The Orlando Magic's Playoff series with the Cleveland Cavaliers has finally arrived.
All the questions everyone has had about this team from the beginning of the season to the nine-game win streak to the injury-filled January to the post-All-Star resurgence to the struggles to end the season will get answered in a best four-out-of-seven series. This is where players get tested and everyone finds out what a team is really about.
After all, this is the measure of a champion. And that is where the Magic ultimately want to go.
First things first, the Magic need to play a Playoff game, let alone win a game or win a series. And this season has been all about trying to gain this experience.
In a lot of ways, the pressure on the Magic this year is diferent than it will be at any time. Orlando is celebrating just being in the Playoffs at this moment. This is their debut and, even now with a chance to win a 4/5 series with a team they split the season series with during the regular season, there is still talk about going through these experiences and gaining experience.
Everyone senses that while this particular team's journey may end with whatever happens in the Playoffs this year, that this is the first of a multiyear run of Playoff appearances. The pressure only increases from here. This season was always about getting there.
That should not change the fact the Magic have a real chance to win. Just because they are happy to be here does not mean they are not eager to advance and do not seen an opportunity to win the series.
This Magic team, which was third entering the final week of the season and flirted with homecourt advantage in the Playoffs as much as they flirted with being relegated to the Play-In, is good enough to win this series.
They established their defensive identity which should translate to the postseason. They have a budding star who can take over games -- if not two.
Orlando has shown itself capable of winning big games and has rarely shrunk from the moment. The Magic long ago stopped doubting themselves and they should provide a tough challenge, at the very least.
There is a lot on the line in this series. And so the simple question is: What are the keys to the series?
The Magic are indeed not just happy to be in the Playoffs. They aim to win the series. And while they will have to get over the inexperience hump, the Magic have every confidence they will be competitive. And all this team needs is a little bit of belief.
In this roundtable for Orlando Magic Daily, we asked our staff members to name one key to the series and then make their picks as the Magic get set to take on the Cavs in their Playoff series. Additional notes and stats will be added by the editor in italics.
OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Philip Rossman-Reich: Breaking the Defense
These two teams are very similar in a lot of ways.
The Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers both have invested in size and defense to constrict the paint and squeeze the life out of their opponents. They have built something really impressive.
The Magic and Cavaliers are both in the top-10 in defensive rating and both in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating -- the Magic have the worst offense in the league among the 20 postseason teams.
And so this series is going to turn on shot creation and who can beat a set defense. That is ultimately what the Playoffs are about because everyone knows what is coming.
This is where I think the Cavs have the ultimate trump card.
The Magic’s guards could play their best defense and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland can still beat them – even though both have struggled this season. A healthy-looking Mitchell may well be this team’s Kryptonite. And we do not yet know how Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner will handle the pressure of a playoff defense.
Donovan Mitchell averaged 26.6 points per game and 27.3 points per game and 7.3 assists per game against the Magic. He has historically been a strong Playoff performer too, averaging 27.8 points per game.
But much like the rest of the Cleveland Cavaliers, he struggled in last year's playoffs averaging only 23.2 points per game and 3.8 turnovers per game as the New York Knicks trapped him and forced the ball repeatedly out of his hands, daring others to beat their strong defense.
Mitchell has been dealing with a knee issue but all indications are that the week off will have him back closer to 100 percent.
Darius Garland is a potential star too. But he struggled in his first playoffs last year with 20.6 points per game. That hit the whole Cavs team like a truck against the New York Knicks last year. Jarrett Allen said the lights were a bit bright for them last year -- playing in Orlando over New York might dim those lights, even if the pressure is the same.
The Cavs have spent their entire season preparing to play this series and these games. Their whole season will be judged on this growth.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were no pushovers offensively. Banchero averaged 22.6 points per game, including a then-career-high 42 points against the Cavaliers in December, and Wagner averaged 19.7 points per game.
