How the Orlando Magic stack up with potential Eastern Conference playoff opponents

“The real teams start to play now. As a young team that hasn’t really been there (in a playoff push), we need to embrace that and go there.”

That was Moe Wagner, one of the Orlando Magic's few players older than 25, sounding off on the team's first real playoff push in more than a decade.

He is right -- playoff talk has not been a thing in and around The City Beautiful much, unless you are heading down Church Street to Orlando City Soccer's Inter&Co Stadium.

It has especially been the case in the last few seasons. Not a single player outside of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Issac experienced the short 2020 bubble playoff run (a 4-1 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks). Only Gary Harris and Joe Ingles have Playoff experience outside of them at all.

The Paolo Banchero/Franz Wagner era is just beginning. In just two years, this young squad has vaulted itself into a spot in the postseason with a Coach of the Year candidate in Jamahl Mosley leading the way on the sidelines.

Like Moe said, the real teams start to play now. After April 14, records turn into seeds and a new season begins.

All that matters is who gets the magic number '4' first.

Entering the season's final week, the Orlando Magic are third in the Eastern Conference, tied with the New York Knicks and a half-game ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are one game behind the Milwaukee Bucks for first.

The Magic are in the thick of the Playoff chase. They could face any number of teams as the postseason begins.

and with that, a look at the potential 'real teams' in the Eastern Conference that Orlando could face in the playoffs in a couple of weeks.

How the Orlando Magic stack up with each playoff opponent

Cleveland Cavaliers (5th East)

While the Orlando Magic currently sit third in the Eastern Conference, the Indiana Pacers lurk just 1.5 games behind in sixth place. That, coupled with the Orlando Magic's tough trio of games against the Milwaukee Bucks and Phildelphia 76ers to end the season, could see the Magic slip down to the sixth spot by the end of the year.

There is a lot of shuffling left to happen this season. The Magic sit in third for now, but could easily fall into the 4/5 matchup or all the way down to six by the time things end.

Enter the Cleveland Cavaliers. They have occupied the third spot in the Eastern Conference for much of the season despite star guard Donovan Mitchell being out due to a litany of injuries dating back to the beginning of the calendar year.

This seems like the most likely matchup for the Magic if they fall to the 4/5 matchup. The Cavaliers have struggled lately especially, losing eight of their last 11 games to throw their spot in the standings into disarray.

Orlando has done fairly well matching up against Cleveland without Mitchell in the lineup but struggle to continue with the added All-Star:

Looking specifically at the teams' last matchup with a fully healthy Cavaliers lineup on Jan. 22, the Magic felt the effects of not only a multi-time All-Star in Mitchell (who went for 25 points and 13 assists in 30 minutes), but also the array of three-point shooting all across Cleveland's lineup.

Eight threes from guard Sam Merrill, led the way to 20 deep ones for the Cavs -- compared to 11 for the Magic.

That is right around the Magic's average this year - but that 11.1 threes per game mark ties them for dead last in the NBA in makes. Every single team Orlando will face this postseason will be shooting at a higher clip than them - even if it is just team average.

This is a pitfall that has plagued this young sparkplug offense.

They are a top-five unit in defending the three-point line (fourth, giving up 11.4 makes per game) but have won just four of 14 games where teams have made more than 15 threes in a game, including the loss to the Sacramento Kings in January where Orlando set franchise-record with 25 threes.

This series will come down to which offense will step up to the task of playing above their averages in a seven-game series.

Both teams rely heavily on their top-10 defenses (third for Orlando, seventh for Cleveland in defensive rating). The series may turn on a hot-shooting game like in the Jan. 22 game for the Cavs and the Feb. 22 for the Magic (14 threes on 56 percent from deep) could make either offense tough to stop if it does continue for multiple games.

How the Orlando Magic stack up with each playoff opponent

New York Knicks (4th)

The most likely outcome for the NBA season still feels like it will see the Orlando Magic facing off with the New York Knicks in the 4/5 matchup in the Eastern Conference. There is still a lot to sort out before we get there. But this is what Magic fans have been preparing for.

Looking at just regular season matchups, it has been pretty much all Orlando this year.

In three early season matchups right around the turn of the calendar year, the Magic preyed on New York's offensive inefficiency (with credit going to Orlando's defense just the same) - the Knicks shot 41.9 percent from the field in those three games, a fair amount below their team average of 46.1 percent.

Of course, those three games all had stipulations to them. The first win in December was the last game before the Knicks traded for OG Anunoby. The win in January came with Jalen Brunson sitting out the MLK Day matinee. And the third Magic win came against an injury-depleted Knicks team before the All-Star Break.

Fast forward to the beginning of March and the box score told a very, very different story.

The Magic were in fourth in the Eastern Conference, as high as they had been since the first 20 games of the year. New York, sitting right below them, were hungry to avoid a season sweep in a playoff-like atmosphere. A small litmus test of what may be coming once records turn to seeds.

Orlando suffered their worst defeat of the season, 98-74 -- with that 74 at the time the lowest points scored by any team in the league this year (ironically broken by the New York Knicks two days later in a 79-73 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers).

