The Orlando Magic are at a crossroads.
The team clearly can see its bright future ahead. Paolo Banchero is on track to make the All-Star team, and Franz Wagner is an All-Star quality forward next to him. There are tons of young talent who have gotten better and grown.
The team has climbed this year into the postseason conversation. The Magic have never been below .500. It is a season of clear and measurable progress.
Then again, how the Magic got here and how the Magic move forward feels as uncertain as ever. The Magic have a lot of things to clean up.
The team's 14-5 start to the season is in the rearview mirror. That first quarter of the season helped the team stake a place in the Play-In Tournament and postseason picture. It seems unlikely the team will lose that progress.
But there is still clearly a lot of work to do with the team going just 9-17 in the next 26 games.
The Magic might be where everyone thought they would be in the preseason. But this last quarter of the season revealed deep flaws the Magic will have to address sooner rather than later.
The Magic's success in the first quarter showed everyone what this team is capable of. The season's second quarter has forced the team to reckon with its deficiencies and where it needs to improve.
Undoubtedly, any move the Magic make right now has to consider shooting since the Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the league.
But Orlando is still trying to build the team it wants to be. The team is not likely to make moves to rescue this season or maximize their results for only this season. The Magic are still a young and developing team trying to set itself up for the future.
That means the question as they get closer to the trade deadline is to ask what the ideal player looks like.
If the Magic have Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner locked in as the team's foundations, and they feel comfortable with Jalen Suggs as a vital part of the team's backcourt and defense, then it puts the point guard and center spots in the crosshairs for improvement. Indeed, that seems to be where most fans and observers appear to be looking.
With Markelle Fultz's inconsistent availability this season -- he has played in only 13 games this season and has a litany of injuries throughout his career -- and a lack of size in Cole Anthony and inexperience and poor shooting in Anthony Black, point guard seems to be where the team is targeting for its next major upgrade.
As the Magic enter this trade market, they will think about the ideal vision for the position.
The team's decision to draft Black suggests what the Magic seek. Everyone knows the Magic's obsession with size and length. They have seemingly valued that over everything else at the early stages of their rebuilding phase.
Indeed, the Magic value Fultz's size and ability to defend multiple positions. At 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds, he is difficult to move around, and he uses his size to get steals and be disruptive in passing lanes.
The other thing the Magic value about Fultz is his poise and ability to manage games. He is good at controlling and mixing up the pace of games.
Fultz's absence has had a significant effect on this team. It has pushed Banchero and Wagner into more central roles as point forwards for this team. According to data from Second Spectrum, Banchero leads the team with 76.1 touches per game, with Wagner averaging 59.8 touches per game.
Last year, Fultz led the team with 66.6 touches per game, with Banchero and Wagner at 64.8 and 52.9 touches per game. Fultz is down to 47.0 per game (granting his limited minutes and time on the court).
This says the Magic probably do not need a traditional pound-the-dirt point guard. They want to use Banchero and Wagner as initiators. So they need someone who can play off the ball while still leading the team as the point guard.
They seem to want a bigger guard who can maintain the team's defensive flexibility, a guard who can manage the game and get the team into sets, and then a guard who can help spread the floor and shoot 3-pointers.
Trade Deadline: Orlando Magic seeking proof of concept at point guard
The Target: Malcolm Brogdon
This is why, on this year's trade market, many fans have focused on Portland Trail Blazers veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon. He seems to fit this type and would give the Orlando Magic some stability at the guard spot and a chance to see if this is the kind of guard the Magic need.
Brogdon has had a solid season for the Blazers, even though he probably understands the rebuilding Blazers will trade him before the Feb. 8 deadline.
Brogdon is averaging 15.7 points and 5.3 assists per game. He is shooting 42.2 percent from beyond the arc and is a career 39.1 percent 3-point shooter. He is taking 5.1 3-point attempts per game despite his reputation for taking too many long 2s.
On top of that, Brogdon is hitting 52.9 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. That is probably the most crucial stat the Magic care about when considering their personnel.