Orlando is where Cleveland was last year. Nobody is sure how this young roster will respond to Playoff pressure. That is really what this series is about for Orlando -- a win would be great, but the lessons learned for next year are even better. Banchero and Wagner's ability to beat defenses loading up against them with the Magic's poor 3-point shooting is unclear.
For that reason, I give the edge to the Cavs. In a series of two pretty evenly matched teams, I feel like Mitchell or Garland will steal a game somewhere to tip things in their favor.
Philip Rossman-Reich: Cavs in 6
OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Harrison Brown: Paint Dominance
This series will inevitably be won or lost based on how the Orlando Magic can score around the basket.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have one of the larger frontcourts in the league and both are elite defensively. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have earned top 10 voting for Defensive Player of the Year in the past.
The Magic and Cavs were among the best teams in the league defending the paint. Cleveland was fourth in the league giving up 46.5 points in the paint per game while Orlando was eighth giving up 47.5 points in the paint per game.
Orlando relies heavily on scoring in the paint to succeed. The Magic are eighth in the league, averaging 51.8 points in the paint per game, a number that was slipping after the All-Star Break.
The Cavs despite their size and interior defense with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are not a great rebounding team. They finished 14th in defensive rebound rate at 72.1 percent (despite perceptions of the Magic being a poor rebounding team, they finished second).
The Cavs are just 22nd in offensive rebound rate. The Magic are seventh, and offensive rebounds are one way the Magic make up for their lack of shooting.
Orlando needs to finish in the paint to have success as the team makes the fewest amount of threes per game.
Coach Jamahl Mosley can tweak the way the team initiates offense and looks to score, but this team has consistently relied on scoring around the rim.
The Magic are constructed to punish teams in the lane and the Cavs are built to protect it.
If Orlando can get one of Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen in foul trouble early it will open things up. This young roster, specifically Paolo Banchero, can draw fouls as the Magic shoot the most free throws per game in the NBA.
I will be the optimist and on the shoulders of Banchero I think Orlando can secure their first playoff series win since the Eastern Conference Finals in 2010.
Harrison Brown: Magic in 6
OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Brandon Daniels: Jalen Suggs vs. Donovan Mitchell
How effective will Jalen Suggs and the Orlando Magic's defensive backcourt be in stopping Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland?
That is the X-Factor in a series against two fairly similar rosters.
The Cleveland Cavaliers' biggest edge is in its high-volume scoring duo of Mitchell and Garland. Hot nights by either or the two (or both, for that matter) could be an easy way for this series to get out of hand.
Mitchell has games of 57, 51, 45 and 44 in his postseason career (Garland also added a 32-point performance in last year’s first round). Mitchell, at least, is proven in the Playoffs.
On top of this, the Cavaliers are a more dangerous team from beyond the arc. One thing they tried to do to make life easier for Mitchell and Garland in the Playoffs is to bring in shooters like Max Strus and Georges Niang to give the guards more space to drive.
For a young team in Orlando with no playoff experiences out of their stars, it will be huge for the backcourt to step up defensively to limit a 40-plus point outburst from a guy with ample playoff experience.
With that said, I do not see this going more than six games in favor of Cleveland. Both teams’ defenses cancel each other out as a huge advantage, and in terms of star power, Mitchell’s playoff experience should be enough to carry his squad over Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner in close games.
Brandon Daniels: Cavaliers in 6
OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Spencer Henderson: Star vs. Star
At the end of the day, this first-round series featuring the Orlando Magic and the Cleveland Cavaliers will come down to two questions: Will Paolo Banchero cancel out Donovan Mitchell? And will Franz Wagner cancel out Darius Garland?
If the answer to these questions is yes, then the Magic will win this series in six games. The Magic’s bench has been underrated all year. They are top four in bench points per game right beneath the Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors. The Cavaliers' bench is middle of the pack and sits at 15th in the NBA.
