The NCAA Tournament is here. But for the first time in several years -- maybe even for the first time in a decade -- Orlando Magic fans are not obsessing over brackets and trying to figure out which players they need to see.
A playoff race has changed everything for the Magic. The Draft no longer feels liek the primary way the Magic will add players to their roster.
Plus, on top of this, Orlando has had struggles including Anthony Black and Jett Howard in the rotation.
Black was pushed into the starting lineup early in the season but has since fallen out of the rotation. Still, he has shown signs of his defensive prowess and shooting potential throughout the season. Black is someone the Magic are going to have ascend into the rotation soon.
Howard has played most of his season in the G-League for the Osceola Magic where he has put up solid numbers -- 18.5 points per game, 36.5 percent shoooting from deep and a 56.6 percent effective field goal percentage.
At the G-League level, at least, Howard has been as-advertised as a shooter. The Magic surely want to get him on the floor next year.
As much as the Draft is an opportunity to add new, young players to the fold. The Magic already have a duo of young players that are going to be pushing for more playing time.
It presents one of the biggest challenges for the Magic as they begin to evaluate this draft. The Magic should never pass up an opportunity in the draft, but that draft pick is no longer about simply adding talent. Orlando has to look at how that player fits into the bigger picture.
So much of the Magic's draft prep starts with how they evaluate their own roster.
Since most of us are probably behind in our draft prep and the conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament will pick up this week, marking the end of the college basketball season and that phase of draft prep, it was time to play some catch-up.
I chatted with Locked on NBA Big Board's Richard Stayman to get an introduction to the draft class and talk about how the Magic should approach this year's draft. He breaks down what the Magic need and their season so far and which prospects in the Draft will fit the Magic's eyes as the draft enters this final playing phase.
In this post, we talk about how the way the Magic have developed rookies Anthony Black and Jett Howard this season affect their approach to the draft and what Richard has seen from the Magic's two rookies and how it might differ from his draft prep from last year.
You can check out part one of the interview where we chat more about the highlights of the draft class here.
This interview has been edited for clarity, context and updated stats.
Intro to the 2024 NBA Draft
The G-League Shift
Philip Rossman-Reich, Orlando Magic Daily: The Magic's needs have changed. They aren't drafting to see what talent can do. They want guys with upside. You don't want a guy who is who he is after his rookie year. You don't want that rookie year to be their best year. You want guys to continue to get better.
The Magic aren't necessarily looking for the high-upside guy. They are probably looking for someone who can help contribute to winning. The way the Magic have handled Jett Howard and the fact they have had him in the G-League. How much should that change what the Magic are doing [at the draft]?
Essentially next year, Howard is going to be a rookie. But how much should the fact that they will probably have a player who is essentially a rookie on their roster who fits a lot of the needs we know this team need as a shooting wing.
How much should that affect what the Magic do? Do the Magic look elsewhere because they know they have that rookie shooter in their back pocket?
Richard Stayman, Locked on NBA Big Board: I think this team, the thing we've seen is if you remember that stretch when everyone was down, we did not see much shooting I don't think from the Magic. One shooter is not going to fix it. One shooter doesn't solve anything.
And who knows what happens with Gary Harris?
I don't think you can go, "We have Jett Howard coming, what do we need to worry about?" I think you need to add as much depth in that regard as possible and really have somebody ideally who can just shoot but can do other things after they are blitzed?
Like Duncan Robinson obviously is the most known I think just plain shooter but he is also really good at making reads out of traps. Can they find someone who does that or just simply attacks closeouts and creates a little bit. That's where the challenge is going to be in what they look for in a shooter.
Philip: There are a lot of questions with the Magic's shooting with Gary Harris (now a 37.3 percent 3-point shooter this year) set to hit free agency. Shooting has been the biggest drawback of the Magic's offense, ranking near the bottom of the league in both percentage and attempts per game.