New York, while not breaking 100 points that night, leaned on an element to the team's offense that has been average across the NBA but a back-breaker to the Magic if effective: three-point shooting.

The Knicks connected on eight of their first nine attempts, building a double-digit lead just four minutes after the tip.

"Coach said that is what a playoff game is like so we gotta look at this game and adjust,” Paolo Banchero said after the loss in New York.

Matchup-wise, however, there is not a ton to adjust on Orlando's side.

As far as star player matchups, Orlando has done a great job limiting power forwards, including Julius Randle (who would miss a potential series with a shoulder injury). The Magic rank as the second-best defense against power fowards across the league (with a 20.45 points per game this season).

Even with Randle out, the Magic use their size effectively. It is one of their biggest advantages.

“We got some big bodies down there, too,” Magic guard Cole Anthony quipped on holding Randle to a quiet night in the win at Madison Square Garden. “We got like eight 7-footers on this team. And they all play their part pretty well. … We just did a great job putting some bodies on him and baited him into taking some tough 2s.

Eight may be a little bit of a stretch, but give Anthony some slack -- they are the second-tallest team in the NBA, trailing only San Antonio Spurs. It is a recipe for success for this Orlando team that thrives once opposing teams cross the three-point line. Less space for the offense to operate means the Magic can double out at the free throws, then make quick switches if the ball skips to the corner or crash the ball if it goes inside.

The big weakness for Orlando in a hypothetical playoff series would be Jalen Brunson.

The Magic are one of the five worst teams defending point guards and Brunson has thrived against the weaker contingent of guards. He has scored more than 20 in the three matchups he has appeared in this season, including 33 on Valentine's Day.

With rookie Anthony Black as the primary defender in that February matchup, Brunson was deadly from deep, making 5 of 8 three-point attempts.

But where New York dices up the Magic defense was with their litany of pick-and-roll actions to get a big on Brunson. This allows him to use his shiftiness to either attack the basket or pull up in the midrange. He's a tough three-level scorer for his size (one of the best in the NBA).

This is a winnable playoff matchup for Orlando in this spot. They have the pieces to match up star-for-star but need to limit the outside scoring threat in Brunson to maintain an advantage dow nthe stretch.

How the Orlando Magic stack up with each playoff opponent

Indiana Pacers (6th)

Recent struggles for the Indiana Pacers are resulting in an underwhelming month of March, but that cannot be a reason for Orlando to look at them any lighter.

While not towering over the league with 127 points per game (as they were back in November), they still have the NBA's top offense by the raw scoring, led by All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and mid-season acquisition Pascal Siakam.

Despite the success, recent performances by Haliburton are the microcosm of a post-All-Star break team showing why they finished five games out of the Play-In last year. Haliburton himself is shooting 30.1 percent from three since the All-Star Break -- a stark contrast to his 40.0 percent number before lacing it up at All-Star Weekend.

The team? Similar story. Hanging right around .500 at 14-9 since the break, Indiana went from being two games from third around the All-Star break to a non-guarantee at a full playoff spot.

This is a team teetering around the 6-seed and the Play-In.

A late run with a schedule just as easy as Orlando's down the stretch (Indiana and Orlando have the 13th and 14th-toughest strength of schedule remaining) could vault them into a possible 4-5 matchup in the postseason -- or a 3-6 if the Orlando Magic stay ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers this week.

In matchups this season, Orlando went 2-0 pre-Siakam trade. The Magic shot a combined 82 free throws in those two wins -- resulting in 68 points to the Pacers' 33.

In March, the game featured two fully healthy teams (and Pascal Siakam), Indiana handed Orlando one of just three home losses since the All-Star break. After making seven of their first 23 shots, Indiana erupted out of a 15-point hole thanks to a TJ McConnell/Obi Toppin bench duo that combined for 34 points down the stretch.

The big X-Factor if Orlando gets matched up in a series is pace.

The Pacers push the pace (ironically). Second to only the Washington Wizards, the Indiana Pacers' speed, particularly in transition, has been their biggest strength. As a team, their 26.3 points per game in transition ranks third in the NBA, just one of the statistics that personifies one of the highest-scoring offenses in league history.

The Magic, while a top half-court defense in the NBA, sit more in the middle of the pack in transition defense, shown perfectly in their March playoff preview matchup.

“We just didn’t do a great job of having that sense of urgency, to sprint back,” Cole Anthony noted after that loss. “I know Toppin had five or six layups where he just outran everyone down the court. That can’t happen. That’s their style. They’re comfortable in it. We let them play their game.”

The identity behind a top-three defensive unit in Orlando is a swarm of switches, double teams and collapses as soon as the ball touches the hands of opposing players.

For the Magic to get out of this potential series, they will have to shoot efficiently to have a shot. At 24-1 when shooting better tahn 50 percent from the field (the lone loss coming to Dallas on Jan. 29), Orlando will need to win the battle of percentages in the halfcourt to escape this matchup.

Still, among the matchups the Magic could see in the Playoffs, this feels like the most likely for the Magic to win. The Pacers have a style the Magic have done well to slow down this year and they lack the Playoff experience that could put the Magic in a bind.