The 6-foot-4 guard has built a reputation as a solid defender. The Blazers have a 115.1 defensive rating with Brogdon on the floor, 2.0 points per 100 possessions higher than the team's season average. They have a 110.2 offensive rating with Brogdon on the floor, 2.3 points per 100 possessions better than the team's average.
The Blazers certainly view Brogdon as a good veteran who has provided some stability while willingly staying out of the way for Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and the other Blazers' youngsters the chance to make mistakes. Nobody around the league considers Brogdon contributing to Portland's poor records or statistics.
Brogdon has a robust market, with many teams hunting for him at this year's deadline. The Magic must make a competitive offer to get in on the veteran. And Brogdon has this year and next year at $22.5 million per year.
So the Magic or any team would get a chance to see Brogdon play the rest of this year and next. The Magic would like that since they are testing some theories about what the team wants from the position. That makes him more valuable in this trade market.
Trade Deadline: Orlando Magic seeking proof of concept at point guard
The Offer: Finding a framework
In my conversation with Locked on Blazers' Mike Richman, he said the Portland Trail Blazers are not necessarily just looking for future assets and draft picks. The team is aiming to crystallize the roster sooner and wants a meaningful player in return.
That could make it hard for the Orlando Magic to find a framework for a deal. The players they are looking for are not the players the Magic are looking to give up.
That could change, of course. There is still a week and a half before the deadline and a deadline can make teams lower their demands as the day gets closer.
But there is a robust market for Brogdon, with many teams chasing him. Whoever gets Brogdon at the deadline will have to make a competitive and strong offer.
He pitched the following deal (which I rejected):
Proposed Trade from Mike Richman of Locked on Blazers
This is part of the problem is finding a framework for such a deal.
If the Blazers are not looking for castoffs and expiring contracts -- the Magic have Gary Harris' expiring deal and Markelle Fultz's expiring deal to offer unless the team wants to include Wendell Carter or Jonathan Isaac in a deal (and the market is going to prefer Carter).
There is still a dilemma of how the Magic gets the perfect point guard. Perhaps the team will have to compromise what it looks at in a point guard to get a deal done with the players they are willing to offer.
The Magic are going to consider what they are willing to give up. To get something good, you have to give up something good.
And the Magic are trying to sell off expiring contracts rather than move their current starting center -- who has played very well since returning from right knee tendinitis a few weeks ago.
Trade Deadline: Orlando Magic seeking proof of concept at point guard
A perfect fit that is worth it?
But Malcolm Brogdon is a player who fits a lot of the things the Orlando Magic are looking for at the point guard position, even if he is not the highest-end player the Magic could chase. And even if the Portland Trail Blazers are perhaps not the ideal trade partner since their interests and needs do not align with what the Magic have to offer.
Still, these are the things the Magic are thinking about. Their aim at this deadline is to start filling some long-term needs.
The bigger question for the season's third quarter is whether the Magic feel they have to start resolving those needs immediately or if they can wait until next season. The team's losses are increasing the urgency to find some shooting to boost a lagging offense.
Yet, Orlando still finds itself very much in the playoff race and control of their own destiny -- eventually, the Magic will benefit from an "easier" schedule.
Still, everyone recognizes that the Magic will have to address these needs at some point. Fultz is a free agent this offseason and seems like a good candidate to move on, whether at the trade deadline or in the offseason.
Jake Fischer of Yahoo! Sports seems to think Orlando might wait for the offseason to seek support in the backcourt. There is a focus on upgrading the point guard position.
But those questions need to be asked. The Magic are in the postseason conversation and trying to win games. Or, perhaps better put, winning is a greater priority now than it might have been last year or in previous years of this rebuild.
The question Magic fans are fretting over is how important is whether those moves to upgrade happen this year. And whether the Magic will hold out for the ideal option or push in to make a deal now.
It starts with finding the ideal guard the team is looking for. Or at least a player they feel confident can test some theories and tinker with what is best for their young team.