With 19 games left, the Orlando Magic are sitting squarely in the 4-seed in the Eastern Conference and control their chances at getting homecourt advantage in the first round. With one of the easier strength of schedules left and a home-heavy finish to the season (we are two weeks away from starting an eight-game homestand), it is officially time to start looking at first-round playoff matchups.
Now, strength of schedule is not always a true indication of future wins, especially in a league where just about every team has the talent to win on any given night.
But in this case, Magic fans can feel pretty confident. The team has won 12 of its last 15 games and is playing with tons of confidence right now. They are riding the longest win streak in the NBA (5 games) and have been taking care of business against inferior competition.
Even though the win over the Washington Wizards took a 21-point comeback, the Magic are continuing to prove their playmaking and defensive intensity will take them places this season (and beyond).
Looking at the bigger picture standings, the Magic enter Thursday's game a half-game up on the New York Knicks in fifth. But only two games separate the Orlando Magic from the 8-seed Indiana Pacers
The standings are extremely tight and there is a lot of work to do to secure the team's playoff position. But it is hard to imagine the Magic falling out of the top eight, even if the team has to go through the 7/8 Play-In Game.
If you want to dream in the other direction, the Orlando Magic are 3.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 3-seed and four full games behind the Milwaukee Bucks for second. The Cavs have been slipping just a little bit at 5-5 in their last 10 games.
It would be a tall task, but I do not think you can fully say the Magic are out of the hunt for the 3 seed.
With the next two games against the Knicks and Pacers, the standings may be a little clearer after this weekend. But as it stands right now the East is going to go down to the wire for seeding.
All playoff opponents are still in play for the Magic. Some are more favorable than others.
Either way, it feels good the Magic can play with just about anyone in the conference and will be a true threat to win a series or two.
Ranking the Orlando Magic's potential Playoff matchups
Best case scenario: Indiana Pacers
Throwing out any of the Play-In teams like the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls, the Indiana Pacers are the best-case first-round series for the Orlando Magic.
I am not saying this to fault the Pacers in any way, I just think the contrasting styles and individual player matchups benefit the Magic in more ways than one. And the team's games this year have born that out as the Magic beat the Pacers twice in Indianapolis earlier this year -- albeit before Pascal Siakam arrived in the Circle City.
The Pacers score the ball at an insane rate. They are second in the NBA with a 120.3 offensive rating, are sixth in assists per game and have one of the best playmaking guards in Tyrese Haliburton. This offense is not one you mess around with.
They proved that too in the In-Season Tournament where Haliburton's shot-making was exceptionally dangerous in single-elimination games. They rose to the occasion to reach the championship game against the Los Angeles Lakers.
On the flip side, the Pacers do start to crack on defense. They are a bottom-five team in defensive rating and have shown all year they really cannot stop anyone. The Pacers' best chance at winning a playoff series is to win games by scoring in the 120s.
That just does not happen in the Playoffs.
The Magic certainly will not be letting that happen.
We all know that the game slows down when the playoffs get here. Games become more deliberate, offense shrinks into the halfcourt, and scores drop to the low 100s and even into the 90s at points.
This type of game favors the Magic. They have guards to throw at Haliburton defensively and the Pacers really do not have anyone who can guard Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner consistently.
The Magic are 2-0 so far versus the Pacers this season with both games relative blowouts. Siakam was not on the Pacers yet for either of those games and he changes things. But this is a matchup Orlando should feel confident about.
Ranking the Orlando Magic's potential Playoff matchups
Decent spot to be: Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks
These three teams are beatable in the playoffs, each for their own reasons. But they are no pushovers and the Orlando Magic would not find it easy going against any of these experienced squads.
Starting with the Cleveland Cavaliers, they have been playing great regular season basketball for the second season in a row. But just as we saw last year, they may look different in the playoffs. The New York Knicks were able to get them uncomfortable and expose their weaknesses in the interior throughout their first-round series last year.
The Magic have the same type of tenacity the Knicks did last year, but they have shown glimpses of the ability to suffocate a team with their defensive intensity. The Cavaliers do not strike the same kind of fear into me as the other top teams in the conference.
Having said that, Cleveland worked Orlando on the second night of a back-to-back in January. The Cavaliers can be suffocating defensively on their own. The biggest impediment for them might be health. And with Donovan Mitchell, they have a go-to and dominant scorer.
For the Philadelphia 76ers, the reason is simple: We do not know what Joel Embiid is going to look like a month from now or even if he will play the rest of this season. They can say the plan is for Embiid to return before the postseason, but we really do not know what that looks like.
If he does return, can he still play big minutes?
That is the thing that is turning the Sixers' season. They could be borderline title contenders with a healthy Embiid. And the Magic would not be able to handle him even with Wendell Carter's best efforts.
