The future of Tobias Harris and the Orlando Magic
By sfenech
Tobias Harris’ free agency is quickly approaching this summer and it is still hard for the Magic, or anyone, to get a handle on his value.
After this season, Tobias Harris will be a restricted free agent and will likely draw interest around the league. The fourth-year player has not played a game since January 9 against the Los Angeles Lakers due to an ankle injury (Harris has begun individual shooting drills, but remains unlikely to play tonight in Detroit). Without Harris, the Magic have compiled a 2-3 record, with impressive victories over the Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls.
Despite the fact that Harris is one of Orlando’s better scorers, the team has actually scored the basketball better with Harris off the court. Without Harris, the Magic averaged 105.6 points per game versus their season average of 95 points per contest –102.2 offensive rating the last five games compared to a season average of 99.0 points per 100 possessions).
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Obviously the time without Harris is a small sample size, but it does raise a few questions.
For now, no one is truly certain what position best fits Harris long-term. He has the size to play as a small-ball power forward but is nimble enough to guard certain small forwards on the perimeter.
In a way, Orlando’s slow development toward a type of system and culture has stunted Harris’ ability to show which role fits him the best. It could be argued it is easier for the Magic to fall into a more typical system without having to accommodate Harris’ skillset. That is not to say that Harris’ skills are unenviable, but rather that he needs to be put in the right situation to help a team develop into a consistent winner.
Due to the influx cash streaming into the NBA, the salary cap is set to increase dramatically in the coming years. With a massive projected bump coming in 2016, plenty of teams will have the requisite money to gamble on a skilled 6-foot-9 forward such as Harris.
For that reason, the Magic will be forced to make a difficult decision regarding one of their key young players sooner rather than later. Due to his size and outside shooting ability –Harris is shooting 40.5 percent from behind the arc thus far this season — the Tennessee product will be in high demand.
In his recent article dissecting where the Magic are in their current rebuild, Zach Lowe took some time to touch on Harris. He offered the following
"Harris is a very nice player, and he has worked hard in a contract season on his half-court and transition defense — areas where he had been lazy before. Half the league will have max-level cap space this summer, and some team is coming with a mega-offer for him (hello, Knicks!). Executives around the league are divided on whether Orlando would match a high-end offer sheet, and the Magic are probably divided among themselves."
Lowe reiterates the point that Harris will be a hot commodity this summer, as desperate teams will come knocking with potential max-deals, particularly in a free agent class with so few wing players of Harris’ caliber.
Coming into the season, Harris’ effort and overall effectiveness on defense was certainly a focal point in his continued development. Harris’ diverse offensive repertoire has proven critical in keeping the Magic competitive this season and in that regard, it appears as if it is crucial for Orlando to re-sign Harris this summer (they at least have to consider matching any offer).
If the Magic choose to move forward with Elfrid Payton as the starting point guard, which appears to be the right decision, then having capable shooters at the other positions should be an utmost priority.
While he has plenty of time to progress as a shooter, Payton is currently one of the worst jump shooters in the entire league. Thus far this season, Payton is shooting less than 35 percent on any shots coming from farther than three-feet from the rim. YIKES! While that percentage will hopefully improve, Payton is unlikely to ever develop into even a league-average shooter.
From this point of view, retaining Harris and his ability to shoot the basketball relatively well from the perimeter that much more attractive.
At this point in the rebuild, it is time for the Magic to start producing positive results. In order for that to come to fruition, the franchise cannot afford to let talented-young players escape in free agency for no compensation.
Fortunately, the Magic have the requisite cap space to lock Harris up as well as to add another piece or two in free agency this summer. There is still quite a bit of basketball to be played, but we will soon see exactly how the league values Harris.