There are some good shooters who have had down years -- Cole Anthony is sitting 31.2 percent and Franz Wagner at 29.2 percent. But there have also been some positive signs with Paolo Banchero jumping to 36.7 percent and Jalen Suggs now better than 40 percent from deep.
One player is obviously not going to fix the Magic's shooting problems. But even internal improvement does not seem to get at it. So how do the Magic get the most of their Jett Howard pick?
I am sure you are following this trend too and I don't know how much it impacts your analysis especially as you are looking at prospects and how prospects can improve, but The Ringer just came out with that article and it builds on this point about how teams are using the G-League more than ever to develop their players.
How much does the prevalence and the use of that tool change how you slot guys? Maybe teams can take a risk on a guy and say we're going to park him in our G-League affiliate for a good chunk of the year and check in on him a year later. Does that change how we shape our big boards or mock drafts now?
Richard: I think it should. The stigma almost of they played in the G-League, they must be doing really poorly, that's always what it's been whether it's warranted or not.
They finally figured it out. For the longest time it's you only go to the G-League because you are doing poorly or you are so out of the rotation you need real run. Now it's we don't have many opportunities for you to run off screens because teams know you are going to do that and it won't help us right now. Go do that in the G-League and get some run.
That's what I think teams are doing. It's not a punishment. That's what it always feels like it has always been labeled as. I think they are using it right. It should be factored into it more instead of a draft-and-stash for example and they lose control over what is being developed. Now they have the first say in what is being brought up.
Philip: It's definitely a tool. Now we see I think a lot of teams not openly acknowledge but very much come in with a development plan of you are going to training camp with us, we're going to keep you under contract, we're not going to defer you a year . . . I think you see a lot of teams enter the season with that plan.
Intro to the 2024 NBA Draft
Other Draft Targets
Philip Rossman-Reich, Orlando Magic Daily: Before we move on, any other players worth monitoring that we haven't mentioned? Dalton Knecht is the big one. I've seen Kevin McCullar from Kansas linked to the Magic before. We talked about Johnny Furphy who has risen a lot. You mentioned Stephon Castle a little bit.
We mentioned a few of these players in the first part of this conversation. But they are worth reviewing before we get Richard's take.
Dalton Knecht has likely played himself out of the Orlando Magic's range. The Tennessee guard is averaging 21.1 points per game and shooting 39.7 percent from three on a robust 6.2 3-point attempts per game. He has had some big games in big spots for the Volunteers.
Johnny Furphy has gotten a lot of attention for Kansas since he joined the starting lineup after the Jayhawks' loss to UCF. He averaged 11.4 points per game and 6.1 rebounds per game in conference play.
His teammate, Kevin McCullar, was always considered the better NBA prospect. The 6-foot-6 fifth-year senior averaged 18.3 points per game and 6.0 rebounds per game this year but is not a great shooter at 33.3 percent this year.
Anyone else Magic fans should specifically be keeping an eye on that we haven't mentioned yet?
Richard Stayman, Locked on NBA Big Board: I'd say there are two players we havne't talked about.
One is a really simple one: Kyle Filipowski. I don't think people really know what his draft stock will be. I'd guess at this point is it might be too high for Orlando. I personally wouldn't take him where he is mocked, which is right around the top 10. I think he is better suited going to the late teens to a team that can play him like Orlando needs him.
The other guy would be Jaylon Tyson out of California. They aren't going to make the NCAA Tournament, don't hold the losing over his head. It's just very inaccurate.
I think the hard work shows in the free throw percentage alone. The jump shooting went from 67 percent with no sample size at Texas, went to then 72 percent with little sample size and now he's at 79.5 at the time of this recording. Hard worker, modern wing, long and athletic. He does a lot.
Philip: Kyle Filipowski is probably the most-known name here coming from Duke. The 7-foot center followed up a solid freshman year with 17.1 points per game, 8.0 rebounds per game and 1.6 blocks per game this year. The Duke name probably has him in front of more eyes than anything else. But Filipowski will be successful if he can find the right fit.