Tyrese Maxey could provide some issues for the Magic too. But Orlando's depth and defense in any series that includes a less than 100 percent Embiid is a good bet.
And last in this category, we have the Knicks. Probably the closest to the Magic in terms of physical makeup and tenacity. I really do not think any team in the East wants to play against these two squads. They are mirror images of each other -- with the Knicks having more consistent and experienced offensive options.
The Magic and Knicks have played three rock fights so far this season with the Magic coming out on top for all three. But the Magic have not yet faced the Knicks at full strength after the OG Anunoby trade in December.
Injuries are a big factor here for the Knicks. Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Julius Randle are all battling something and that has led the Knicks to slip in the standings. They are a different team when all three are healthy.
There is no indicator they will not be back for postseason play, but it is tough to know just how ready they will be.
If both teams are fully healthy, this could a true throwback playoff series. Slug fest games, loud home crowds and no way it does not go six or seven games.
Ranking the Orlando Magic's potential Playoff matchups
Not feeling great: Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat
The teams that have been mentioned so far have all been good. But this is where the leap happens. Every team from here on out are real contenders and are real threats to represent the East in the NBA Finals.
The Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic have split in their two games so far and still play two more times in the last week of the season. This likely would not be a first-round matchup the way seeding is shaking out. But these teams could clash in the second round should they both take care of business.
The Milwaukee Bucks, similar to the Indiana Pacers, score the ball as well as anyone in the league. But they have not defended consistently this year. Milwaukee is playing better on that end since Doc Rivers took over. But everyone is unsure what they look like in the Playoffs. The Bucks do not have great individual defenders.
You also cannot type too many sentences about Milwaukee without acknowledging they do have Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, two of the biggest game-wreckers in the league.
This would be a series that would be very delicate for the Magic. One big game from Antetokounmpo or even a Lillard fourth-quarter takeover could swing the series in an instant.
The Magic do have players to throw at these stars defensively, like Jonathan Isaac and Jalen Suggs, but it is tough to write off the championship DNA of the Bucks. Especially considering the Magic's inexperience.
The Miami Heat are the team that will not die. And they are not going away again. No one should count them out considering their history during the last several years -- two Finals in the last four years and an Eastern Conference Finals appearance in three of the last four years.
After a slow start, Miami is 8-2 in its last 10 games and playing some of the best ball in the NBA. The Heat have plenty of guys who are proven it in the playoffs, one of the best coaches in Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler, who you never want to see in April or May.
It is also important to note the Magic just struggle against this Heat team. They are 1-3 against them this year and 3-9 in the last 3 seasons.
This would be a fun rivalry series and would have the state of Florida buzzing, but it is not a good matchup for the Magic.
If the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics do not want to see the Miami Heat in a series, I do not think the Orlando Magic should wish for it either.
Ranking the Orlando Magic's potential Playoff matchups
Worst case scenario: Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics look to be a juggernaut this year and should be everybody’s favorite to come out of the East if not win the title outright. They are first in offensive rating, second in defensive rating and have a net rating of 11.3 points per 100 possessions. This is nearly four full points above the second team, the Oklahoma City Thunder.
They have one of the best and most balanced starting lineups in years, assuming Kristaps Porzingis stays healthy. They play defense, they score and they have game finishers (Tuesday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers notwithstanding).
There is really not much to hate about Boston.
To make it even worse, they are not just a good regular-season team. They are battled tested in playoffs and it does seem like it is time for this group of guys led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to get over the hump.
There are a lot of playoff scars they are eager to put behind them. Every championship team has them.
After some intense games early in the season, the Orlando Magic sparked a bit of a rivalry with the Boston Celtics as part of the In-Season Tournament. There does not seem to be any true animosity between the teams -- Paolo Banchero and Jayson Tatum are notably close and worked out together in the offseason -- but the Magic are the young and hungry team trying to prove themselves.
On paper just about anyone would lean Boston and Vegas would have them as heavy favorites, but when the ball is tossed up people may be a little surprised.
The Magic have always played the Celtics tough. And their win in November was a sign of how feisty the Magic can be.
Orlando has Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who in a perfect world could go shot-for-shot with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. That might be a few years away.
Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner are going to be real pests to any opponent and could provide some real friction for the Celtics. Those players are X-factors in the playoff chase.
The Magic would be able to keep things close, but it is hard to imagine them having the shooting or firepower to beat Boston in seven games. Facing the Celtics in the first round would also mean the Magic had to survive the Play-In Tournament and suggest the team struggled to end the season.
Orlando certainly hopes this is the team's second-round series, as the bracket sets up for now.
Crazier things have happened and if Banchero continues to play at this level, he could be the best player in the series.