The Magic this year averaged 41.5 points per game off the bench. Teams tend to tighten their rotation in the postseason and that will raise questions.
Will that mean Jonathan Isaac joins the starting lineup? It certainly should mean that he will play more considering his impact on the team defensively.
Will the Magic be able to sustain playing the smaller Cole Anthony or the more immobile Joe Ingles? Losing either of them would gut the Magic's offensive attack that the bench provides over the starters.
Depth is the Magic's advantage. But teams do not rely on their depth as much during the Playoffs.
The Magic’s bench will be the deciding factor in this series unless coach Jamahl Mosely changes it up for the Playoffs and only plays eight guys. If the coaching staff is creative and they allow their role players to get minutes and contribute then the Magic will win the series in six.
Spencer Henderson: Magic in 6
OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Omar Cabrera: 3-Point Shooting
The biggest key against the Cleveland Cavaliers is the shooting during the series.
On the defensive end, it will be holding their shooters in check. The Orlando Magic have to be able to protect the paint and not have their defense run thin. The Magic have to trust their best defenders in Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac and Gary Harris on the perimeter to hold Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland the best they can.
The Cavaliers built early leads in their two wins over the Magic thanks to some hot 3-point shooting. And the start of games is going to be a big factor in this series -- Orlando has lost 11 of its last 13 first quarters and many of the team's worst losses, including to Cleveland, came because Orlando fell behind quickly.
In all, the Cavaliers shot 14 for 34 and 20 for 38 in their two wins over the Magic from deep and they shot 9 for 40 and 10 for 22 in the two losses. That should give a pretty clear picture of what is going to be important in this series.
Although neither of those players are LeBron James, the thought process should be the same Orlando ran in 2009.
On the offensive end, the Magic have to be able to shoot from the perimeter.
The Magic have good shooters in Gary Harris, Joe Ingles, Wendell Carter and Jalen Suggs to name a few. But the Cavs will likely start the series happy to let the Magic shoot and congesting the paint. The Magic have to make them pay to spread the floor and have access to the paint.
The Magic, for their part, had their worst shooting performance from deep (and that is saying something) in their first meeting in Cleveland, going 2 for 23 in the game. The Magic went 11 for 29 in the other defeat. Orlando was 7 for 26 and 14 for 25(!) in the two wins.
If the Magic can do these things I believe the series will go 7 games and trust the Magic defense when it matters most.
Omar Cabrera: Magic in 7
OMD Roundtable: Keys to the Series & Staff Predictions
Patrick Previty: Stepping up to the stage
Last year the lights were admittedly too bright for certain players on the Cleveland Cavaliers. This year, the Orlando Magic face a similar task in being a predominantly inexperienced group in the opening round of the playoffs.
But as long as the learning curve is not so sharp, as long as the shooting from the role players does not dip too drastically on the road and as long as the Magic can rely on Paolo Banchero to continue to lead like he has all season, the Magic should be able to come out on top in this series.
I would give the nod to Orlando in 6 games. But if it goes the distance, I do not know if I can truly envision a scenario where they win a Game 7 on the road.
In the Playoffs, suddenly the ability to close games becomes really important. It is the difference between a 2-2 series and a 3-1 series. And both teams have their share of fun game-winners and clutch moments this year.
The Magic went 21-14 in clutch situations and had a +2.2 net rating in clutch situations. That is anchored mostly by their defense -- a 100.8 defensive rating in clutch situations. Just do not trust Orlando to come from behind late in games (103.0 offensive rating). This team is not going to score.
The Cavs had the same issue with a 20-22 record in clutch situations and a -5.3 net rating and a solid 111.5 defensive rating. That is about what their full-season average is as a top-10 defense. But it does not elevate.
For any team in the NBA that is a tall task. For one of the more inexperienced teams in this year’s playoffs, it may end up being what sends them home. But if they can stay up or tied in the series and if the stage does not make them lose their way, I think the Magic are the better team with a higher ceiling.