Jaylon Tyson is an interesting story. As Richard recounts (in the podcast), Tyson originally committed to Texas but did not get playing time. He transferred to Texas Tech and faced an untenable situation with the coach before settling at California.
This year for the Golden Bears, he averaged 19.6 points per game and shot 36.0 percent from three.
Intro to the 2024 NBA Draft
The Magic's Rookies - Anthony Black
Philip Rossman-Reich, Orlando Magic Daily: Before I let you go, I know you are very focused on this draft class and everything. But I would be remiss if I didn't ask a little bit about what you have seen from the Magic's rookies.
Anthony Black is someone I think a lot of people had a lot of questions about when the Magic took him. There was: Why did they need another guard? Why did they need another guard who can't shoot?
From what you have seen or what you've looked at with him, what have been your impressions from Anthony Black as a rookie?
Richard Stayman, Locked on NBA Big Board: Super impressive. I figured year one would be tough given he can't really shoot consistently. But he's been a really reliable corner shooter for somebody who has the label of he can't shoot.
Philip: He has come a long way. even from Summer League to now, there is still work to do but he has come so far. He's so much more comfortable as a shooter.
While Black is out of the rotation at the moment, he is shooting 39.1 percent from three this season, a major surprise considering his struggles in college.
Richard: Completely agree. Just even that has been really impressive. The defense, he has been fearless at times.
I think the defense has been really impressive. The ability to make something out of nothing at any given time and realizing I'm on the floor too just because I'm not a shooting threat or may not be the top, go-to scorer doesn't mean I can't find a way to impact the game on offense. He's done a really good job of that finding ways on cuts, feeding off everyone's strengths. His upside is ridiculously high.
Philip: My takeaway has been even when he had to step in and start for Markelle Fultz early in the year, the Magic I think have done a very good job making his role small.
My belief is with rookies especially is to start them off with something simple. Obviously, maybe Paolo [Banchero] is a little different because he is expected to do a lot more. But typically with role players my philosophy is always to give them something really simple to do, give them bumpers like on a bowling alley and stay between these bumpers. Do these really simple things and we'll slowly expand his role out.
From the moment he started those games early in the season. It felt like this is a guy you have to have on the floor. He has to play because his defensive impact is so great. Whatever you are losing shooting-wise, he makes up for with that defensive effort.
That says a lot about a rookie because usually defenses is where rookies really struggle. For this Magic team, with what their defensive philosophy is -- I would argue the reason why Jett Howard isn't playing is because he is still learning how to defend at an NBA level -- Anthony Black has that trust defensively.
We're going to get to meaningful games here, they are going to lean on AB in the playoffs. They are going to push him out there in the playoffs. However many minutes he plays, those 5-10 minutes are going to help them win a playoff game.
Intro to the 2024 NBA Draft
The Magic's Rookies - Jett Howard
Philip Rossman-Reich, Orlando Magic Daily: Obviously, we haven't seen a lot of Jett Howard for the Orlando Magic on the main roster. I don't know if you are following the G-League or not, what have you seen from Jett Howard and what maybe from his draft prep does he still need to get to be a player who can contribute to this Magic team?
Richard Stayman, Locked on NBA Big Board: I haven't seen a ton. My focus on the G-League is more on the Ignite. I have seen some. I caught a couple of games in January.
I think the shot looks good. Everything is really promising in that regard. When he gets to the rim, I feel like he doesn't create it's he came off a screen and had a choice. I think he has done a good job of getting to the rim and finishing when necessary.
The question at this point is can he scale up? None of the habits look terrible. One of the things at Michigan is he was just a ball stopper. I don't think he has been that that much in the G-League. Curious what you think.
Philip: Whenever we ask about Jett Howard, Jamahl Mosley has consistently said the things we want to see him is to get up to speed. They play faster in the G-League.
