It's win and in: Every Orlando Magic postseason scenario entering the final day

The Orlando Magic's mission on the final day of the season against the Milwaukee Bucks is simple.

It is the same one the team has had all week since they sat pretty in third place in the Eastern Conference after last week's win over the Chicago Bulls and the same one they have now on a three-game losing streak after failing to win on this road trip.

Win and in.

Thanks to the Indiana Pacers' loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday, the Orlando Magic still control their destiny to make the Playoff field and earn a top-six seed. All the Magic have to do is win Sunday against the Bucks.

That is the simple explanation for what needs to happen for the Magic. There are a lot of details to fill in after that.

But for all intents and purposes, Sunday is a play-in game for the Magic to reach the Playoffs and avoid the Play-In Tournament. That is how the team has to look at things.

"We just need one win and we're good, I think," Franz Wagner said after Friday's loss. "One more game and just have to focus on that one and get a win. . . It's a pretty cool scenario. We're looking forward to it. It should be a fun game on Sunday. Obviously, it is great to be back home. It's always a little more fun at home."

After a week on the road where the Magic struggled to find their footing and find their defensive identity, a return to the Kia Center will be a welcome sign. The Magic are 28-11 at the Kia Center this season. It has become a difficult place to play for opponents.

With so much on the line, the Magic are happy at least to have the comforts of home. As complicated as things are about to get, things should be simple for them: Win the game and the rest will take care of itself.

Every Orlando Magic Playoff Scenario for the Final Game

If the Orlando Magic Win...

Who they face and what seed they are is not so important right now. The Magic just have to win. If they do not, they will need some help and the odds of them going to the Play-In Tournament increase greatly.

Those are the details that we will fill in here. Where the Magic finish ultimately depends on results in other games. But a win would essentially lock the Magic into the 5-seed in all likelihood.

A loss would likely mean the Magic are going on the road for the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday (or Wednesday if the Philadelphia 76ers land in the 7-seed). That is what is truly on the line Sunday afternoon.

If that chart is hard to read, then we can simplify it in text here:

1. The Orlando Magic finish as the 5-seed if:

Orlando Magic DEFEAT the Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers DEFEAT the Atlanta Hawks

OR

Magic DEFEAT the Bucks AND
Pacers LOSE to the Hawks AND
76ers LOSE to the Nets

(Orlando Magic play Milwaukee Bucks if New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers win;
Magic play Cavs if Cavs lose;
Magic play Knicks if Knicks lose and Cavs win)

It is best to think of the Pacers and their game against the Hawks as the Magic's protection against the Sixers. Orlando lost all three games to Philadelphia this year so they lose any head-to-head tiebreaker with Philadelphia.

However, if the Magic win, they clinch the Southeast Division. In a three-way tiebreaker, the division winner is the first tiebreaker. So the Magic would win any three-way tiebreaker with the Pacers and Sixers.

A win is that important. The Magic would only fall to the 6-seed in this scenario if the Pacers lose and the Sixers win.

2. The Orlando Magic finish as 6-seed if:

Orlando Magic DEFEAT Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers LOSE to Atlanta Hawks AND
Philadelphia 76ers DEFEAT Brooklyn Nets

(Orlando Magic play Cleveland Cavaliers if New York Knicks AND Cavs win;
Magic play Bucks if only one of Knicks OR Cavs win;
Magic play Knicks if Cavs AND Knicks lose)

But winning is the thing. Orlando can rest a bit easier with a victory. Everything is less complicated with a win.

That is easier said than done.

The Magic lost to the Bucks earlier this week at Fiserv Forum with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton out of the lineup. Antetokounmpo will again miss Sunday's game but Middleton should be back in the lineup.

The Milwaukee Bucks need a win to maintain the 2-seed with the New York Knicks catching them and the Cleveland Cavaliers sitting one game behind them. There is a lot on the line.

The Magic's game against the Bucks is the only game in the Eastern Conference (all games Sunday tip off at 1 p.m.) with two teams who are both playing for playoff positioning.

For what it is worth, as of 1:30 p.m., FanDuel had the Magic as five-point favorites in the game.

With how much the Bucks are struggling, how good the Magic are at home and everything that is on the line, the Magic truly feel they have a lot in their hands on Sunday afternoon.

"Our ability to control our own destiny still, understanding how we need to continue to play," coach Jamahl Mosley said after Friday's loss. "One, start the game the right way, Two, take care of the basketball and share the basketball. Three, we have to make sure we get our defensive identity the right way. That is three straight games we have given up 115-plus. That's not who we are. We'll get back to the drawing board in terms of how we need to defend to push this in the right direction."

Things get very messy and very nervy should the Magic lose on Sunday.

Every Orlando Magic Playoff Scenario for the Final Game

If the Orlando Magic lose...

Where the most likely outcome for the Orlando Magic is to land in the 5-seed if they win (six of the eight possible scenarios if they win), the most likely outcome for the Magic if they lose is that they will fall to the 8-seed.