How the Orlando Magic stack up with each playoff opponent

Miami Heat (8th)

The reigning Eastern Conference champions may be the most confusing team in the NBA. Last year, the Eastern Conference's 8-seed blitzed the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and survived a seven-game series against the Boston Celtics for a trip to the NBA Finals.

Once again this season, Miami finds itself in the Play-In late in the season. Orlando, despite holding a better record, posted a 1-3 record in four games against Miami. It feels like the one matchup Orlando would most like to avoid.

In their one win, however, the Magic showcased one of their best "playoff-like" performances this season. The opening-day starting five were in the lineup together for the first time in almost three months for this Jan. 21 matchup (Markelle Fultz-Jalen Suggs-Franz Wagner-Paolo Banchero-Wendell Carter) and made quick work of the Heat, holding them to a season-low 87 points.

All five starters went for double-digit scoring efforts (Banchero leading the way with 20) to turn the corner on a rough two-month stretch at the Kia Center. An 8-23 record dating back to December. The Heat shot 37.5 percent and had 18 turnovers in the first of two times Miami was held to less than 100 points this season against Orlando (the only team to do it twice).

“It felt good to have everyone back tonight, and it’s good to see how effective our defense is when we have that unit in,” Markelle Fultz said after one of his stronger all-around performances of the season.

This postseason, it is fairly unlikely we get a Battle of the Sunshine State, given the current state of the standings. The Heat's loss to the Pacers on Sunday made getting out of the Play-In that much tougher. But Orlando can still climb to the 2-seed and face off against the Heat as a Play-In winner.

Orlando will need a healthy frontcourt to defend the biggest source of trouble on Miami's roster: Bam Adebayo. He is averaging 18.8 points per game, 9.3 rebounds per game and 4.8 assists per game in four regular season contests this year. Adebayo is an above-average glass-cleaner and does well for Miami getting second-chance points.

Limiting Adebayo's offensive output, especially against backup bigs in Goga Bitadze and Moe Wagner, will be a big point of contention in a potential playoff series.

Adebayo is able to stretch the floor too, which draws Orlando's top-10 defense inside the paint out on the perimeter, spreading the team thin, allowing for Adebayo to operate in more spacing (whether that be a drive, pull-up, or dish to an open man).

How the Magic stack up with each playoff opponent

Philadelphia 76ers (7th)

Those sneaky Philadelphia 76ers.

The Philadelphia 76ers struggled without Joel Embiid, going 10-18 with him out of the lineup after tearing his meniscus. But they never lost a grip on a Playoff spot. Now they have won five straight. Embiid is back and looking like an All-Star again. And suddenly they are breathing down the neck for the 3-seed -- with the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets all at home remaining on their schedule.

The Magic certainly have not forgotten about them, given the pair of blowouts the 76ers gave them around the turn of the calendar year.

With or without the reigning NBA MVP, Philadelphia made quick work of the hometown Magic at a point in the season where it felt like Philadelphia was secure as a top-three seed in the East. The Sixers are starting to play like that again.

Much has changed since -- Orlando is fighting for a top seed in the East, while the 76ers lurk in the Play-In, likely to make some real noise if they secure a spot in the Playoffs. Magic coach Jamahl Mosley knows the threat of Joel Embiid now that he is back in time for the postseason.

“He’s the MVP for a reason,” said Mosley. “I mean we can have every game plan, you can have every scheme, but you know he’s getting to the area – and you put a hand on him it turns into a foul. If you don’t put a hand on him, he’s making that 15-, 17-footer that he’s shooting at a 60 percent clip.”

This was evident in their Jan. 19 matchup.

After losing by 20 a few weeks prior without having to deal with the MVP, Orlando's chances at a rebound against the club was a losing battle as the first half drew to a close. Clinging to a one-point lead, Orlando fell victim to an 11-0 run by Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey -- complete with an off-the-glass-to-himself alley-oop to give the visitors a 62-52 lead. Both Embiid and Maxey had 30 points in that game giving the Magic no relief.

On the positive end, Wendell Carter posted one of his best games despite being defended by Joel Embiid -- his 25 points and 11 rebounds in just 26 minutes led the way in both categories for the Magic in a game they failed to lead from that one-point advantage late in the second.

If a 76ers-Magic Playoff series came to fruition, Carter's production -- as it was against New Orleans last week -- will need to be more consistent against Embiid.

On the offensive end, Carter has improved mightily since returning from injury this year. He is averaging 15.9 and 8.8 rebounds in games taking more than eight shots per contest against the Sixers. Getting Wendell Carter involved on the ball allows this Magic team to spread the floor, allowing for more isolated chances for Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner

It is shown most notably in Jamahl Mosley's 'Delay Chicago' action -- Carter has recently been the recipient underneath as the lone big on the floor and uses Banchero or Wagner as decoys out on the wing.

This will be a key action against Phildelphia this postseason.

Carter's playmaking and quick-decisionmaking in this action -- using him as a roller and a receiver in the middle of the floor -- will force Embiid to defend outside the paint and allows the Magic's two top scorers many chances at getting to the basket in more isolated situations.