They are trying to get him up to an NBA pace and they feel like the G-League is faster. You have to make faster reads and play at a more frenetic pace. They think that will help him.
Jamahl said something interesting when the Magic brought him back after their West Coast road trip, we are really impressed with his decision-making.
It sounds like what the Magic are actually trying to see from him is that growth in his decision-making. The Magic's overall philosophy is everyone can do everything. They run Paolo Banchero at point guard a lot. He is on the ball, making these kinds of initiation decisions.
Ultimately, what I think the Magic are looking for is what I call skill versatility as much as positional versatility. They want players who can play multiple roles within an offense. Their offense is very read-based and not set-based.
They have actions to get guys open and get guys the ball in spots they want them to. But it's as much about we're going to set you up on the wing, here comes the pick and roll and here is your decision tree off the pick and roll. We want you to read the defense. We want you to see what the defense is giving you and go from there.
A big thing I think especially for their wings is this ability to make decisions. I think this what the Magic are trying to have Jett experience at a lower level so when he gets with the Magic . . . he will be able to make the right decisions. I think that's the development the team is looking for as much as they are looking for him to be more competitive defensively.
I think the Magic are still trying to groom him -- they need the shooting obviously -- into the kind of player they are full of. Big wings who make decisions as much as attack off cuts and passes.
Richard: Give him a year in Summer League, if he is one of those guys who are edging on too good for Summer League, that's really promising.
Intro to the 2024 NBA Draft
The Rookie Conundrum
Philip Rossman-Reich, Orlando Magic Daily: The Magic have a full roster. They don't have room to add anybody. They have to make some decisions about free agents. They are going to have to find ways to improve the roster. I think we all love this team but we all recognize this is as far as this team can go.
They are going to need to add something externally to help make Paolo [Banchero] and Franz [Wagner]'s life easier. Maybe that is Jett Howard. Maybe he helps a lot. Maybe the Magic aren't about to go make that humongous move.
But it does feel like adding another draft pick, even if you are deferring him another year, especially with the amount of draft picks the Magic have coming down the pike, there's just not enough roster room to support a ton more rookies especially if Jett is going to essentially be a rookie.
I don't think the Magic should ever dismiss the draft. You can only take what's given to you. Anthony Black has been great. I run into a lot of Magic fans who don't quite understand the Anthony Black pick, and I'm just like who else are you taking at that spot who is that much better with what we had evaluated at the time?
You can only take what the draft gives you. If the draft doesn't have exactly what you need, you still have to do your best to pick the best player you can. I think the Magic generally did that. We can be skeptical about some things about AB, but he has still been really good.
To that point, we don't know what the draft is going to hold. Summer League is going to be really important for this Magic team. I do expect Black to be too good for Summer League. I want to see him expand his offensive game in Summer League and I'm really excited to see what he can do with an offseason of work.
That's going to be a big proving ground for Jett Howard. Is Jett Howard ready to take a roster spot? Free agency will happen before that. But the Magic should have some idea before they hit the draft if Jett Howard should be someone they can pencil into the rotation or not.
That's probably going to inform some of their draft day decisions at well whether that is picking a player or making a trade.
Richard Stayman, Locked on NBA Big Board: I think this is going to be a fantastic summer. Moving back out of 2024 for all the reasons you said just makes too much sense.
Next year's draft is just better.
We'll have that conversation at a future date. There is a reason that many scouts are all on the same page. If you have a chance to move out for a middle of this year's pick for end of next year's pick instead, it's hard to say no.
Philip: There are still players in this draft. Every draft is an opportunity. Just because this is a down draft, definitely not a time to sleep. There are solid players. There will be a star that emerges in the NCAA Tournament. There are still really solid players in this draft and guys who can help the Magic.
Just because you are full of young players doesn't mean you skip out on the draft. You can still get quality players even in a "down draft."