That is because, like the other opponents the Orlando Magic face, the Miami Heat are heavy favorites to beat the Toronto Raptors on Sunday. With a Heat win and a Magic loss, the Heat would win the Southeast Division, making potential tiebreakers with the Magic very messy.

The most likely scenario if the Magic lose on Sunday is to prepare for a road trip for the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday or Wednesday (the game will be on Wednesday if the Sixers finish seventh because of a Philadelphia Flyers game at Wells Fargo Center).

3. The Orlando Magic finish as the 7-seed if:

Orlando Magic LOSE to Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers DEFEAT Atlanta Hawks AND
Miami Heat LOSE to Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers result does not matter
(Magic play Heat in Play-In Tournament)

OR

Magic LOSE to Bucks AND
Pacers LOSE to Hawks AND
76ers DEFEAT Nets AND
Heat DEFEAT Raptors
(Magic play Pacers in Play-In Tournament)

The most likely matchup for the Play-In Tournament is a Magic vs. Heat matchup.

The only way the Magic host the Pacers is if the Pacers lose their game and the Heat win, creating a three-way tie where the Heat win the tiebreaker as division champions, leaving the Magic to beat the Pacers based on head-to-head.

If the Magic are in the Play-In Tournament as the 7-seed, they are most likely to host the Heat.

But it is about an equal chance for the Magic to finish seventh or eighth in the Eastern Conference -- three of the eight possibilities for each. But certainly, it is more likely the Magic fall to eighth with a loss because of who the teams are facing.

4. The Orlando Magic finish as the 8-seed if:

Orlando Magic LOSE to Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers DEFEAT Atlanta Hawks AND
Miami Heat DEFEAT Toronto Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers' Result Does Not Matter
(Orlando Magic play Philadelphia 76ers with Brooklyn Nets win;
play Heat with 76ers win in Play-In Tournament)

OR

Magic LOSE to Bucks AND
Pacers LOSE to Hawks AND
76ers LOSE to Nets AND
Heat DEFEAT Raptors
(Magic play Pacers in Play-In Tournament)

This includes the chaos scenario where all four teams involved in these seeds finish with the same 46-36 record. That is the only way for the Pacers to finish ahead of the Magic in a tiebreaker scenario.

In that chaos scenario, the Heat win the tiebreaker as the Southeast Division champions. The Sixers take sixth with the best head-to-head record among the three remaining teams at 4-2, the Pacers are second in that tiebreaker at 3-3 and the Magic are last at 2-4.

As you can see, there are far more likely scenarios than the chaos scenario where the Magic finish eighth if they lose and have to go on the road for the Play-In Tournament.

The odds are with the way the games lineup is if the Magic lose they fall to eighth and hit the road for their first Play-In opportunity.

Every Orlando Magic Playoff Scenario for the Final Game

Long shots if the Orlando Magic lose...

It is not fully guaranteed however that the Orlando Magic would be eighth if they lose. There are still two more scenarios where the Magic still make the Playoffs proper as a top-six seed even if they lose.

They could even still be the 5-seed with a loss -- they are currently the 5-seed because of their Southeast Division champion tiebreaker, so losses by everyone maintain their place in the standings.

So all is not lost if the Magic lose, even if the path is much more difficult.

5. The Orlando Magic finish as the 5-seed if...

Orlando Magic LOSE to Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers LOSE to Atlanta Hawks AND
Philadelphia 76ers LOSE to Brooklyn Nets AND
Miami Heat LOSE to Toronto Raptors
(Orlando Magic would face Cleveland Cavaliers in first-round)

This is quite simple. If everyone loses, the standings remain as they are and the Magic maintain their spot as the 5-seed.

That would guarantee the Orlando Magic face the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. The two teams split their season series this year and would make for an interesting clash of styles.

This is very unlikely. As mentioned before, all four teams the Magic are fighting with are favored to win their games (including the Magic, for the moment). it is unlikely that they would all lose.

There is one scenario for the Magic to claim the 6-seed despite a loss:

6. The Orlando Magic finish as the 6-seed if...

Orlando Magic LOSE to Milwaukee Bucks AND
Indiana Pacers LOSE to Atlanta Hawks AND
Philadelphia 76ers DEFEAT Brooklyn Nets AND
Miami Heat LOSE to Toronto Raptors
(Orlando Magic would face New York Knicks in the first round)

Again, this is essentially the Magic make the Playoffs as the 6-seed if everybody loses except the Sixers. That would push them down to the 6-seed.

Just like if the Magic win, the Pacers are the Magic's protection from the Sixers. If the Pacers are the lone winner among this group, the Magic lose the tiebreaker to the Sixers and fall to the Play-In Tournament.

All of this is unlikely.

The main thing Magic fans should know heading into the season's final day is that a Magic win means they are in the Playoffs and most likely the 5-seed. If the Magic lose, they are most likely going on the road for their Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday.