What is Andrew Nicholson’s trade value?
Andrew Nicholson has floundered since a promising rookie year, but might not GMs still value his potential to give the Magic a valuable asset in return?
There are a lot of ways of viewing Andrew Nicholson’s slow, even stunted development. At times, we see the flashes that made him a mid-first round pick. Other times, it is hard to imagine how he is hanging on in the NBA, still clinging to a hope that there is a place for him in the Association.
Nicholson has a diverse skill set. He can stretch the floor and has an effective array of throwback moves around the basket. Offensively, he can fortify a second unit and provide scoring in bunches.
But that brilliance is counteracted by his lack of defensive skills. At times, he just appears undersized, and his lack of athleticism makes it more glaring than it would be in a guy who is longer, more gifted.
But that really does not preclude the possibility of Nicholson still carving an effective NBA career.
In some senses, he is a guy whose value could have ascended to that of a starter, but to think that at this point is only done by the most delusional, or the most optimistic, depending on one’s view.
Nicholson came out of St. Bonaventure as a seasoned NBA-ready prospect. In his first NBA season, he started 28 of 75 appearances while averaging 7.8 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. He shot 52.7 percent from the floor and was showing all the signs of possibly being the power forward of this rebuild.
But the growth stopped.
He regressed in year two, and even more so this past season, his third. His field goal percentage fell roughly 10 percent from his rookie season. He added the 3-point shot, but still only hits it at a 31 percent clip, which is below the “green light” mark of 34 percent to make the shot worthwhile.
Nicholson also has had middling success even making plays on both ends of the court. He sometimes hold the ball too long on the offensive end. And he shies away from making big plays defensively, preferring to play it safe.
Both those flaws limit his upside. Both also could be easily amended with more playing time, more comfort and greater experience.
Nicholson’s best season for win shares came in his rookie year, and it was still just 1.7. The names that populate his list of similar win shares are mostly no names and NBA failures.
That does not bode well.
Chris Singleton (a small forward from Florida State who is all but entirely forgotten now) is one such player, no longer in the league, but had a similar line to Nicholson’s in team contributive value.
The thing is, it is hard to imagine how it got this way. His junior year at St. Bonaventure, he averaged 20.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 46 percent from the floor and playing 33 minutes a game.
That painted the picture of a guy who could thrive at the next level — but count this as one of Magic GM Rob Hennigan’s few whiffs thus far.
It all brings us to the pressing question of his ultimate value. What could Nicholson yield in a trade if Hennigan decided to shop him more extensively? Is he worth nothing more than a second-round pick?
That seems to be the most likely, because though he still has the original upside, he has also played two straight seasons of very sub-par basketball.
The question then becomes whether a second-round pick is worth gambling on, or if the expectation of Nicholson’s potential development outweighs the benefits of snagging a guy in the second.
Beyond that, second round picks are not guaranteed contracts, whereas the Magic are stuck with Nicholson for this entire season should he not be dealt.
That could be another long season of lingering on the pine, wondering when he is going to play, and ultimately just being ineffective on the court. He is not a good passer and does not look to do so much. But couldn’t some of that be his trying too hard to show his value as an NBA player?
When a guy gets few minutes, sometimes he feels compelled to shoot more than he might otherwise in an attempt to rapidly assert his value to his team. And that certainly seems to be the case with Nicholson. He forces looks, using his high release to arch them over bigger defenders, but not often with great results.
His struggles to avoid getting his shot blocked are reminiscent of early Magic power forward Terry Catledge. But so is his way of maneuvering and using craftiness to make up for his stature.
But Terry Catledge was great at up-and-under moves, bullying defenders and collecting himself once blocked to get the score. Nicholson lacks the gumption and strength of “The Catman,” though that comparison at one time seemed both favorable and fair.
The sobering reality, however, is Nicholson came with higher expectations than Catledge did, and he also has a wider array of moves than the Magic’s first starting power forward.
All of it really just renders the picture of a guy who is really not worth a lot.
But there may be a GM who still sees the value in Nicholson as a bench scorer and stretch-4. If a team was willing to part with an early second-round pick, at this point it would have to be considered the best return for a guy who may just never pan out in Orlando.
However, with a new coach, it could be a renewed chance for Nicholson to assert himself as the NBA talent he is capable of being.