What are realistic expectations for the Orlando Magic in 2016?
The team and the fans are already thinking Playoffs for the Orlando Magic. A turnaround of that proportions is rare. Success may need a fallback plan.
The chaos of the offseason is calming down.
Just about everyone at Orlando Magic Daily has provided their offseason grades and just about all of us felt the Magic did a good job. If not a good job, at least a decent job, leaving some needs unfilled but other key needs filled.
It is not a runaway success by any means though.
A lot of questions remain about the Magic and how the team proceeds from here. After all, this group won 25 games last year and the biggest offseason addition was C.J. Watson — a player coming off a career year averaging 10.0 points per game and accumulating 4.0 win shares. Watson is not going to change a team overnight.
Yet, it feels like the Magic need an overnight change to go from 25 wins to Playoff participant. That is going to take Tobias Harris, Victor Oladipo and Nikola Vucevic taking the step up from “young player” to “stardom.” It is going to take Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon defining themselves and their roles more clearly.
A lot has to happen for the Magic to get to those lofty Playoff expectations.
Talking to fans, reading comments and all that shows a fan base that is really hungry for a Playoff team and wants to believe the postseason is on its way. It has to happen soon right?
In looking at three teams that are rebuilding, Matt Moore of CBS Sports seemed to think the Magic are the closest to making “the leap,” and they are making the moves to throw the rebuild into the deep end and see if it can swim.
"However, there’s only two real ways this season can go for Orlando: The young core starts to develop, Hezonja looks like a legit star, the team comes together and they at least vault into the B-version of the 2009 Thunder — which is to say not a good team, but you could see where they’re going. Or, the glass-half-empty result, they wind up being mediocre again, and instead of a young, building team, they’re just a mediocre team with young talent that isn’t going anywhere."
That about perfectly describes the stakes of the 2016 season.
Maybe not that dire. The Magic’s 2015 season was a disaster. While some saw the talk about making the Playoffs and took that as the Magic’s actual goal for the season, it really was about developing an identity and giving the rebuild a shape and a culture.
Instead the team just remained drifting and cratering as individual players tried to get better individually. There is no making the Playoffs with this group if they cannot find a way to do it together and work beyond the box score (see the Zach Lowe article on Tobias Harris).
That is a tough thing for a young team to learn. It is usually the last thing to learn — what Bill Simmons always called “The Secret.”
So how much of the Secret has the team learned? How much can it learn in one offseason after 68 wins in three seasons?
We cannot answer that question at all. There is nothing to tell us what this will become or how it will come together. Except the last time they tried it failed miserably. That is the baseline.
So to see the team jump from 25 wins to 38 wins is a big jump. That is how many wins Brooklyn had to make the Playoffs last year. Judging by the teams in this year’s Playoff race, that number could hit 40. Scott Skiles‘ plea to have a winning record might (finally) be a requirement to reaching the Playoffs.
What is realistic then?
A 10-win improvement to 35 wins would be a huge step forward. It would not achieve the goal of making the Playoffs in all likelihood, but it gets the team out of the basement. And it gets the team hungry for the next step forward.
For those looking to set a win total, 35 seems reasonable and ambitious enough. The Playoff talk is positive and that should remain the goal, but it is very rare that a team take that 15-plus-win jump. The Bucks did it last year, but it is certainly pretty rare. Especially for a team so young.
This is not to put a damper on the Playoff talk or goals. The Magic should have that as their goal. As a team, they should not expect anything less.
A Playoffs-or-bust mentality though may not be the healthiest thing. There is still a long-term plan to consider and young players to nurture.
Yes, winning is a bigger priority for this Magic team. This young core has to start proving itself and taking steps forward now. They can accomplish that without making the Playoffs though. At least, I think so. If the Playoffs ends up being a 35-win proposition, then yes the Playoffs seem not only realistic but a necessity.
What the expectations for the Magic should be in 2016 will be a little more fluid than simply making the Playoffs or winning more games. They need to begin showing the signs of a winning unit with defined roles so management can go get those final pieces to ensure a Playoff berth in 2017. And maybe it is just more development. Or maybe they have done it already.
The point is right now that things are so hard to predict with this team. With virtually the same young roster, the Magic could easily take that leap up with players improving internally and a new coach or they could stay the same with virtually the same roster.
The idea here is to temper expectations some toward the middle rather than toward either extreme end. This team is somewhere between 25 wins on the low end (hopefully) to 40 wins on the high end. To make the Playoffs, they have to hit that high end and a lot has to go right.
Not everything goes right in a season. Some players always disappoint and some always surprise.
The Magic can have a successful season if they show measured improvement and get 35 wins. Even if it leaves them hungry for even more the following year.
Of course, please prove us wrong and win 50 games. That would not be a bad thing either. This just does not usually happen overnight.