is +5.9 points per 100 possession, best of all the starters though.

The last four games have been more of a struggle, as it has for everyone on the team. The team’s offensive rating with Frye on the floor is 91.1. If Frye is in to help spread the floor, it would seem he is not accomplishing that goal.

Then again, a reason Frye is playing is because he is relatively solid defensively and will be in the right spots in the Magic’s defensive scheme. Even in this down stretch for the Magic, they have an above-average defensive rating with Frye on the floor at 96.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.

Andrew Nicholson has flourished in the new rotation too. In the past nine games, he has averaged 9.3 points per game in the last nine games and the team has a +6.8 net rating with him on the floor.

Nicholson is also the only player with a positive net rating during this four-game downturn of late. He is playing really well.

Inserting him into the lineup is not a simple thing though.

The lineup of Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson and Nikola Vucevic has played 21 minutes together posting an 86.1 offensive rating and a 106.0 defensive rating. That is not good at all, albeit in that extremely small sample size.

The other suggestion often bandied about is placing Victor Oladipo back in the starting lineup for Evan Fournier.

It is true Fournier has struggled a lot of late — 9.3 points per game on 52.3 percent effective field goal percentage largely thanks to 3-point shooting and a -2.3 net rating including a 101.8 defensive rating while he is on the floor since the lineup change nine games ago. Meanwhile Oladipo has flourished with 15.6 points per game, a 43.0 percent effective field goal percentage and a +0.4 net rating.

Inserting Oladipo into the current lineup for Fournier has produced good results so far this year. In 21 minutes, the lineup of Payton, Oladipo, Harris, Frye and Vucevic has an offensive rating of 105.1 and a defensive rating of 80.4. The Magic have turned to it in some situations this year if Fournier gets into foul trouble.

And if we want to bring it all together, the lineup of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson and Nikola Vucevic has played a miniscule 35 minutes together and posted a 112.5 offensive rating and 94.1 defensive rating. That is a lineup that has worked in limited minutes this season.

Next: Orlando Magic let bad habits build in loss to Cavaliers

This is all conjecture at this point. These are still small sample sizes for the Magic and for Skiles to consider.

If the team cannot right the ship in any significant way — particularly on the defensive end — the team will have to consider a lineup change. There are options that have worked in limited moments that might be wroth exploring.

The team is not quite there yet to pull the trigger on a change.